Should I be folding this?

RonWR · #1 11-15-2007, 06:08 PM

about 30 left in 100+9 my stack is avarege , should I be folding this or is this the type of spot I should gamble at?

I decided 15 outs is enough and winning this poit basically lets me coast to FT instead of play SS poker the rest of the way if I dont catch a hand

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t32330)
UTG (t19960)
UTG+1 (t18936)
MP1 (t161009)
MP2 (t55647)
MP3 (t15800)
CO (t15120)
Button (t33457)
Hero (t30303)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls t1600, 2 folds, MP2 calls t1600, 3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t6800) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets t4800, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 raises to t24000, Hero raises to t28553, MP2 calls t4553.

Turn: (t63906) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t63906) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t63906

Hero has 2h 6h (one pair, nines).
MP2 has 7d 7s (full house, sevens full of nines).
Outcome: MP2 wins t63906.

EroTheMad · #2 11-15-2007, 06:28 PM

First of all i didn't like the call pre-flop with 11M. On flop his raise really wrecked your 3bet FE(when i looked at your stack i first thougt good 3bet with giving bad odds but you need to bet like 3k to do that and it's too small). Your 15 outs make you favorite only against a pair though and his raise says he has at least two pair or drawing hand like you(But i saw a hand here,a guy limped with AA after two limpers). I don't know 100+9 players well and i don't know if he'd do that raise with a straight draw. Your outs look pretty but it's hard to admit you're behind on a flop like this. And another problem about this flop is you had the 6, low-end of the OESD and T may not be an out like you thought. It's hard to fold here(look at this flop!) but after thinking about hand it looks like it could be a fold here.

And this has to be posted to HSMTT but if you want to listen SSMTT player advice, here it is.

yNnOs · #3 11-15-2007, 06:33 PM

Yea, thought that was for HS too. I'm usually folding pre and postflop; so many better spots to pick.

WJL · #4 11-15-2007, 07:01 PM

Fold PF.

As played, shove flop and make villain fold his set to your straight. J10 is very believable here. I think 15 outs is very optimistic given the drawy board and the fact that you hold the ignorant end of this particular straight draw and a very low flush draw. Villain could be shoving this after your bet with a number of holdings, many of which overlap with yours to bad effect.

In the end, however, this is tough to play OOP, so we get back to Fold PF. 62s is a crappy hand, and I doubt I would even play it if I were on the button with M=3 . . . but if it folded around to me, at least I'd have some FE. Too early to get desperate with an average stack.

yNnOs · #5 11-15-2007, 07:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
As played, shove flop and make villain fold his set to your straight. J10 is very believable here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how. Shoving 28,500 into a 6,800 pot doesn't look like the nuts and I'm not folding middle set to this EVER.

tomek322 · #6 11-15-2007, 07:14 PM

I would fold pre, but if i completed no doubt get it in on the flop. He can show me his set. I would take my OESFD.

WJL · #7 11-15-2007, 07:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As played, shove flop and make villain fold his set to your straight. J10 is very believable here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how. Shoving 28,500 into a 6,800 pot doesn't look like the nuts and I'm not folding middle set to this EVER.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, there ain't much FE here, but I think shoving is a lot better than calling a shove in this situation.

jchauvin · #8 11-15-2007, 07:46 PM

fold preflop, check/shove flop

RonWR · #9 11-15-2007, 08:23 PM

I bet out because of the drawish board, I was hoping this will represent a strong made hand in opposed to check raise which will more often be a draw ,

If I only play two pair and up or monster draws is it wrong to complete with 6-2 after two limpers from the SB? im not so certain about this

JesseB_11 · #10 11-15-2007, 09:28 PM

Fold preflop. With these stacks, i like a crai on flop to give you fold equity. Your getting your money in anyway on this flop tho