Party Poker, 50NL, and the state of things

[Abramovic]

I think 10 BI Downswings are possible purely because the games are more aggressive both pre and post flop.

My biggest so far was 9 BIs at Party and Ive only played there 1 month, and it lasted 10-15k hands.

I lost 5 BIs in 500 hands and I dont think I misplayed one. If that can happen, 10 BI prolonged downswings are bound to happen regardless of how well you play.

I play much nittier on party 50NL than I used to at Ongame 100NL, and still I experience a lot of variance. You guys who are trying to play LAG there must experience even bigger swings?

I dont really know, I dont have a big sample there (Im ridiculously lazy), but I dont think a 10 BI swing means you're playing terrible.

[Peter Harris]

agreed, party nl50 is still super beatable if you study the game.

[Superman26gt]

ama = new aba

[DannyOcean_]

How does one get the title "Euro Smegma"? Just curious
/hijack

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
How does one get the title "Euro Smegma"? Just curious
/hijack

[/ QUOTE ]

click my name, follow the links and all will be revealed.

[Chomp]

Ama, dude, I have so many issues with this post. I'll mention 5 and might come back for more tomorrow...(I'm tired so this is a bit of a rant)...

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1. Some of us who are complaining about PP never played there in the "old days". So it is not a question of relativity, it's a question of absolutes. I couldn't give a rat's ass about PP in 2005. I care about PP today. So let's park the first 2 paras of your post as I think they are irrelevent.

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2. There are so many contradictory explanations of your downswing. Actually, there are 3:

a. Bad play
[ QUOTE ]
Countless errors. Preflop. Postflop. Combo-street errors. Bet size errors. Read errors. Aggression errors. I realised that I didn't even bother to count my outs anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

b. Bad luck
[ QUOTE ]
Of my 10bi, Id say about 5-6 were genuine bad beats.

[/ QUOTE ]

c. "Sometimes you have to lose"
Here, I cross ref your post from a few weeks ago stating that sometimes you have to lose with the best hand (which I'm sure everyone remembers).


So which is it? You seem all over the place on this. If it is all three, then I think your downswing is exactly the same as recent downswings by Trig or me. In fact, it would be a bit ironic if your post was essentially the same as other DS-moaning posts, but the above quotes seem to suggest it might be mate!

Further, neither Trig nor I said our DSs were 100% bad beats. Sure, you might get that impression from our moaning posts that we think that, but that does not mean we are not aware of LOADS of bad plays and LOADS of standard 70/30 situations not holding up. All these things go together and anyone with half a brain should be able to understand this.

This is why I disagree with this too...

[ QUOTE ]
But you are so [censored] deluded if you think you can have a 10bi+ ds at 50nl and play every hand perfect. NO WAY.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody ever said you play every hand perfectly during a DS. But the small technical errors you mention like incorrect bet sizing or too little aggression explain a bad winrate, but they do not explain a 17BI DS. Surely you can agree with that? The former is about dropping marginal edges that would boost a wr. The latter is about a perfect storm of bad beats, losing too many 60/40's in a row and a few big mistakes. Jesus, as I showed with the above quotes from your posts, you have admitted as much yourself!

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3. Back to your 10BI downswing. Firstly, good job admitting it because lots of people don't. But here's the thing...how do you know it won't turn into a 17BI's DS? That's a very thin line....is there really that big a difference between a 10 and 17 BI downswing? I really don't think so. You get 2 quick AA-KK situations tomorrow morning, tilt 2 more away after that and boom!, suddenly it's 14BI's. So when you say...

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody who is a winning player below NL25 should ever, ever be going on a 17bi ds

[/ QUOTE ]

...I think you are on very thin ice there.

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4. Grrrrrrrrrrrrr....

[ QUOTE ]
If you just go "durr raise 18% preflop" and do not consider how this fits into your game as a whole... well [censored] yeah, youre gonna lose a LOT of money.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ama, you think that people trying to improve their game here read that durrr raises 18% of hands and then do that too? Jesus man, you're here every day, you see people debating in threads. How in the name of Christ have you come to the conclusion that "people, myself included, just do not think about their games". This is NONSENSE. Some of us think about our games all day (I know you probably do from the quality of your posts).

