AQos flops boat - lone villian leads out

Daniel Magix · #1 09-21-2007, 10:28 AM

PokerStars 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, SB completes, Hero raises, SB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero ?

We were 7-handed about one orbit prior, then the table started breaking up.

The answer may be very simple, but with only one opponent, I questioned whether the "right" play was to jack it up right there on the flop, or just call and let him lead the turn too, and then turn up the heat. Multiway, I probably wouldn't think about not raising - felling confident that at least one villian would come along for the ride with a flush or gutshot draw. I guess I just wondered if raising now, would potentially scare off my lone villian, and deny me a Turn and River bet.

bravos1 · #2 09-21-2007, 10:59 AM

it doesn't really matter... raise here and hope he 3bets or raise turn.. I tend to just raise now and if he 3bets, then I call and raise turn

bellatrix · #3 09-21-2007, 11:27 AM

Raise! The fact that he donked should mean he caught something, he'll re-raise any Q now or on the turn and he'll call with an Ace and pp. In the rare event that he was taking a stab at a scary board you wouldn't have made much money on the later streets anyway.

Daniel Magix · #4 09-21-2007, 12:02 PM

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Raise! The fact that he donked should mean he caught something, he'll re-raise any Q now or on the turn and he'll call with an Ace and pp. In the rare event that he was taking a stab at a scary board you wouldn't have made much money on the later streets anyway.

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That all makes sense. I guess I just really thought it was the latter - a stab at it. I wondered if a call on the flop would get me one more bet if he continued to bluff the Turn. But I guess I was overthinking the situation.

Xylocain · #5 09-21-2007, 12:35 PM

:g:

You have raped the deck so its not even funny.

Raising now will often make him fold... even so, your only chance of extractig value is if Villan actually donks with a made hand so bet, raise, pray for a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] turn.

Bona · #6 09-21-2007, 12:37 PM

HU with no one to overcall I think we have to raise. Giving him a free card is not really the problem but we don't want to give him his free card just to have him c/f the turn.

Aaron W. · #7 09-21-2007, 12:49 PM

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We were 7-handed about one orbit prior, then the table started breaking up.

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This is the only interesting aspect given the information you provided. If he has turned into a hyper-LAG because the number of players has dropped, you should pop him now and hope he goes nuts. If he seems to be playing "normal", you might be better of raising the turn and hoping he nails a flush.

ThunderEagle · #8 09-21-2007, 01:00 PM

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PokerStars 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (3 handed)

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Just raise now, if he has a Q he probably isn't letting it go for nothing.

You could just call and hope to raise the turn, but then getting a c/f sucks. You almost never get a bet/fold here (and it happens even less than that). At these limits I've found it usually doesn't pay to get tricky.

bravos1 · #9 09-21-2007, 01:15 PM

So in my initial response I said it really doesn't matter... I said this because hands like these are so rare, it is not going to affect your winrate at all basically, unless you fold.

Let's look at the possibilities of what he has...

1. Air - he is trying to bluff a super scary board it you have any PP up until JJ as well as KK. If we raise now, he will most likely fold. If we call, he will c/f the turn quite a bit and always fold to a turn raise if he does bluff again. So many times you are not getting any more money out of him irrespective to the line you take.
2. He has an ace. Most players have no concept of wa/wb and love to donk flops like this with an ace. Some are so predictable, it actually saves you bets in the long haul. So if he has an Ace and we raise, he will almost never fold to a raise and will actually call you down WAY too often. If we call and raise the turn, he actually may catch on that he is beat because that line is SUPER strong and you are only doing it w/ a Q or AA typically.
3. He actually has a Q and is playing it fast (hey, it happens). This is our best case scenario. If we raise, he will likely 3bet and then we can wait till the turn to pop him again. There is absolutely no way he folds a Q here ever, even if turn is another Ace as people just do not fold full houses (zeebo 101). In this case it would be awesome if the turn was like a 9-J as this really falls into his Qx defending range I would guess.

So after all that... now what. Raising here and fast playing is your best bet and is actually the least transparent that you have a monster.

Daniel Magix · #10 09-21-2007, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So in my initial response I said it really doesn't matter... I said this because hands like these are so rare, it is not going to affect your winrate at all basically, unless you fold.

Let's look at the possibilities of what he has...

1. Air - he is trying to bluff a super scary board it you have any PP up until JJ as well as KK. If we raise now, he will most likely fold. If we call, he will c/f the turn quite a bit and always fold to a turn raise if he does bluff again. So many times you are not getting any more money out of him irrespective to the line you take.
2. He has an ace. Most players have no concept of wa/wb and love to donk flops like this with an ace. Some are so predictable, it actually saves you bets in the long haul. So if he has an Ace and we raise, he will almost never fold to a raise and will actually call you down WAY too often. If we call and raise the turn, he actually may catch on that he is beat because that line is SUPER strong and you are only doing it w/ a Q or AA typically.
3. He actually has a Q and is playing it fast (hey, it happens). This is our best case scenario. If we raise, he will likely 3bet and then we can wait till the turn to pop him again. There is absolutely no way he folds a Q here ever, even if turn is another Ace as people just do not fold full houses (zeebo 101). In this case it would be awesome if the turn was like a 9-J as this really falls into his Qx defending range I would guess.

So after all that... now what. Raising here and fast playing is your best bet and is actually the least transparent that you have a monster.

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Thorough post, thanks for the thoughts.