What do line movements tell us?

[kyro]

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Houston pk is close. I have to have a 3 point difference in "my" line and the books line - otherwise it's a 50/50 bet.

Better then -1 though LOL! Thats why - people HATE to play those sides so the books have to adjust the REAL line so they get action.

In case you are wondering games I really like are
Balt +2.5
I sort of like KC but . . . . .
Miami +10.5??
NY Jets +9

Freaking scary games ay what? LOL

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I have Balt +3, KC +14.5, and Miami +10 (will put down another .5u if I can get it at +10.5. I'm staying away from the Jets game, though if I had to pick, it'd be the Jets. If it moves to +10, I might get something down on there, but that's unlikely.

[rush66]

Kyro,

Jazzy answered the question you asked.

Jazzy,

Its seems like you are more knowledgeable about lines than most. Webster makes a good point about the line movements being small. Houston has actually moved a good amount from the open, it opened with NO as a favorite.

One thing however I learned from YTF is that most of the square money in the NFL comes in on Sunday morning so if you see big moves right before the games, its not them.

[kyro]

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For example, this week I bet Bodog has Pitt and Green Bay -10

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Good guess.

[iillllii]

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One thing however I learned from YTF is that most of the square money in the NFL comes in on Sunday morning so if you see big moves right before the games, its not them.

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Could you clarify this? If square money typically comes in Sunday morning, wouldn't that mean that moves right before kick off are caused by squares?

Or is your implication that late square money is commonplace and doesn't usually result in a line movement, so that any actual line movement must be caused by a sharp money?

[rush66]

Yes, its my implication that late square money is commonplace and doesn't result in line movement. I see you have been here a while but haven't posted much. If for some reason you dont know who YouTalkFunny is, go to the FAQ and read his well post. If you already know who he is then nevermind.

[BowlMeOne]

Lines move for many reasons. When they move and why they move is the question you need to answer. Early in the week it is generally sharp action. Professionals taking advantage of the "openers". During the week what you get is all the wannabe action coming in. This is from the guys that think they are sharp but basically just follow what the sharp guys have already done at worse prices. "Square" action for the most part comes in on gameday. You also will have line jumps due to injuries/lineups. The other factor that will cause lines to move alot is weather. Late line moves are generally due to changes in lineups, weather, or syndicates/middlers/scalpers buying back their position.

bmo

[iillllii]

I'm definitely familiar with him, his well post was more enlightening than a lot of published material.

I read most of what gets posted here although I don't usually post, just because I don't have much to add....but I've been thinking about line movements a lot recently myself and late movements in particular, so maybe you can enlighten me further here, as your contention is counterintuitive at least in the context of my own understanding of sports books...

I know that books will sometimes purposely take uneven action when they know they are on the +EV side of the equation, but I've always just assumed this was the minority of betting events - I'd guess maybe 1 out of 10 betting events, at most, would they purposely take a reasonable volume of lopsided action. So it seems odd that it would be standard for them to hold lines constant just prior to kick off, with that late square money rushing in. Here are some hypothetical examples to illustrate my confusion:



NFL game: Team A -6.5 vs. Team B

Book has ~$300K of bets on A and ~$300K of bets on B. Then, 3 hours prior to kick off, square money starts rushing in on A, bringing the book's balance to $450K A and $300K B. The book just went from balanced to unbalanced, risk free to risky, on a betting event that isn't clearly +EV on either side. Wouldn't they add a half point to try to balance their position here? Or is it your contention that in such a scenario they really just say 'eh, screw it, this is square money, it's +EV in general to fade squares.'

Another possibility is that my assumed allocations are off? Maybe instead of

$300K A / $300K B --> late square $--> $450KA / $300K B,

reality is closer to

$2.5M A / $2.5M B --> late squre $ --> $2.55M A / $2.5M B

?

In this case, the extra $50K square money isn't large enough to justify a line move, especially if making the spread 7 instead of 6.5 will encourage $400K sharp money?

[rush66]

I understand what you are getting at in your scenario. I'm certainly not as qualified to answer that question as YTF but ill give it a shot. Id say it depends on the book. Lets say for example Im an extremely sharp off the street bookie, I mean I'm the nuts as far as bookies go. Now, the 300k/300k scenario could be realistic.

Now lets say all week ive gotten balanced action all week from both squares and sharps. Now, since Im the nuts I know the squares are gonna come in and bet on the favorite this morning. So I'm ready. If 150k worth of action came in I would most likely move it to 7 or even 7.5. Now lets say at the same time that 150k of action comes in but 3 guys I respect come in, lets say YTF, Thremp, and Perf come in (Just naming 3 off the top of my head). They each bet 10g's on side B. So now I have 450k/330k. What do I do? To the naked eye am I at risk, of course I am. But I dont feel like I am because of what just happened. It would again depend. If the same three came in monday morning when the lined opened at 6.5 and hit me up for 5k a piece I would drop the line to 6. If that were not the case I would keep my line most likely. In my opinion, its not the line movements by themselves that are the important factor, its knowing the percentages of people on each side.

If Im sitting here seeing 70% on team A day of the game, I know square money is going to come in on them. So if I see a move to 7, I dont think much of it. If I see the same scenario and see it move to 6, that is most certainly sharp money.

I was incorrect in making a blanket statement that only sharps move the lines late. Obviously that is not ALWAYS the case.

In the reality scenario. I dont think that the 500k of square money would move that line an inch, especially if its going to get hit by sharp money as you stated. This is the reason that the books test the waters throughout the week. They move their lines, especially on games they think they may have an +EV play on, to see what happens. That way when the morning of comes, they have a fairly good idea of how much square action they can take before they move the line.


For the record, I am the least eloquent person I know. So sometimes the things I say come across incorrectly or really dont make sense, so keep that in mind.

[BowlMeOne]

Don't forget the vig. The book is essentially getting +110 on all the action. They don't need to balance to profit. And books will take a position and gamble. Books will also lay action off if they feel necessary into other books. Pinny is famous for this as they will at times dangle a seemingly decent line to attract scalpers, while they are just laying it off at an even better line into Asia.

[rush66]

Agreed for sure. The business is gambling. Just as we are all gambling, so are the books, but as BMO said, just with a built in edge just in case, so they can actually afford to gamble more. Who are they going to gamble with, the sharps for the squares? I think a big misconception for beginners is that the books are looking for balanced action constantly.