Top 12 Analysis

[thing85]

With a couple somewhat surprising eliminations this week, I thought I would write my take on the top 12 and what the eliminations mean for them.

Melinda Doolittle

She is a no-brainer. Obviously, she's the favorite right now. However, the elimination of Sabrina Sloan presents an increased edge for Melinda, IMO. While many said Sabrina had no shot, a few thought she could ultimately give the Melinda/Lakisha battle a run for its money. With this obstacle out of the way, I think she has a slightly increased edge after tonight.

Lakisha Jones

Much of what was said for Melinda applies to Lakisha. She is the obvious 2nd-favorite. The only possible threat in her "class" from below will be Stephanie. Even then, it really isn't close. Because of the remaining girls, the Lakisha/Melinda battle is imminent.

Chris Sligh

One of the favorites among the guys, Chris' edge increased tonight with the elimination of Sundance. Sundance was pretty bad to begin with, but there was always a potential seen by many that he could emerge as one of the front-runners for the guys. I see Chris in a league of his own as I believe Blake and Chris R. will battle for a shared fan base. His only possible threat (and it's small right now) outside of Blake and Chris is Phil, who is a pretty generic singer. See Phil's write up for more detail on why he could be a threat.

Blake Lewis

While Blake is a very likable contestant, he is at risk for an elimination once the dead money (see Sanjaya and Haley) dies off. His fan base has peaked, IMO, and he will need to fight to keep it. He and Chris R. are the only two contestants who share a "cool guy" image and offer somewhat unique performances. Unfortunately, not everyone likes that stuff, so they will be neck and neck for the rest of the way. A slip by Blake combined with an outstanding performance by Chris R. could send Blake packing earlier than expected.

Chris Richardson

Much of what I wrote about Blake applies to Chris. The factor that could put Chris past Blake is his versatility when it comes to vocals. Blake's vocals are OK, but he relies a lot on gimmicks to keep the fans interested. Chris showed last week that he can sing country reasonably well and I don't think the same could be said for Blake. Ultimately, I think Chris R. has the potential to out-sing Blake during the themed song nights.

Jordin Sparks

The only reason I don't place her in the class of Melinda/Lakisha/Stephanie is because she has that "wow, look how great she sings for a 17 (?) year old!" appeal. Furthermore, her style is different than the other three. While she is at the greatest risk compared to the others due to her youth (and presumed inexperience which could subject her to slipping all of a sudden), she has the potential to deliver that "WOW" impact. She may garner some younger votes that Melinda/Lakisha/Stephanie won't be able to.

Stephanie Edwards

Sabrina's early elimination should serve as a warning sign for Stephanie. Unless she can kick it up a notch in the next 2 weeks, she is probably gone. As I've mentioned, her fan base is largely taken by the top 2 divas so her only hope is to find a way to offer something different.

Phil Stacey

This guy has been very inconsistent and has the tendency to appear weird (in a bad way). The only way I can see that he will rise to a "threat" level is if he pulls off a string of great performances during the "weeding out" period (of Sanjaya and Haley). He potentially has 2 weeks to develop a fan base. His style is completely different that Blake/Chris R.'s, so if he miraculously pulls off a couple of good sons where he seems to build up a bit of a fan base, look for him to threaten Sligh.

Gina Glocksen

She's in a league of her own, and whether or not that's a good thing is hard to tell. When she is "herself" like last night, she is likable. When forced to sing certain types of songs, she's probably lost. Even so, she's better than Haley and could last longer due to her "only white girl left" status.

Brandon Rogers

Although I think he's a good singer, this guy should've been gone a couple of weeks ago. He's a mystery really, so it's hard to evaluate his potential. I do think he has potential, but his early performances (which were pretty poor) hurt his chances of developing a fan base. However, much like Phil, I think he has a couple weeks to step it up and contend.

Haley Scarnato

Dead money, as I've alluded to. She has the "attractive white girl" working for her now that Antonella is gone, but lacks any solid singing talent.

Sanjaya Malakar

It pains me to be writing his name in this thread, but he found a way to squeeze into the top 12. Again, dead money. He has virtually no chance of stepping up his singing, so it's all a matter of when his fan base either gives up or can't offer enough votes to keep him around.


With all of that said, here is the order of my projected eliminations (mostly in the order given above):

12. Haley Scarnato
11. Sanjaya Malakar
10. Gina Glocksen
9. Brandon Rogers
8. Stephanie Edwards
7. Phil Stacey
6. Blake Lewis
5. Jordin Sparks
4. Chris Richardson
3. Lakisha Jones
2. Chris Sligh
1. Melinda Doolittle

I do think Phil Stacey going out at #7 seems a bit too optimistic, but I see him differentiating himself enough to do so. I think Phil and Brandon at 7 & 9 are interchangeable.

Comments/discussion?

[TheBlueMonster]

I agree with most of the things you said. I'm personally rooting for the Lakisha/Melinda battle. It'll be like Aretha vs. Whitney. (but not as physically attractive)

[smbruin22]

is it still top 10 that go on the tour?? that's a big, big thing... can't remember that well, but was a little surprised covais didn't make it last year (he was horrible, but thought he had the support)... me thinks AI would have taken covais over lisa tucker on tour if they had the choice (suggesting votes are NOT tweaked)

[donut lover]

you are pretty well right on.....unforunatly i think sanjaya(ouch, it hurts me too.) may go deeper than you think, if the votes are for real, because he seems to have some sort of convaluted following....no idea why , unless his voters are mistaking him for one of the girls...

[Aloysius]

Thing - vn breakdown thanks for it.

[ QUOTE ]
12. Haley Scarnato
11. Sanjaya Malakar
10. Gina Glocksen
9. Brandon Rogers
8. Stephanie Edwards
7. Phil Stacey
6. Blake Lewis
5. Jordin Sparks
4. Chris Richardson
3. Lakisha Jones
2. Chris Sligh
1. Melinda Doolittle

[/ QUOTE ]

This feels pretty solid to me, although I would rate (unfortunately) Gina higher, and Phil (who is just godawful) lower, below Brandon.

I know Melinda is the favorite right now by any metric but... yeah you never know...

-Al

[GoRedBirds]

Wow... Great post!!! I agreed with just about everything you said in your breakdowns. It's so hard to predict where everyone will fall because one forgetable performance (like Sabrina's last week, I forgot what she sang after the show) can get a relatively talented singer booted before the likes of the dead $$. So, I can't say how good your top 12 is. I can't really see anything I could argue against happening though.

Seriously, Thing. VNH!!! Best post I've read this season.

[luckyjimm]

Is that legal?


[ QUOTE ]
Phil Stacey

His style is completely different that Blake/Chris R.'s, so if he miraculously pulls off a couple of good sons where he seems to build up a bit of a fan base, look for him to threaten Sligh.


[/ QUOTE ]

[disjunction]

I just saw Sligh went to Bob Jones U, and the Yahoo! website called him a devoted Christian. I have the sense that this year will turn into a referendum on a lot of political things, and Sligh will make it far.

[primetime32]

I think people continue to underestimate Haley. Yeah, she isnt as good of a singer as melinda, but she is the last good looking white girl. I would be more nervous to back a boderline black girl this week simply because they could be sharing alot of the same voters while there is a portion of the voting population that will now throw their weight behind haley.

Not to mention haley is capable of having a good night which would make her virtually a lock to stay.

[thing85]

primetime, agreed. If she does pull off a good night, she will be in a decent position.

With that said, she's not a good singer. Hell, Simon didn't even know her name (although I think some/all of that was an act on his part). The constant criticism by the judges is a sign that she will be sent packing soon. I think, at best, she goes out #10.