$10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge

Fiasco · #1 11-27-2007, 07:27 PM

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what is it called when you take something to an extreme example? I forget the name.

No if you are running at -20% roi for 2k tourneys things can be inferred, that you'd be a losing player.

Your filtered results comes up with 416.. not 2k though. With a 33% roi we can infer you are probably a winning player although with much less confidence than someone that has lost for 2k sngs.

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son of a [censored] bitch how and where are you filtering this?

prodonkey · #2 11-27-2007, 07:27 PM

sharkscope.. advanced search, you have to have a subscription.

jmill2511 · #3 11-27-2007, 07:30 PM

Wow, you really really don't get it at all. It's almost like you're making an effort to misunderstand the point I was trying to make as much as possible.

In any case, not sure why you wont bet on being able to maintain a 25% ROI since you're running at 33% and you clearly know what you're doing. Seems like you're getting way the best of it, if anything I should be getting odds.

Fiasco · #4 11-27-2007, 07:34 PM

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Wow, you really really don't get it at all. It's almost like you're making an effort to misunderstand the point I was trying to make as much as possible.

In any case, not sure why you wont bet on being able to maintain a 25% ROI since you're running at 33% and you clearly know what you're doing. Seems like you're getting way the best of it, if anything I should be getting odds.

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LOL, poty.

As you may have seen ive proposed a prop in which I maintain over 20% for 1000 using the SNGs ive already played.

prodonkey · #5 11-27-2007, 07:38 PM

someone taking that bet would be betting you can't maintain an 11% roi for 584 sngs.

eurythmech · #6 11-27-2007, 07:38 PM

Why wouldn't you accept a start from scratch bet, if you feel your expected ROI is over 20%?

jmill2511 · #7 11-27-2007, 07:44 PM

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Why wouldn't you accept a start from scratch bet, if you feel your expected ROI is over 20%?

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Woah woah, quit being so rational.

henne822 · #8 11-27-2007, 07:50 PM

fiasco, you are -32% ROI in 16 9 man SNGS on stars. I do not think this is a good bet

Fiasco · #9 11-27-2007, 07:53 PM

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Why wouldn't you accept a start from scratch bet, if you feel your expected ROI is over 20%?

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1. Im not that confident. A lot of people seem to think that its unlikely, and I take that into account.

2. It commits me to playing a lot longer at the $16s. If I turn out to be good enough to win this bet it would probably be better for me to move up, unless I bet a ton of money (which im scared to do because of #1)

If I get good enough odds I may do it for 500 games from scrathc.

prodonkey · #10 11-27-2007, 07:58 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't you accept a start from scratch bet, if you feel your expected ROI is over 20%?

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1. Im not that confident. A lot of people seem to think that its unlikely, and I take that into account.

2. It commits me to playing a lot longer at the $16s. If I turn out to be good enough to win this bet it would probably be better for me to move up, unless I bet a ton of money (which im scared to do because of #1)

If I get good enough odds I may do it for 500 games from scrathc.

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I think you're missing the biggest point, that no one really gives a [censored] about what you can do in 500 games since it means almost nothing. There is still so much luck involved in 1k that nobody is going to lay you huge odds.