Party 600 - value bet ~river, tptk against big fishy

[raze]

She is 42/6/0.7 over 500. I've only seen her open once before, and it was a standard 3x raise with KK, and she stacked some TAG trying to bluff her.

Anyways, simple question. Value bet river?



Party Poker, $3/$6 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $1,188.40
CO: $815
BTN: $1,068.87
SB: $981.54
Hero (BB): $600

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $12</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $39</font>, SB calls $27

Flop: ($78) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $60</font>, SB calls $60

Turn: ($198) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $138</font>, SB calls $138

River: ($474) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks

[FionnMac]

shove

[chio]

Yes:

(1) You have the strongest ace, she could easily call with worse
(2) Your line will look like a missed flush draw bluffing the river sometimes
(3) She is unlikely to have a 5, and if if she did it is unlikely she would have called the turn with a single card straight draw on a 3flush board
(4) With stronger made hands (trips, 2pair, low flush), she would have raised the flop or turn to protect her hand

[cbboy]

[ QUOTE ]
shove

[/ QUOTE ]

[tuckercat]

shove all day

[raze]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes:

(4) With stronger made hands (trips, 2pair, low flush), she would have raised the flop or turn to protect her hand

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds good in theory, but her aggression is 0.6 (lol). I didn't mention she played her KK hand completely passive as an overpair as well. She could have any Ace all the way down IMO.

I think the only part of her range that would pay off a value bet most of the time is A2 and A8+. I think she could have any number of made hands from trash 2-pair all the way to a flopped flush.

On the other hand, my guts say value shove.

[SEABEAST]

yeah i dont shove here, i bet like half pot max

[stackingboxes]

I hate hand reading donks. Cause you can be so off.

but this is what I noticed.

her pfr is 6%, this leads me to believe that when she raised and called a reraise, her A kicker would be pretty large, hence unlikely for a 2 pair. Hennnnce, u'r hand is prob good given it is the nut one pair hand. so Vbet for sure, I would bet as large as u think she's gonna call.

basically my post is to alliviate u'r fears of being beat, and value towning u'r self.

[spexel]

i bet like half pot and hope villain call W QxQs

[ogdundar]

def valuebetting, but not a shove. 2/3 pot or so is good.