heads up SNG - question i have been thinking about

[Somekid]

I think in the case of B, we want to call because we're ahead of his range and by taking the +EV play now, we increase our hourly compared to folding and waiting for later to outplay him.

[[Phill]]

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Im also thinking that range is pretty liberal, with stuff like A2-A5 being unlikely holdings for example

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You clearly don't play enough bad players. I would want to pull AJ out of the range, because many bad players just outright push with AJ preflop (and maybe AT as well), or at least reraise. I'd also want to include a few random kings and weaker gutshots just for extra donk factor. (Yes, I have seen people do this with second pair as high as $100s, and it's a fairly regular occurence even at the $50s)

I'm also a little confused about how removing hands we're crushing (smaller aces) could possibly *increase* our equity from 42.59% to 62.79%, and I just ran this same range through pokerstove (copy-pasted your range directly in), with a board of AcKcTs, and our hand as Ad9d, and show us with 53% equity, so I don't know how you got 42.59%. Even if I make the board all clubs, meaning a lot of those hands already have a made flush, I show our equity as 47.693%.

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Feel free to provide a realistic hand range that we are a favourite against.

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Color me confused, because as far as I can tell, we're a favorite against YOUR range, which I actually think is slightly too tight, rather than "pretty liberal". But one of the two of us screwed up in pokerstove, and I've triple and quadruple checked mine, so you might want to double-check yours. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I copy and pasted the range above, used a Ac Kc Jd, i gave Hero As9S and our equity comes out as 42.59$.

The difference is in the board you used - in OP he said AKJ so thats what i used, and you have AKT. I ran it using a Ac Kc Td board and it shows us as fave as you mentioned.

Also, the point about A2-A5 is i didnt think a villain would play them like this (not a good one) and if they didnt the equity changes because we will split with A2-A5 enough to increase our equity even though we are "dominating" them. It makes villains equity rise to 63.37% btw.

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Anyway, its entirely true im giving villains too much credit here, but thats how i analised it. Id like to see one of you guys who are pro calling give a range of a villain so i can see what you guys are seeing it as. Maybe im over crediting villains and maybe ive identified a leak, but if we are ahead here then im sure we will find a spot where we are further ahead later down the line (obviously im not pro folding +EV spots, im just not sold on it being +EV long term). A mistake calling here is a big mistake. A fold here is a small mistake.

[TNixon]

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B.) Fold - if he sucks that bad why call when you could be dominated or 50/50..? outplay the moron later

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Because I'd rather have a 55 or 56% chance of winning in 10 seconds than a 60-65% chance of winning in 15 minutes.

That's supersimple $EV/hour math.

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[TNixon]

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The difference is in the board you used - in OP he said AKJ so thats what i used, and you have AKT. I ran it using a Ac Kc Td board and it shows us as fave as you mentioned.

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LOL

durr.

That's what triple-checking gets you. Not seeing the obvious.

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[TNixon]

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i didnt think a villain would play them like this (not a good one)

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But that's why we fold to the good opponent.

This one is not "a good one".

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A fold here is a small mistake.

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A fold here, if we are actually ahead, is a much bigger mistake than you're giving credit for.

You're looking at a very small number of chips, and calling it a small mistake.

I'm looking at the difference between $3000/hour and $200/hour, and calling it a really big one.

Oh yeah, and I'm definitely *NOT* a pro, but I would be interested in hearing from them as well.

[[Phill]]

Yeah, cant fault that if its a +EV all in long term its going to increase the hourly earn, whereas if its +EV and you fold (expecting to find more +EV spots later) then it (possibly) increases your earn per tourney.

[TNixon]

Another thing to think about: even really bad players realize they have to try to get value out of their big hands, and that you have to have *something* to be able to call. This board might be enough for a scared player to push with KJ, but I honestly would expect to see a minraise or even a flat call more often than not from either KJ or QT. An all-in here practically screams weakness.

Of course, donks are donks, and they're extremely random and hard to read, which is part of what makes them donks. Seeing QT here doesn't really surprise me any more than 3c2c, or 74o.

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[tmcdmck]

depends quite how very poor the guy is :P but if he is -35%roi or worse (and this is what i would consider to be very poor in caps), then it is a call, he has something like 2nd pair or worse; if they are shoving better in this spot their roi would not be so low! against a very good opponent, I would be very surprised to see this play with no metagame going on, but would most likely fold, as i fail to see how they could do well if they are shoving worse than A9 at all often here.

[geo8o2]

i think the buy-in matters.

[ukdentisto32]

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i think the buy-in matters.

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ok, 33 buyin vs. 220 buyin vs. 2200 buyin? that makes a difference?