heads up SNG - question i have been thinking about

[ukdentisto32]

most of us probably use sharkscope, if not all of us. so here is the question. the very first hand of a heads up sng, and u have ZERO play-based reads on the guy, u raise with A9s in position, the flop is AKJ with a flush draw (you dont have the flush draw), you bet the 3/4 pot and:

A) the guy with the VERY GOOD sharkscope stats shoves, u fold? call?

B) the guy with the VERY POOR sharkscope stats shoves, u call? fold?

also, would your decision change if you had AT? i know the guy with very good stats prob wouldnt shove this, BUT, just assume he does...

[ChicagoRy]

I've played a fair amount of top winners in 110s that shove these flops with plenty of hands we're ahead of here. Also obviously hands we're behind, so I don't have much of a problem assuming this.

As for your question, let me get back to you.

[TNixon]

A) I call, cause he's probably better than me, and I feel runner-runner 9s coming.

B) I call, because he's got JT/KT/KQ/JQ or A3-A5 ("I have a pair! And I just *KNOW* he's betting a draw, so I'm not going to let him get there") almost all the time, and sometimes even just random Kx or Q/Tx. Also, he's almost certainly going to at least reraise preflop, if not just push, with at least two-thirds of the hands that have us beat. If he shows me QT, or a monster pair+flush+straight draw, then I feel like a donk for a few minutes, and get over it, knowing I'm going to have him drawing slim a big percentage of the time.

A is actually a damn tough decision, because most good players would not shove this flop first hand no matter what they had. If player A actually does push this flop, I think his most likely holding is going to be a pair and a flush draw, maybe even with a gutshot to go with it. Except for KJ, two pair is very unlikely, sets are practically impossible, and QT is very rarely going to shove.

I would probably be most likely to fold A, but I'm definitely calling B.

And having AT doesn't change my decision, except by making me a little more likely to call A.


***edit***

Btw, the reason I lean towards folding A, even though I think his most likely holding is one that I have correct odds to call against (not that odds matter a ton when your tournament life is on the line), is that KJ and QT are very much in his range as well. KJ is more likely to push than QT, but even with the straight, he could be overbetting to induce a call from a hand just like mine, while pricing out would-be counterfeiters and flushers. This is actually a pretty scary board for a straight. There are quite a few cards that could come that would make you just want to puke. Because although *he* isn't likely to have two pair or a set, I could very easily have either. I still don't think QT is going to shove normally (because shoving only gets called by the hands that have 4-12 outs to beat or split with you, and gets rid of everybody else), but if he thinks I caught fairly strong on this board, he might.

His range also includes some number of bluffs, but without any sort of history with the player, it's impossible to even guess at how often he might be bluffing here.

[TNixon]

Btw, if any of my thinking in the above post is severely off, PLEASE don't hesitate to call me out as the donk I really am, and set me straight. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[daveT]

The bad player would be insta-call.

The good player would see your shark-stats and be able to make assumptions about your play. He would realize (???) that you would not call lightly here.

This is a mind * btw.

[jay_shark]

I'm more inclined to fold versus the good player and call versus the bad player .

[[Phill]]

Id be willing to fold A9 on that flop against both kind of players (for the record i dont use Sharkscope, but will prolly invest in it sometime soon).

The point is, when he is behind to us we will find a miles better spot in the near future and the pot isnt remotely close to big at the point he shoved.

I decided to stove it. I think the range for villain is:
AJs-A2s,KJs,QcJc,QTs,Qc9c,Qc8c,Qc7c,JcTc,Jc9c,Jc8c,AJo-A2o,KJo,QTo

Which puts our equity as 42.59%. Im also thinking that range is pretty liberal, with stuff like A2-A5 being unlikely holdings for example (removing them shifts our equity to 62.79% fwiw).

Feel free to provide a realistic hand range that we are a favourite against. I dont think there are any, but then i dont call this shove so i wouldnt find out as often as you guys.

[daveT]

First hand? I have seen so many bizarre holdings from shoves that I cannot think of a proper range. But this is also stake dependent.

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
Im also thinking that range is pretty liberal, with stuff like A2-A5 being unlikely holdings for example

[/ QUOTE ]
You clearly don't play enough bad players. I would want to pull AJ out of the range, because many bad players just outright push with AJ preflop (and maybe AT as well), or at least reraise. I'd also want to include a few random kings and weaker gutshots just for extra donk factor. (Yes, I have seen people do this with second pair as high as $100s, and it's a fairly regular occurence even at the $50s)

I'm also a little confused about how removing hands we're crushing (smaller aces) could possibly *increase* our equity from 42.59% to 62.79%, and I just ran this same range through pokerstove (copy-pasted your range directly in), with a board of AcKcTs, and our hand as Ad9d, and show us with 53% equity, so I don't know how you got 42.59%. Even if I make the board all clubs, meaning a lot of those hands already have a made flush, I show our equity as 47.693%.

[ QUOTE ]
Feel free to provide a realistic hand range that we are a favourite against.

[/ QUOTE ]
Color me confused, because as far as I can tell, we're a favorite against YOUR range, which I actually think is slightly too tight, rather than "pretty liberal". But one of the two of us screwed up in pokerstove, and I've triple and quadruple checked mine, so you might want to double-check yours. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[PLO8FaceKilla]

I play PLO8 but....

A.) Fold - because calling is stupid
B.) Fold - if he sucks that bad why call when you could be dominated or 50/50..? outplay the moron later