Not sure what to do here.

Jailblazers · #1 09-20-2007, 09:31 PM

PokerStars 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, Button raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero ?.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

No reads on villains. Is this a call here? It seems that given Button's preflop and flop actions, he is on over-cards . So all we have to really worry about here is UTG. He has played this hand very weakly so is calling while getting 12-1 worth it the times that UTG has ace-high or pair 2s? Is my reasoning okay?

tyler_cracker · #2 09-20-2007, 09:39 PM

um, just fold. one of them can beat a pair of 3s.

voyamatarte · #3 09-20-2007, 09:46 PM

Even though you are playing super-micro-limits, you are not taking this down more than 12-1 times. I would be surprised if you can even take this down 20-1 times.

BigBadBabar · #4 09-20-2007, 09:49 PM

fold

HouseCalls · #5 09-20-2007, 10:50 PM

The better may be bluffing but the caller can't be... muck it.

maverickai · #6 09-21-2007, 11:38 AM

Flop can still be justified with a call, to see what brings on on the turn. However on the turn, let's say you have a OESD. But you are on the lower end and with only one of your pocket cards to complete the straight. Although a full OESD would give you 8 outs, I would discount it to only 4.5 outs, given someone could be calling with 78, or a diamond could have completed a flush for someone.

you have 2 more outs for a set of treys, but that could have completed someone's straight too. This I would discount to .5 out.

So total 5 outs -> you would need a pot size of 8.20. You had such pot odds to call on the turn, but it's really peeling thing. This is compounded by the fact that with 3 other players calling, their collective outs are doing no good to you. Should have folded on the turn.

However I ran the simulation on stove for the turn situation, and got these figures:

HERO w 33 32%
Villian w random 22%
Villian w random 23%
Villian w random 23%

To the veterans out there, since HERO is facing a pot odds of 9.25 on the turn to call, and he has a pot equity of 32%, does it mean it's ok to call? Since he 'owns' a big part of the pot compared to the amt he need to contribute.

bravos1 · #7 09-21-2007, 12:43 PM

OK... several problems with this post..
[ QUOTE ]
Flop can still be justified with a call, to see what brings on on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah..I'd say getting 10.5:1 here more than justifies a call.
[ QUOTE ]

However on the turn, let's say you have a OESD. But you are on the lower end and with only one of your pocket cards to complete the straight.

[/ QUOTE ]
While yes, only one of our cards completes the straight, most straights on this board will need a 3 and we have 2 of them reducing the chances that it comes in and we chop.
[ QUOTE ]

Although a full OESD would give you 8 outs, I would discount it to only 4.5 outs, given someone could be calling with 78, or a diamond could have completed a flush for someone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Discounting them that much because someone "could" have 78 is just ridiculous. Someone "could" also have 55/54/52 and we are drawing dead. We shouldn't discount because of 78, but we probably should discount our diamond outs, so I'd give ~7 outs for the OESD.
[ QUOTE ]

you have 2 more outs for a set of treys, but that could have completed someone's straight too. This I would discount to .5 out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm why would you discount here at all? if we catch a 3, we don't have a set of trey!!! We have a boat of trey over 5s. So 2 more full outs.

[ QUOTE ]

So total 5 outs -> you would need a pot size of 8.20. You had such pot odds to call on the turn, but it's really peeling thing. This is compounded by the fact that with 3 other players calling, their collective outs are doing no good to you. Should have folded on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding the turn is bad as you counted hero's outs poorly. On avg., I'd say we have 8-9 outs here.

[ QUOTE ]

However I ran the simulation on stove for the turn situation, and got these figures:

HERO w 33 32%
Villian w random 22%
Villian w random 23%
Villian w random 23%

To the veterans out there, since HERO is facing a pot odds of 9.25 on the turn to call, and he has a pot equity of 32%, does it mean it's ok to call? Since he 'owns' a big part of the pot compared to the amt he need to contribute.

[/ QUOTE ]

This stove is bad also because you put in random hands for the villians. You can be assured that by now they do not have random hands. Let's just give them each a hand that makes sense and see where we stand. BTW, finding a hand for button is tough because I'm trying to figure a hand where he raises PF, yet only calls the flop, and then leads the turn. But let's look at one scenario.. I can change it and make the numbers better or worse, but whatever. I usualy give ranges here, but went specific holdings as just a what-if.

Board: 4s 5d 2d 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.494% 17.49% 00.00% 6019818 0.00 { 3d3s }
Hand 1: 17.495% 17.49% 00.00% 6020295 0.00 { QdTd }
Hand 2: 07.500% 07.50% 00.00% 2580796 0.00 { 7h6h }
Hand 3: 57.512% 57.51% 00.00% 19790788 0.00 { KcKs }

IMO we have enough to peel the turn. The best card for us is a 3 (which you discounted the most) as it completes tons of straights, but boats us up.

BTW, as the hand played out... The river is a super easy fold!

ThunderEagle · #8 09-21-2007, 01:26 PM

Anyone else raise the flop here?

I'm raising the flop for a free card and to hopefully knock out Button with wiffed overs. I'm checking behind or just calling 1 big bet on the turn, and folding the river UI.

As played, river is a super easy fold as others have said.

Point Blank · #9 09-21-2007, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone else raise the flop here?

I'm raising the flop for a free card and to hopefully knock out Button with wiffed overs. I'm checking behind or just calling 1 big bet on the turn, and folding the river UI.

As played, river is a super easy fold as others have said.

[/ QUOTE ]

not after a bet and a call ... what do you care is BTN calls with overs (it's very unlikely that you have the best hand ... you want to guy to hit an Ace with AK)

if BB checks and UTG bets then raising it up if OK IMO

ThunderEagle · #10 09-21-2007, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
not after a bet and a call ... what do you care is BTN calls with overs

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you are saying, but it more applies to the free card. I raise so that I get checked to on the turn, and want button gone so that I have the option to take the free card. I really want to see the river card with this hand.

So, where does that thinking breakdown? I have got out of the habbit of reading and posting here, and my game got insanely sloppy. I've only just recently reigned things in again, and now I'm trying to tone things up.