What do line movements tell us?

[kyro]

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Agreed for sure. The business is gambling. Just as we are all gambling, so are the books, but as BMO said, just with a built in edge just in case, so they can actually afford to gamble more. Who are they going to gamble with, the sharps for the squares? I think a big misconception for beginners is that the books are looking for balanced action constantly.

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This is something I've been wrestling with recently. My roommate asked me a couple nights ago how the books set a line. I wasn't positive if they tried to have balanced action or took a risk to find the largest +EV. I figured it was a little bit of both.

[BowlMeOne]

The linesmakers make an educated guess at to what the true line should be. They adjust it to create somewhat balanced action while overcharging the "square" side slightly. Then it comes down to supply and demand. If the squares are piling in on the celtics -10.5 why not move it to -11? Not to balance the action, but you just obviously raise the price when demand is high.

[kyro]

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The linesmakers make an educated guess at to what the true line should be. They adjust it to create somewhat balanced action while overcharging the "square" side slightly. Then it comes down to supply and demand. If the squares are piling in on the celtics -10.5 why not move it to -11? Not to balance the action, but you just obviously raise the price when demand is high.

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Right. That makes sense.

[rjp]

FYI: The bettors set the line. Square, sharp, round, etc.

[iillllii]

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If Im sitting here seeing 70% on team A day of the game, I know square money is going to come in on them. So if I see a move to 7, I dont think much of it. If I see the same scenario and see it move to 6, that is most certainly sharp money.


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makes sense -

My only follow up question is where, in reality, are you getting this 70% figure - is it available publicly or are you paying for that data (e.g. SI)?

[rush66]

Paid for, however, wagerline is usually pretty close.

[dankhank]

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FYI: The bettors set the line. Square, sharp, round, etc.

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yea, i don't get why people are constantly worrying about whether books balance their action or not, whether they intend to persuade bettors to one side or not, etc. once you realize the sharpest book in the world, pinnacle, is nothing but a sophisticated computer program that reacts to the bets taken in, the whole process of reading line moves becomes much more simple, as it should be.

[iggymcfly]

Disclaimer: The below is not based on any inside information whatsoever. It's just my own concept of how lines are made.

The way I see it, if the book really wants balanced action and "Team A" is the side the squares like, then there's no way they're going to want to have balanced action on Friday or Saturday. They're going to try to set their line so something like 200K comes in on Team A going into Sunday and 400K comes in on Team B. Then, when the squares hammer Team A in the morning, all it does is even out the books and they don't have to move the line. That's what rush was getting at. They know where the square money's coming from ahead of time so they factor that into how they make the line. If they move the line, it's because they didn't estimate how many squares would be betting properly.

If say -13 is the true line (let's use a basketball game for an example so we don't have to worry about key numbers) and -17 splits the square action evenly, then what line splits the action varies from book to book. Maybe on Pinnacle, -14 splits their action evenly, so they deal -13.5 to get a slightly bigger edge from the squares. On Bodog with smaller limits, -15 splits the action so they deal -14. Meanwhile with the local down the street who only takes action from 10 different people, none of whom know anything about sports betting, he deals anywhere from -15 (the optimal number in terms of edge) to -17 (the safest) depending on how high his risk tolerance is.

[Webster]

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Balt +2.5
KC +14.5
Miami +10.5??
NY Jets +9

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No complaints so far

[scorer]

line movements are cause obviously by one side getting heavier action thus the books wanna get money on the other side to even it out. When the wise guys hit a game that line will move at most/all books within the same time frame. My friend knew one sharp better who used a computer to see if there was a line out of whack. If you found a line where instead of having a 50/50 chance to win vs the spread it was 60 or more they would pound that line. By hitting 60 percent of your plays vs the number instead of the 52.3 to break even vs the vig you get alot of profit. Wise guys are mostly college specialists and they love college fottabll totals and college basketball games.