My first PS Sunday Million - What would you do?

[Jan]

Okay, this was my first Sunday Million, typically I play in small buy-in $5 and $10 tournaments. In these small tournaments I'm going all the way with this hand, but how should I play this hand in a higher buy-in tournament?

In retrospect, I think I should have re-raised pre-flop.

Villian was in a lot of pots, and most of his bets were exceptionally large both pre-flop and post flop. He only showed down a couple of hands, both times weaker hands than would have been expected.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 (t9525)
Hero (t9900)
CO (t8100)
Button (t9500)
SB (t11150)
BB (t6050)
UTG (t10313)
UTG+1 (t9837)
MP1 (t15625)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t225</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t225, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls t125.

Flop: (t725) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">
MP1 bets t375</font>, <font color="#CC3333">
Hero raises to t1100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">
BB raises to t5825</font>,
MP1 folds,
Hero?

[AragornX151]

Given your read, you have to call here. He could be overplaying AQ and AJ, and a split with AK is certainly possible as well. He could have TT, AT, etc, and I'd fold to some players, but if he's been overbetting a lot of hands, I think you have to grit your teeth and call.

[AragornX151]

BTW, your read means he could also be overplaying a flush draw, etc. These types of players tend to gamble draws super heavy early in tourneys (and sometimes later too).

[LotsOfOuts69]

I dunno, isn't this supposed to be the great thing about deeper stacks?

If this were a 1500 chip tournament you'd be all-in without question.

I'd think about letting this go...

[whynot?]

you say the overbet was part of his schticck, so maybe dont read too much into that but he's certainly not encouraging action - if im him and i have AT, TT 33 etc i dont reraise near that much

im thinking its either a big ace who doesnt put you on ak since you only called pre or its kq sp, maybe 25 sp, something like that with a str8 and flush draw.

if you play ak like this these are the hands you want as the real strength of your hand is disguised - i'd find a call here based on your read and i assume your image as a bit tight

[AragornX151]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, isn't this supposed to be the great thing about deeper stacks?

If this were a 1500 chip tournament you'd be all-in without question.

I'd think about letting this go...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, the deep stacks thing allows for you to let it go if you feel you are beat, and I would against many opponents...but given his read, I take the chance to double up since there is a much higher chance than usual that you are ahead.

[RobertJohn]

Given how you’ve described him I think it’s a pretty close decision. You say that he plays a lot of pots, he bets exorbitant amounts pre and post flop, and he has shown down weaker hands than he has represented.

However, even a maniac will usually show up with a hand in this spot, since he is likely to get called. What is his shoving range here is the question.

Hands Beating You:

AT
A3
33
TT

Hands That Are Big Bluffs:

QsKs
KsJs

Hands You Beat:

AQ
AJ
A9
A8

Against this hand range you have 45% equity, meaning you have a nice overlay here getting 1.7-to-1 (the pot is 8025 and you have to call 4725).

You can ask some questions to narrow his range.

Which of the hands in his range is he likely to call a raise out of the BB with preflop?

Probably the suited broadway bluff cards (KQ,QJ of spades) and the two pair hands (A3, AT). He’s likely to call with 33, but TT and AA? He’d probably reraise considering how you’ve described him.

There is a difference between an aggressive player who likes to bluff and bet huge amounts and one who will just DONATE. For him to show up with a weak Ace after this action on the flop you would have to categorize him as a really bad player.

So if we wanted to weight the likelihood of each hand group we would get:

If he has a set or two-pair 40% of the time, and one of the hands you beat (bluffs and weaker Aces) 60% of the time, your equity equals 42% and you can call.

If he has the set or two pair 60% and the other hands the rest of time, now you only have 31% equity and you should fold.

So, if you have a read that he is reckless enough to shove his whole stack in there with a hand you beat soundly some % of the time, you can call.

[hamnegger]

i dont think this is a bad fold 10 10 or 33 possible or ace 10

[mariachiinc]

Him showing down weaker hands should be more reason to fold here. Some players cannot throw any ace away. A3, A 10, or 33 are very possible. I think you're beat here most of the time.
That said, this is still a tough fold... really dependant on your read and his past play.

[creamfillin]

There's too many draws that could be doing this to lay this down + you have a read on him that he tends to be maniacal/ overvalues his hands. I definitely lean call.