AQ - Applying the Baluga theorem to BvB

[Wolfram]

Villain is new at table so no read nor stats. He called the flop bet rather quickly (not insta-call though) then he thought for a long time before check/raising. Good fold or no?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $82.68
Hero (BB): $98.50
UTG: $103.59
BTN: $86.89

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
2 folds, SB calls $0.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.00</font>, SB calls $3.00

Flop: ($8) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $5.00</font>, SB calls $5.00

Turn: ($18) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $16.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $73.68</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $107.68

[sixhigh]

I'd bet more on the flop and don't know if Baluga applies to 80BB blind confrontations. You are getting 1:2 on the call. I can see me making this one. But folding can't be that bad either.

[keikiwai]

i don't think baluga applies here

there's a new draw on the board

your opponent is short

yes, this is J8 or A8 pretty often, but it can also be AT, A9 or a semibluff

it's pretty close imo

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't think baluga applies here

[/ QUOTE ]
Why not? Baluga states: if opponent check/calls flop and check/raises turn then one pair is rarely any good.

[HoldEmNewby]

blind vs blind makes people do stupid things.