50% returns on small amounts?

[TrainHardDieHard]

Carl Icahn's hedge fund was up 56% last year and he took 50% profits. He is on pace to break that this year. He owns more than 13% in BEAS, which just recieved a buyout offer from Oracle. Icahn is up more than 50% in this holding since taking a stake in that company. This should boost his whole portfolio up by 3-4%.

You're stupid if you don't think Icahn can average 50% returns over any period of time(even 50+ years) if he was controlling a more modest amount, like 1,000,000.

And you don't just have to be a hedge fund manager or insanely talented. Look for emerging markets, learn T/A, learn F/A, seek undervalued stocks, insider buying, listen to the conference calls, learn options, and always follow the global/domestic economy.

Averaging 50% per year is DEFINITELY sustainable.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Carl Icahn's hedge fund was up 56% last year and he took 50% profits. He is on pace to break that this year. He owns more than 13% in BEAS, which just recieved a buyout offer from Oracle. Icahn is up more than 50% in this holding since taking a stake in that company. This should boost his whole portfolio up by 3-4%.

You're stupid if you don't think Icahn can average 50% returns over any period of time(even 50+ years) if he was controlling a more modest amount, like 1,000,000.

And you don't just have to be a hedge fund manager or insanely talented. Look for emerging markets, learn T/A, learn F/A, seek undervalued stocks, insider buying, listen to the conference calls, learn options, and always follow the global/domestic economy.

Averaging 50% per year is DEFINITELY sustainable.

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while you might be right, if you think that making 50%/year over 2 years in a bull market (with leverage?) is evidence of 50% being definitely sustainable, you are severely mistaken.

[Henry17]

Carl Icahn is not a suitable example for what you are trying to prove. He is not a passive investor. The reason BEAS is up 13% is because Icahn bought it. Had I bought the same amount of stock instead of Icahn BEAS would not have gone up. So yes someone like Carl Icahn might be able to sustain very high returns but normal mortals have such a low probability of sustaining 50% returns over a 10 year period that it is safe to say the probability is zero.

[TrainHardDieHard]

[ QUOTE ]
Carl Icahn is not a suitable example for what you are trying to prove. He is not a passive investor. The reason BEAS is up 13% is because Icahn bought it. Had I bought the same amount of stock instead of Icahn BEAS would not have gone up. So yes someone like Carl Icahn might be able to sustain very high returns but normal mortals have such a low probability of sustaining 50% returns over a 10 year period that it is safe to say the probability is zero.

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First, you didn't even correctly read my post. BEAS is up 50% since Icahn bought it. He OWNS a 13% of the COMPANY. Its up because it receieved a BUYOUT offer from ORACLE.

Second, another reading failure, in my post directly after the Icahn story, I mentioned how you do not have to be a hedge fund manager to sustain those rates. If you put the effort into learning some analysis, ect., 50% is definitely sustainable for an intelligent trader/investor.

[Henry17]

[ QUOTE ]
First, you didn't even correctly read my post. BEAS is up 50% since Icahn bought it. He OWNS a 13% of the COMPANY. Its up because it receieved a BUYOUT offer from ORACLE.

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Actually no. BEAS went up 5% the day Ichan disclosed his stake in the company on speculation that he would force a sale.

[ QUOTE ]
Second, another reading failure, in my post directly after the Icahn story, I mentioned how you do not have to be a hedge fund manager to sustain those rates. If you put the effort into learning some analysis, ect., 50% is definitely sustainable for an intelligent trader/investor.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you said that. I'm saying it isn't possible. If there was a way to test it now I would wager my entire net worth that you could not exceed 50% a year for 10 years without doing anything illegal. Unfortunately there is no way to prove that short of waiting 10 years and then checking in with you again and that is just too much work.

How many years in a row have you managed to make over 50%?

Also I don't mean to be a prick but you start a thread asking how to calculate compound interest and then you turn around and claim you can generate 50% returns. Why would anyone believe that given you can't do basic math?

[Jimbo]

I made 86% on a covered call option today. Does that make me a stock savant? Please tell me how long before I have too much money so that I won't be able to sustain my 86% per day increase.

Jimbo