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  #1  
Old 11-29-2007, 03:32 PM
SenatorKevin SenatorKevin is offline
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Default How far will bonds go?

For those that are very familiar with the bond market, what's your take on the current bond run? Do you think if the economy sags in `08 that we have a legitimate shot of hitting the yields seen right before the Iraq war started?
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  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:26 PM
NajdorfDefense NajdorfDefense is offline
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Default Re: How far will bonds go?

yes
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  #3  
Old 11-29-2007, 07:52 PM
PRE PRE is offline
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Default Re: How far will bonds go?

U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets.
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  #4  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:01 PM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Default Re: How far will bonds go?

[ QUOTE ]
U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets.

[/ QUOTE ]

define recession.

Barron
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  #5  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:09 PM
smbruin22 smbruin22 is offline
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Default Re: How far will bonds go?

recession has a very specific meaning. i think it's two quarters of negative year over year real GNP growth.

recession definition is basically a point.... i think better question is major recession, although not sure that many economists are even calling for recession yet.

check out michael rosenburg from merrill lynch. he's been very pessimistic for quite awhile... i think hoisington is all over very low rates.. i think pimco too, but not certain of that.
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  #6  
Old 11-29-2007, 08:20 PM
SenatorKevin SenatorKevin is offline
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Default Re: How far will bonds go?

95% in the next two quarters? Seems a little early. I'd say Q3 of `08 would be more likely due to the massive number of subprime loans coming up for reset in Q1/Q2.
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  #7  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:04 PM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
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Default Re: How far will bonds go?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets.

[/ QUOTE ]

define recession.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

The National Bureau of Economic Research is accepted as the official government determination of when a recession occurs. It is normally (but not always) two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. They do take other factors into consideration.

Recessions

Jimbo
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  #8  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:26 PM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Default Re: How far will bonds go?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets.

[/ QUOTE ]

define recession.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

The National Bureau of Economic Research is accepted as the official government determination of when a recession occurs. It is normally (but not always) two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. They do take other factors into consideration.

Recessions

Jimbo

[/ QUOTE ]

I wanted to get PRE's definition of recession...for betting purposes.

Barron
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  #9  
Old 12-01-2007, 05:18 AM
Preem Preem is offline
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Default Re: How far will bonds go?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
U.S. has a 95% chance of hitting a recession within the next two quarters IMO. Bond markets are doing a much better job of pricing this in than the equity markets.

[/ QUOTE ]
define recession.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]
The National Bureau of Economic Research is accepted as the official government determination of when a recession occurs. It is normally (but not always) two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. They do take other factors into consideration.
Recessions

Jimbo

[/ QUOTE ]
The interesting thing about recessions is that we don't know about them until after they have happened because it takes a while to gather GDP data.

Another interesting thing about recessions is that the media periodically polls the public, "Do you think we're in a recession?"

Recessions are pretty cut and dried and are not the result of a popular vote.
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