Non-nut flush draw

kiemo · #1 12-22-2006, 10:49 AM

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (13.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

Given how this table was playing. Preflop raiser probably has AA-QQ/AK/AQ.

Preflop - this is a hand I normally muck and I normally play around a 15.5 vpip, which is generally considered a bit too tight. So I have made a concentrated effort to find spots to play more hands and of particular concern was calling raises out of the blinds. This hand isnt all that great and possibly should be mucked, but with getting 7.5-1 closing the action I felt it was a good chance to take.

Flop - I dont think leading out will make 3 people fold so I decide to go for a check raise to build the pot. I wasnt prepared for the reraise by MP2 and went into a shell. Is a 3-bet in order here?

Turn & River are standard.

Overall - this is why I like to avoid playing these hands and why I keep my VPIP low, becuase it really seems like every time I play one of these speculative hands I get stuck for 3+bb becuase my normally straight forward opponents all of sudden decide to get fancy.

kerowo · #2 12-22-2006, 11:51 AM

Standard. Next time river your flush.

Seriously though, this is variance. You played the hand correctly and lost. If you play this hand correctly every time you will make money... in the long run. Folding this hand pre-flop getting 7:1 and closing the action would have been too tight. The rest of the hand your getting odds to go after the flush. Folding before the river would have been wrong.

justkevin · #3 12-22-2006, 11:52 AM

*grunch*

Preflop: I'm not playing Q6s against a raise.

Flop: Here the pot odds are about 5:1 and your draw odds are about 4:1. But the betting may continue, and the Ah may be out there. I'd say fold.

Turn: You got trapped here, but at this point you have to call.

antneye · #4 12-22-2006, 11:59 AM

I am not sure I agree with kerowo here. I think the flop call is borderline, and I won't argue with calling or folding. I think any thought of a check raise here is spew because we are OOP and not likely to get a free card.

To me the flop and turn are very interesting. We are looking to check call getting odds to draw, but it comes back to us as 2 bets......now granted we are getting the right odds to call here (5.75 - 1) but we are caught in a sandwich and could end up having MP1 re-raise and end up having to put in another 1 or 2 SB's just to see the turn. I may muck this at this point.

Turn is also interesting...Now we are getting 8-1, but we don't close the action and have to fear a check/raise is possible. We have no choice but to call, but I think this shows how tough these hands can be OOP.

I probably fold this pre-flop and if I did call I would get away from it on the flop. Now if this was A6 suited I think I play it exactly the same as OP.

kerowo · #5 12-22-2006, 12:08 PM

You guys are noticing that the Kh is on the board right? Meaning we have the second nut flush draw, meaning most of the time if this turns into the rare flush over flush situation we are going to be winning. Implied odds make calling correct on every street. If you are folding this on the flop you are throwing away money.

NIX · #6 12-22-2006, 12:18 PM

If you are that sure that the PFRer has QQ+/AQ+, leading the flop isn't good as the majority of the time, he raises and potentially shuts out people behind him.

Everything looks good to me.

justkevin · #7 12-22-2006, 12:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are noticing that the Kh is on the board right? Meaning we have the second nut flush draw, meaning most of the time if this turns into the rare flush over flush situation we are going to be winning. Implied odds make calling correct on every street. If you are folding this on the flop you are throwing away money.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's second nut, but in a worse way than if the Ah were on the board (i.e., someone would need Kxs to beat us instead of the much more popular Axs). Assuming an average of 1 more bet and everyone stays, we're getting 4.5 to 1. Easy call for the nuts, less so otherwise.

I'm not saying a fold is obviously the correct choice, just that it's not an easy call.

kerowo · #8 12-22-2006, 12:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You guys are noticing that the Kh is on the board right? Meaning we have the second nut flush draw, meaning most of the time if this turns into the rare flush over flush situation we are going to be winning. Implied odds make calling correct on every street. If you are folding this on the flop you are throwing away money.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's second nut, but in a worse way than if the Ah were on the board (i.e., someone would need Kxs to beat us instead of the much more popular Axs). Assuming an average of 1 more bet and everyone stays, we're getting 4.5 to 1. Easy call for the nuts, less so otherwise.

I'm not saying a fold is obviously the correct choice, just that it's not an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fearing the nut flush draw while holding the 2nd nut flush draw is MUBS.

ottsville · #9 12-22-2006, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given how this table was playing. Preflop raiser probably has AA-QQ/AK/AQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this your thought PF as well for this raiser? What range are you thinking for the coldcallers?

I think the call is marginal.

Post flop is OK. I agree with not leading out on the flop and think a three bet would be spew since your margin is very thin with only two players. Being OOP and against aggression, you're never getting a free card here, so just calling is OK.

Marquis · #10 12-22-2006, 01:34 PM

This whole hand is played correctly. Folding the flop would be terrible.