NL 10 AA: Gotta make a flop read

[AHMWM]

I guess I either have to believe the villain and fold, or make a big raise. He's running 65/30 over 25 hands. My read tells me PP mid to mid-high PP.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $9.55
BB: $17.05
UTG: $10.30
MP: $9.35
Hero (CO): $10
BTN: $11.65

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.40</font>, BTN calls $0.40, SB folds, BB calls $0.30

Flop: ($1.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $1.25</font>

[thoman8r]

What's the decision? Raise that [censored] up.

[AHMWM]

with a player running 65/30 are there any hands with a 9 in it I should consider in his range? Maybe a flush draw? if he did have the 9 wouldn't he just check it?

[thoman8r]

Yes 9's and flush draws are a part of his range and so are straight draws, pocket pairs, and air.

I raise and call a shove unless he's a real nit post-flop.

[bsball8806]

Raise this every day. He could have a 9 yes, but also a 7, 88, 66, 10's, 8 10, clubs, nothing....the list goes on. Sorry he had 10 9 and stacked you

[AHMWM]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise this every day. He could have a 9 yes, but also a 7, 88, 66, 10's, 8 10, clubs, nothing....the list goes on. Sorry he had 10 9 and stacked you

[/ QUOTE ]

lol nope....89o but basically the same thing...

[jhly]

Raise more preflop

[PepsPersson]

Preflop is good.

Let's put his range to, JJ-66,A9s,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s,95s+,86s+,76s,A9o,K9o,Q9o,J 9o,T9o,95o+,86o+,76o (note that I put alot of possible draws in there since his range is probably just that huge. Also, I think he is bluffing 5-10% which I take into account in my calculations done). That equals 106 combinations. I will go from my point of view and just say that I have a hard time seeing him folding any of these, well okay, maybe 66 and 87o 87s but nothing else. So we will get called 89% of the times and win those 39,90%. The amount of times he folds, and the times we get called, all adds up to about breakeven in EV$ mostly due to small pot and we have 100bb behind. I like to fire it up and folding if he comes over the top again.

[bsball8806]

[ QUOTE ]

The amount of times he folds, and the times we get called, all adds up to about breakeven in EV$ mostly due to small pot and we have 100bb behind. I like to fire it up and folding if he comes over the top again.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is bad. If we raise the pot, to 5 dollars and he shoves over top, that's leaving us with 3:1 odds to call. I think he does this often enough with lower PP's, and straight/flush draws.

Raise and call a shove is good.

[PepsPersson]

If he shoves over us, I think we can narrow down his range quite much to only nines and strong draws leaving our equity and win % in the low low low %. I dont raise to 5, I raise to like 3.25.