How many callers does Buzz need?

[Phat Mack]

[ QUOTE ]
I just needed four opponents out of the five to chase in order to have favorable odds to bet. Here’s the reasoning:

Since a king flush is going to lose to an ace flush about one time out of three, let’s only count two thirds of the clubs as outs. That would have us counting 6 outs for the club flush. But, since one of those is the ten which pairs the board, let’s only count five club outs.

Note that 8*2/3 is actually 5.33, rather than 5. But 5 is close enough.

Then we also have 3 outs for the Broadway. But since we’ll have to split with another Broadway some of the time, those 3 outs are actually slightly less than 3. But 3 is close enough.

Thus we have a total of about 8 outs. And we have two chances.
Here’s the math set-up for the next step:
(8/44) + (36/44)*(8/43)

Then solving (8/44) + (6.7/44) = (14.7/44) = about one third.

Thus we expect to win about one third of the time and lose two thirds of the time. We lose one chip on each of the two times we lose. Therefore we need to win two chips each time we win.

With two callers, we should have roughly a break even proposition.


[/ QUOTE ]

Buzz is pondering a flop bet in his March article. He starts by saying we need 4 callers, but then ends by saying we need 2. This is what puzzles me: the math says he is 2:1 dog for hitting his hand, but the math is figured for the next two cards. Betting the flop only gets us one card. We may have to pay more to see the river. It's possible that the flop bet will provide us the right price for betting or calling the turn if we miss, but is the flop bet itself correct? We are getting 2:1 for an 8/44 shot. I think needing 4 callers is more correct.