$200R AJ vs Colson

[gobboboy]

Not really because it'd be sacrificing EV that he can be taking by just calling. Wait for trash that you can't play +EV in any other way other than reraising.

[djk123]

regarding 3 betting preflop:

i felt AJ was on the borderline. AQ i was def 3 betting/calling for value and AT i was def calling. i thought colson was on the tighter side (is this accurate?) so elected to call.

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
Not really because it'd be sacrificing EV that he can be taking by just calling. Wait for trash that you can't play +EV in any other way other than reraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think dan is asking if 3betting close to atc is +EV here. you guys are on the same page.

[KingDan]

I meant repopping with total air.

If no, why not?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran the numbers, your equity when called is about 25% and he's calling about 1/5 times. That makes it really damn close for shoving preflop but I see no reason to do it when calling is clearly +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
I assume you are talking about reraising allin preflop, which is similar to, but easier to calculate than, 3-bet/calling. AJo is 25% against JJ+,AK. Do you really think his range is that tight? Also, that is 3% of his hands, and I think he raises more than 15% of his hands.

[djk123]

if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
if i shoved, i'd say colson is calling 88+,AQ+ and maybe 77 and AJs

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeh, and you are 31% against 88+,AQ+. That is 5.6% of his hands. If he is raising 20% of his hands from CO, then he calls 20% of the time.

You gain 4900 if he folds. If he calls, there is 75300 in the pot. Your expected loss in 12500 compared to folding. So your overall expected win is 1400 by pushing.

If you 3-bet/call, Colson may push some weaker hands thinking he has FE and he may flat call. I think 3-bet/calling is about equal to overbet pushing with AJo. If you had a big hand or were making a playing, a standard 3-bet is better than a push.

Now people are saying flat calling is more cEV+ than reraising, but they say fold this flop. If you check/fold any flop without an ace or jack or KQT, I don't think flat calling is very EV+. Plus sometimes you are dominated with top pair. Given villain is a strong player, it seems like a reraise is the better play.

It seems to me that if you are going to flat call, this is a pretty good flop to checkraise or lead out/fold with, representing a pp or middle cards.

[g-p]

hes betting all the scary turn cards after you c/c flop because he probably knows you arent c/cing any combo draws

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
hes betting all the scary turn cards after you c/c flop because he probably knows you arent c/cing any combo draws

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeh, as played I kind of like a checkraise allin on the turn. Good chance you have 5-13 outs if you are not ahead. I think if he has an overpair here he often checks behind.

[Ship Ship McGipp]

this thread is funny, just thought i'd say hi.

hi!

!