Dancing With the Stars 5

[llabb]

Assuming that Helio has been the long-time fav the whole way is simply due to people's capping. He has not been reported to be getting the most phone votes. (Unless you have other info, if so, link please?)

I would guess that he is the fav at the books simply because he looked good early in the season. The books do not cap fanbases much. The volume bet on this is too small for them to care much, hence oftentimes soft lines with low limits. They mainly go by judges' scores and whether they are better/worse dancers.

So Helio and Sabrina were the favs at the start of the season, understandably. When Sabrina started pulling away scoring-wise, she became the fav, and Helio was getting longer +odds. When Sabrina was surprise-booted, Helio was the only remaining fav, so his odds got real short.

Now that Mel's been getting better and better scores, her status has improved a lot also. If there were no prior history, the books would probably have Mel a very slight fav to Helio, and Marie a total dog.

That being said, I favor Helio to win but am wary of Marie's fanbase. If there were a 2-way finale between them, Helio would win. As is, with a 3-way finale, Marie's fanbase may still be strong enough, with other voters split between the two best dancers. Bets on Helio at +odds and Marie at long +odds are still decent imo.

Darko, your question is a basic issue of hedging and how much the money means to you/your bankroll. If it's not big deal, and you simply want EV, then just let it ride or hedge with Marie at long +odds. If you would be upset at losing the $50 on Helio, then hedge with the Bodog female at -130, although this is -EV imo. And at current odds, betting separately on Marie and Mel as a combined hedge sucks.

If it were me in your shoes, I'd make a small wager on Marie so that you win money whether Helio or Marie wins, regardless. At the amounts you listed, you can make it so that you have bet $145 total to win $330 equally whether Helio or Marie wins, or you can bet less so that you win more on Helio and less on Marie. It simply depends on how high you think Marie's chances of winning are, and also if you are willing to risk more money, even though Mel has a shot at winning and whether you are concerned about that. For me, I will win decent money whether either Helio or Marie wins, and will lose if Mel wins.