But thinking about the game IS NOT THE SAME as being able to put it readily into practice. You seem to be saying that if you think about your game you'll automatically improve. Garbage. It is not that simple.

For exapmple, I understand 3betting light can be profitable. I've seen posts about it. I've thought about it. But do I do it? No, not very often. Why? Precisely because I am thinking about the WHY of 3b light. But thinking about it is not the same thing as being good enough (or, having the skill) to fix the problem. But that does not mean people are merely pressing buttons like robots.

Fwiw, I agree that we ALL get into bad habits, but that is different to what you are talking about above, which seems to me to be about a more profound laziness that I simply don't recognise from many poster here.

Fwiw, I don't even know who durrr is.

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5. Next...this para...

[ QUOTE ]
So instead of saying "wow I'm leaving Party the games are so tough

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't see anyone saying this. My last post on this matter merely said the players at PP aren't so bad that the lack of RB makes it overwhlemingly worthwhile playing there. It is probably a marginal call one way or the other.

[ QUOTE ]
maybe you should say "there's a huge chance that I suck. I should look into that"

[/ QUOTE ]

People admit this on these forums every day. My loaction admits as much for Chrissakes - with absolutely ZERO irony. I get the impression that 95% of uNL regs are fully aware of their limitations. So I don't think it's fair to suggest they are unaware of this fact.

[ QUOTE ]
and start trying to play in such a way that you don't need rb to turn a nice profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please tell me you are not suggesting wilfully giving up an edge the size of 1ptbb/100+? Isn't wr + rb > wr alone? If yes, then it is utter nonsense to decray people saying they won't go without RB. And of course the pursuit of a better wr need not preclude the pursuit of better rb...the 2 can go together.

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Finally, obviously this post is made in the spirit of healthy debate and I mean no edge to come across at all.

[Speedlimits]

People on party have it so easyyyyy. It's way easier than any other site on the net so if you're losing at party you need to get a coach or quit. Secondly, it's [censored] HARD to find leaks by yourself. You need to have a coach/friend that is actually good go over your game and watch you play because you won't be objective about your game.

Everyone should have a coach at $50NL+ and make sure they are qualified.

[flyerr]

ama, nice read. but i cant say i agree with everything you said.

You are assuming no one at uNL is thinking about their games and are all playing a "robotized" game. That assumption from you is a little egocentric. Just because you reached a part of your evolution as a poker player where you realizes you needed to think more about what you were doing, doesnt mean that everyone here at 2+2 is not doing it/ has never done it. I myself have stoped playing for 1 week trying to study my own game and find leaks. Most people will do it in their poker life span.

As for PP, i dont know as I have never played there. But regarding the profit with or without RB, why would someone give up on free money? I dont think that players at NL50 are that bad in PP that they can compensate on 500$+ each month for me.

PS- Good luck to recovering that DS!

[derosnec]

[ QUOTE ]
I wont say harder, because I don't believe that the games are any less profitable than they were pre-UIEGA

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree with this and so do alot of other people on 2+2 (from posts i've read)

trying to squeeze a profit from a table of 18/11s or one-tabling a juicy game isn't as profitable as pre-ban party

esit: oops, this is a Party thread. i haven't played there since the ban, so i have no idea what the games are like

[Triggerle]

Ama,

Poker often misleads us with regard to cause and effect because it is such a complex game that any experience we have (and base our intuitive opinions on) is only a tiny fraction of the whole picture. This is why a mathematical approach often produces counter-intuitive results. This is also why the fish stay bad. Often bad play is rewarded and an intuitive approach reconfirms this bad play.

I think you are blessed that your biggest downswing so far was 10 buy-ins but you are a fish in the above sense with regard to thinking that you can extrapolate from that that bigger downswings are not possible or that it was your relative skill that has so far saved you from having them.

That said, of course I didn't play perfect during the last 15k hands that this downswing encompasses. If I could play perfect I would get myself staked to play against Sammy Farha.

This is not meant as defensive or lashing out back at you because you used me as an example in your rant. (I actually respect you very much because you went out of your way to help me out before.) I simply think you are wrong in a mathematical sense.

As I have stated repeatedly I'm less sick about these 17 buy-ins than most readers, because I have analysed my play and have an idea where they come from.