River value?

emil3000 · #1 07-24-2006, 11:46 AM

Opponent is tight 20/15 guy, seems to be thinking. My image is probably pretty aggressive, I play like 26/19 or something, and bet a lot. Is there value in a river shove. To me it seems like he is calling me down with a king and a club, and has taken this line cause he thinks I'll bluff at it. He has $642 left on the river.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($178.75)
UTG ($400)
MP ($957)
CO ($1138.86)
Hero ($1214)
SB ($715)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
MP raises to $40, 1 fold, Hero calls $40, 2 folds.

Flop: ($95) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $75, MP calls $75.

Turn: ($245) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $200, MP calls $200.

River: ($645) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP checks,

Jamougha · #2 07-24-2006, 11:49 AM

He really has to think you're insane to call a river push with KQ.

psuasskicker · #3 07-24-2006, 11:49 AM

A solid read that he'll either fold A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Kx or call with Kx Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is pretty much what it takes for me to consider betting this river. Most times hands like these will call/fold (respectively), so I tend to think checking behind is a better play here.

- C -

emil3000 · #4 07-24-2006, 11:52 AM

OK, new question which has been raised in this thread. How often will I be able to fold out a split?

FGators · #5 07-24-2006, 12:47 PM

Is this a decent time to check the turn for pot control? Naked ace of clubs is probably calling $200 and we could be in big trouble to flopped flush. KQ might bet river and we can call showing down the winner. Same with ace of clubs. If we check turn it keeps pot small for flopped flush that we would pay off.

Too tight philosophy?

emil3000 · #6 07-24-2006, 03:15 PM

I don't think a turn check is unreasonable, but given what I put him on and that he seemed willing to call me down fairly lightly I bet it. I don't think this player checks a flush on the flop very often, if at all. Could be wrong tho.

Lucky · #7 07-24-2006, 03:22 PM

check river as played.

I also like turn check. Pretty fierce turn bet for 20/15 to call with KxQc. He's much more likely to bet river or call river bet the over 80% of time non club comes. However, its situational, if he hates you turn bet may be fine, but I think you'll get more money from tight players, by checkign and have action on non club river.

CopTHIS · #8 07-24-2006, 03:26 PM

Personally I'd generally check and be glad. Saying that, I think a lot of players (including me) lose a small amount of value in not making enough thin value bets. This doesn't look like an especially good spot to me, though I can understand it if you are seen as someone who will fire 3 barrels a fair amount of the time.

Leptyne · #9 07-24-2006, 04:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He really has to think you're insane to call a river push with KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain is a thinking TAG. I think I check behind.

Parlay Slow · #10 07-24-2006, 04:13 PM

uhhh shovvvvvve