Call or fold my aces

iamastud · #1 07-19-2007, 11:45 PM

Older lady, tight passive, 2 off big blind raises.
A man, who has done a lot of bizare raising with garbage hands and is not really that good a player, reraises to $30.
I have aces, am 2 seats away from that man, and make it 4 bets. The above 2 call.

Flop comes K Q 7. Suits don;t matter.

Lady checks. Man bets. I raise. Lady reraises and the Man makes it 4 bets. So it is $20 to me to call.

Should I call, fold or raise?

there will be $210 in pot if the lady, who will act after me, calls. Should I put in the $20, hoping to catch a 3rd ace?

After thinking about it, I folded, fearing I was likely up against at least 1 set.

Sadly, on the turn, an ace did come. the woman had Ak and the man had QQ for a set of queens. I would have taken down a large one, ao I began to doubt my fold.

Any opinions on this one?

vmacosta · #2 07-20-2007, 01:09 AM

you made a bad fold because the pot was laying you 11:1 and you have the best hand there more often than that. I suggest just calling and seeing if the lady calls or caps. If she just calls you should make sure to see a showdown. If she caps you should probably still see a showdown but there may be a situation where you would fold on a bad turn card (like a K).

I suggest you read some of the other posts in this forum before posting again because this one has some flaws like:
-misuses of common poker terms
-results stated before letting people discuss

MitchL · #3 07-20-2007, 02:35 AM

Don't see how you can fold given this guy's description.

aK13 · #4 07-20-2007, 03:37 AM

Folding is pretty horrible -- you're ahead a lot. I think its closer to 5bet than folding. If you call, and then the turn is 2 bets to you, I'd consider a fold at that point.

And suits probably don't matter only after you know what hands they have.

bernie · #5 07-20-2007, 05:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I suggest you read some of the other posts in this forum before posting again because this one has some flaws like:
-misuses of common poker terms
-results stated before letting people discuss

[/ QUOTE ]

And hindsight thinking. The fact that the A hit the turn makes no difference at all.

A tight passive just check-3 bet the flop, I can see consideration for folding. She isn't likely raising preflop with KQ. She isn't likely check 3 betting with AK. Especially into a preflop capper.

[ QUOTE ]
If she caps you should probably still see a showdown

[/ QUOTE ]

What does a tight passive raise preflop and cap a flop with on this board? Hint: Usually not AK.

b

bernie · #6 07-20-2007, 05:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Folding is pretty horrible --

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, if you completely ignore that a passive person is check 3-betting into alot of preflop aggression. You're not ahead alot when that happens.

b

bernie · #7 07-20-2007, 05:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would have taken down a large one, ao I began to doubt my fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you really want to look at it in hindsight, figure you had 1 out. Now look at how much you'd have made hitting it. Profitable given the odds to call? No.

b

GreywolfNYC · #8 07-20-2007, 09:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have taken down a large one, ao I began to doubt my fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you really want to look at it in hindsight, figure you had 1 out. Now look at how much you'd have made hitting it. Profitable given the odds to call? No.

b

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. Bernie's analysis is spot-on imo.

iamastud · #9 07-20-2007, 11:14 AM

If after the flop, in a similair type situaiton to this one,i am getting 11 or 12-1 odds on my call, is it mathematically corrct to make the call, given that it about 12-1 to make a set by the river?

ssmallz · #10 07-20-2007, 12:02 PM

Since no one capped you pf, you can prolly rule out AA and likely KK. The only hands you should really be worred about are KQ and QQ. Would the guy go crazy w/JT here? Prolly not. AK? Migh be a possibility. If this were HU its an easy call down but the presence of the 3rd player in the hand makes me think that this is a pretty neutral EV situation b/c theres a greater likelyhood that one of your 2 opponents holds either KQ or QQ. If we look from purely combination standpoint its 9:3 that they hold KQ over QQ so you'll have 5 outs more often then you'll have 2. I think calling here is ok but I don't hate folding given the description of a tight passive lady check 3 betting the flop when the pf 4 better raises. That shows HUGE strenth.