Thursday: A&M at Miami

[Caldarooni]

I will be on the over closer to game time.

[facialabuse]

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Looking into ML as well, anyone have an idea when Bodog will post a ML?

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game starts at 7:45pm EST?

probably around 7:30

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im sorry for the hijack but seriously this is a major gripe I have, WTF BODOG, I know they have spies on here, are you really that scarred of giving up your rape-equity to us when you already have so much from f'ed lines to begin with

WTF datamines discriminate against the black QBs

[JolsonFan]

Sorry -2

[MyTurn2Raise]

Not betting this one on the spread

My preseason index has it Miami -1.5
My index based on the combined ratings at Massey compare has it A&M +4...(combined ratings based on 20 some odd published computer indexes)
My index based on the 'experts' I trust most (CFN #1-#119 poll) has it A&M -0.5.

As pointed out, A&M might be inflated due to an easier schedule.
Also, Thursday night prime home teams have shown a larger than expected home field advantage over the past 4 to 5 years.

SO, My indexes show no edge.
I see nothing between the two teams to suggest bucking that.

However, I do see a play on the over
A&M/Miami Fl o45 bet 1.05u to win 1u

Thursday nights have shown fireworks.
I love A&M's ability to score on Miami. I overrated Marshall's offense early, so was extra impressed by the Miami D. I was wrong. OK, A&M doesn't have the balance of Oklahoma, but they do provide a very dynamic offense that is tough to stop. If Miami stacks the line, A&M does provide enough passing. Plus, a stacked line is less effective stopping a spread-option rushing attack that gets defenders in space than a traditional rushing attack.

On the other side of the ball, The Aggies have struggled on D and the Hurricanes have struggled on O. A&M is giving up 383 ypg (slightly inflated due to a multi-OT game) v pretty weak competition. Montana St...LOL. Fresno St is done from what it was. UL-Monroe has shown they can rush (s Car and A&M), but that is still kind of shady. Miami's QB situation appears to be clear. Hopefully, it will be enough.

My model predicts 48 points in this one. I see no reason to override it.

[Hurricane31]

WOW. I never would have thought this many people would have gone with my boys on this game.
The main reason that I believe that UM has a decent chance to cover in this game is the fact that Texas A&M's defense has been shown to have some holes in it against poor teams. They gave up over 400 yards against Montana State in their opener, and had to go into a couple OTs to beat Fresno State @ home. With that said Kyle Wright will have to learn how to step up in the pocket, take a hit, and complete some passes, as I believe A&M will load the box to play against our only offensive strengths in James and Cooper (avg 172yrds/gm against Marshall, OU, and FIU--only 54 yards combined against OU!)

Another fact/opinion (no stats)that gives the edge to A&M is the fact that the have a very mobile QB in McGee. If anyone has followed Miami in the past couple years, they know that most of the O's that gave us a lot of trouble used their QB to scramble at least twice a scoring drive..besides OU, they did anything they wanted to against us on offense.
Anyway, enough rambling, I'm not a handicapper..just couldnt stop typing. (PS I did put a small bet on the Canes, but only as a fan--I believe A&M has enough firepower to cover at the Orange Bowl)
GO CANES

[sanmarcosrun1]

You don't factor in the weather at all in this game myturn for the total?

[Caldarooni]

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You don't factor in the weather at all in this game myturn for the total?

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This is one of the more misused factors by the public.

[New001]

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I will be on the over closer to game time.

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Do you expect to be able to get better than 45?

[Austiger]

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Also, Thursday night prime home teams have shown a larger than expected home field advantage over the past 4 to 5 years.

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This was the tipping point for me. It's been that way this season, even with Maryland who I thought played pretty well even in their loss.

[Alzee]

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Not betting this one on the spread

My preseason index has it Miami -1.5
My index based on the combined ratings at <a href="massy ratings compare" target="_blank">Massey</a> compare has it A&M +4...(combined ratings based on 20 some odd published computer indexes)
My index based on the 'experts' I trust most (CFN #1-#119 poll) has it A&M -0.5.

As pointed out, A&M might be inflated due to an easier schedule.
Also, Thursday night prime home teams have shown a larger than expected home field advantage over the past 4 to 5 years.

SO, My indexes show no edge.
I see nothing between the two teams to suggest bucking that.

However, I do see a play on the over
A&M/Miami Fl o45 bet 1.05u to win 1u

Thursday nights have shown fireworks.
I love A&M's ability to score on Miami. I overrated Marshall's offense early, so was extra impressed by the Miami D. I was wrong. OK, A&M doesn't have the balance of Oklahoma, but they do provide a very dynamic offense that is tough to stop. If Miami stacks the line, A&M does provide enough passing. Plus, a stacked line is less effective stopping a spread-option rushing attack that gets defenders in space than a traditional rushing attack.

On the other side of the ball, The Aggies have struggled on D and the Hurricanes have struggled on O. A&M is giving up 383 ypg (slightly inflated due to a multi-OT game) v pretty weak competition. Montana St...LOL. Fresno St is done from what it was. UL-Monroe has shown they can rush (s Car and A&M), but that is still kind of shady. Miami's QB situation appears to be clear. Hopefully, it will be enough.

My model predicts 48 points in this one. I see no reason to override it.

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Hopefully weather will be horrible, keeping it under :-)