Party $400 Over Agg ?

[BadBenOni]

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1640185

Not sure about the flop action,
I think my checkraise is a bit big,
but he should probably fold his 1 pair no draw.

I think we both overplayed our hands, but maybe its OK ?

[chucky]

Therefore, you need him fold about 7% of the time to break even. Since villian will never fold with a flush draw, you need 10.5% FE against bare aces to break even. I think you make those numbers.

[OrrLives]

Do you have any reads on villain? Would he be willing to three bet preflop with a non-AAXX hand?

I would be more willing to gamble if the board was rainbow. There is always a threat of being up against a heart flush draw. But if villain doesn't have a heart flush draw perhaps he would be scared that you do. Your c/r is not bad if you think there is some FE.


It is almost even money on the flop.
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Qs Kh 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Js Tc 6h 386 47.07 425 51.83 9 1.10 0.476
Ks 2s Ad Ah 425 51.83 386 47.07 9 1.10 0.524


But if villain has a heart flush draw, you are way behind.
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Qs Kh 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Js Tc 6h 241 29.39 575 70.12 4 0.49 0.296
Ks Ad Ah 2h 575 70.12 241 29.39 4 0.49 0.704

[Flip-Flop]

I was thinking about if the flop raise was necessary and my conclusion is that the vilian`s hand screams AAxx and he was gonna put his money in regardless of the turn and you knowing that you ain`t folding to AA so it`s better to put him all in when your equity is highest... on flop.
Only thing to worry about are the hearts but oh well.

[sqwisssssss]

fold pre flop

knowing what villan's hand was, you played it very good. villan over played his hand.

not knowing exactly what villan had until the cards get flipped over.......your play is still fine. its a very aggressive play but you had great fold equity against some one like myself.......but not against villan.

[blopp]

Its good, also for image. He is donk. Wp.

[BadBenOni]

Thanks for all the feedback, good to know it was OK.

Guess there is no other way to play it, cant fold to what could be a button steal,
stacks are so short a call leaves you more or less comitted.

Im surprised you all find it so easy to put him on AA,
a button raise into limpers could be almost anything.

I thought I had good fold equity because he could be stealing with almost anything.
I was expecting to be behind if called, most flush draws are ahead and he could have a set,
But I thought his range was huge so my fold equity was good.

[chucky]

Two things. One your didnt hide the villian's hand. Two, the villian 3 bet preflop from late position. If villian 3 bets with middle to low wraps then the analysis of FE wont matter on that flop. Everyone focused on AAxx because that was the only segment of the range where FE exists and you are not ahead.

[iggymcfly]

Might as well just lead here. He's almost never folding if you check/raise since he'll be so committed and while a good player will shove over your lead with AA, at least that gives you the chance to get a fold.

[TheRempel]

You both played it bad, but he played it better than you. You know he has two aces, and you have the ace of spades. There is a 22% chance that he has the nut flush draw (2/3 he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 1/3 that he has another heart). 22% of the time you will have 8 outs and win approximately 30% of the time. Even if we are generous and say you have the full 12 outs giving you about 44% equity the remainder of the time, your total equity is 0.30(0.22)+0.70(.44)= 37.4%. That means you have to make up a fair chunk of equity when he doesn't have the nut flush draw and folds just to push your hand into a profitable bluff. Keep in mind that this is also a best case scenario where he has no blockers.

Since players on party rarely ever fold aces in a reraised pot on the flop vs a single checkraise you played it poorly. Your opponent, probably having seen you play similar hands previous, called with 'one pair' getting better than 5:2 on his money.