Flopping a set on a dry board

Hebel · #1 11-18-2007, 12:21 PM

I almost always lead into the preflop raiser in this spot. Its great for disguising the hand and if villain is going to pay you off its because his hand hits the flop. I bet out and hope he raises

Profish2285 · #2 11-18-2007, 12:23 PM

I dont like leading out here. The board is too dry for that, we are pretty much hoping he has AA or a strong king. I like c/c flop and lead turn for like 1/2 pot. I also do this with pairs sometimes so it adds some balance to my play as well. If the board was KQ3 or something like that then its a different story. I think donking here will get him to fold wayyy too often when you would have at least gotten a c-bet out of him.

Hebel · #3 11-18-2007, 12:24 PM

I think that the gains from when he does have a hand and raises are >>>>>>> than picking off a cbet once in a while

Profish2285 · #4 11-18-2007, 12:28 PM

What Im getting at is he will gain that very seldom. How big are AA, AK, and KQ in his range? Surely there are a good amount of other hands as well. Even if villain has QQ theres a chance you get him to fold it by doing this as opposed to at least getting one bet out of him. I think donk betting with sets is perfect on drawy boards or at least boards with 2 broadway. I think this board is great for a donk bet if youre bluffing, but not for hoping to b/3b on.

Hebel · #5 11-18-2007, 12:39 PM

I would rather win a $25 pot when i lead out and stack ak/aa/kq/k8/kj/k10 since villain is awful then win 2.5 when he has air. I think he has at least one of those hands more than 1 time in 10. add in bluff raises once in a while (I love raising donk bets) and i think its pretty clear leading out is the more profitable play.

matrix · #6 11-18-2007, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather win a $25 pot when i lead out and stack ak/aa/kq/k8/kj/k10 since villain is awful then win 2.5 when he has air.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why can't we do both?

AK AA KQ K8 KJ are all stacking off here pretty much no matter how we play this hand - we want to max our earn as well the 9/10 times he has a lot less than that.

ClutchCity · #7 11-18-2007, 02:42 PM

Since that is the dream flop for a set, I like c/c on the flop and lead out on the turn. I think betting out would be too fast for that board. What if he were to actually think about what you might have, put you on a king and then fold? That'd suck, but then again a guy with those stats probably isn't thinking about too much is he?

I think you stand to make more money leading on the turn than by C/R. Hopefully, he thinks you're bluffing and reraises big.

Also, I'm new to the board, so I'm not really sure what ya'll mean by "donk bet". Can someone explain that one to me please? I'm guessing just a pure bluff on the flop?

matrix · #8 11-18-2007, 12:40 PM

c/c flop.

c/r turn awl-een.

alternatvely - minidonk flop and aim to b/3b all in on teh flop. Most flops miss most hands tho and unless he has a King+GK+ you get little here apart from his CB whatever line you take.

This hand is a perfect example of why autopilot calling 4BB raises with pp's and 100bb stacks purely for set value is not that +EV - and also this is a good line to take when you whiff with your pp and want to steal a pot (obv if you have little on this flop apart from an underpair then fold turn to further resistance)

Hebel · #9 11-18-2007, 12:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
c/c flop.

c/r turn awl-een.

alternatvely - minidonk flop and aim to b/3b all in on teh flop. Most flops miss most hands tho and unless he has a King+GK+ you get little here apart from his CB whatever line you take.

This hand is a perfect example of why autopilot calling 4BB raises with pp's and 100bb stacks purely for set value is not that +EV - and also this is a good line to take when you whiff with your pp and want to steal a pot (obv if you have little on this flop apart from an underpair then fold turn to further resistance)

[/ QUOTE ]

this line is terrible imo. it just screams strength, its the only line that would get me to fold ak on that board. Youre basically broadcasting that you have a set

Profish2285 · #10 11-18-2007, 12:50 PM

Hebel youre honestly wayyy over thinking this. You think that line is getting villain to fold a king, because the average villain wont. The benefit of matrix's line is that it also allows villain to c-bet. It allows him to double barrel with air if he wants and it also allows him to think his JJ/TT/QQ are good for two bets.