Hand from Borgata WPT

[gs3737]

30K starting stacks and you already covered him by 16-18K at level 2?

[betgo]

Slow levels and he is ZeeJustin.

[FGators]

I think it definitely has something to do with this being level 2 and the fact that this guy would know not to go to the 5k chips especially if he's been tight and straightforward and the only hand he's played was the bluff on the old lady, which wasn't a big bluff, as reported.

Secondly ZeeJustin mentioned that he threw out chips totaling 500 so he clearly knows the differenation between the chips because of his preflop action. If the guy with the sports cap has around 30k chips he would have plenty of smaller denomination chips to toss out multiple 100 chips instead of going for a 5k chip. I would think your natural reaction would be to maintain the same chip approach as you did previously (preflop).

I think the guy with 1 post, grey_abbey, is the closest here and what he wrote was my initial reaction before I posted.

[gs3737]

[ QUOTE ]
Slow levels and he is ZeeJustin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me re-phrase--after reading his description of the BB, I would not have thought that he would be at 18K in chips at level two. He did not seem to be the type to lose 40% of his stack at 25/50. ZeeJustin is at 34-36K.

[MLG]

Here's my thinking. We put him on a very strong range preflop given the physical tells. That seems to me like TT+/AK. Now we get to the flop and it checks around. That doesnt seem unreasonable for basically his whole range. Given the player description he's quite likely to check hands that missed like TT-QQ, and it seems even the most straightforward player will consider slowplaying AA/KK/AK here. On the turn when you lead and he call/raises its pretty interesting. The fact that he doesnt seem upset really really really discounts a draw in my mind (although i find it hard pressed to include draws in my range to begin with). So that really leaves only AK/AA/KK and now TT. I have a hard time thinking that the player described would be peeling with JJ/QQ here, although I guess its possible. Against AA/KK/TT/AK you are pretty much 50/50 and it seems to me like he will value-bet his entire range on the river. So I think I'm calling here and check-calling the river unless an A/K rivers. I may consider some sort of river bluff if a q/j hits...although I imagine it would have to be a pretty much pot sized bet to get it to work.

[sirtimo]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is a typical Armenian guy in his 30's. .... overvalues the importance of reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
The BB is a white guy in his mid 30's .... He has been tight, solid, straightforward, and not tricky at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

So the Armenian out-thunk himself folding to the 'tricky angle shoot' by the ABC white guy because he overvalues his soul-staring reads.

I call and lead any non A or K river.


(then again I suck )

[Pudge714]

It was professor plum in the library with the rusty spoon (always my favorite Clue weapon since it is so useless.)
It really sucks that Aruba has such crappy internet or I would just ask Alan.
As for the hand itself given your description I don't think he is angling or you would have given us more info to reach that conclusion.
With stacks this deep and vs. unknowns limpers opening ranges are really tight especially vs. this type of villain probably something like TT+ AQ+ maybe even tighter. The check back flop raise turn is usually a really huge line, but given I don't think he is angling with AA or KK (I guess he could be genuine and wanted to slow play one more street) and that QJ is unlikely given preflop. I would call the flop and check reeavlaute a river. Definitely fold and ace or king river, definitely get it in on an 8 river. Probably check fold J/Q rivers just because I don't think this guy will be able to vbet any worse hands on that scary a river and it's a pretty complex bluff if he is making one.

It doesn't have much to do with stack sizes if he shoves the turn and loses. He is still 200bbs deep in a really deep structure and it isn't something he would be so cryptic about imo.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my thinking. We put him on a very strong range preflop given the physical tells. That seems to me like TT+/AK. Now we get to the flop and it checks around. That doesnt seem unreasonable for basically his whole range. Given the player description he's quite likely to check hands that missed like TT-QQ, and it seems even the most straightforward player will consider slowplaying AA/KK/AK here. On the turn when you lead and he call/raises its pretty interesting. The fact that he doesnt seem upset really really really discounts a draw in my mind (although i find it hard pressed to include draws in my range to begin with). So that really leaves only AK/AA/KK and now TT. I have a hard time thinking that the player described would be peeling with JJ/QQ here, although I guess its possible. Against AA/KK/TT/AK you are pretty much 50/50 and it seems to me like he will value-bet his entire range on the river. So I think I'm calling here and check-calling the river unless an A/K rivers. I may consider some sort of river bluff if a q/j hits...although I imagine it would have to be a pretty much pot sized bet to get it to work.

[/ QUOTE ]
People don't angle-shoot to build a pot with top two pair with deep money. They do with top set. I don't think AK is as likely as one of TT/KK/AK, just because you get AK almost as often as TT/KK/AK.

[Todd Terry]

Justin's post said "500 more chips", which I take to mean that BB threw out 5 100 chips. If that is correct, then we can't deduce that BB knows the difference between a 5000 and 500 chip, because he didn't use one. It wouldn't be unusual for him not to have 3 100's left, especially after throwing out 5 100's preflop.

My guess is that Justin thinks the key to the hand is that the Armenian, like Justin, said nothing when the 6K in chips were thrown out and the guy said call, and, like Justin, did not participate in any way in obtaining the ruling. This means that the Armenian, like Justin, had a monster hand at this point. I have no idea what this means in terms of what to do.

I think indifference between a call and a raise, which is what Justin describes from the BB, coupled with the preflop action, means that BB has AKss, or maybe AQss. AA, KK or TT would want to raise with two people in the hand and the board as drawy as it is. That being said, since the possibility of an angle shoot exists (which doesn't necessarily tell Hero if his hand is good, it could be an angle shoot with AKss), I would call and check/fold the river (unless the pot odds were too good), because I don't have enough confidence in the situation to risk that much of my stack. I don't expect the BB to bet the river with a hand that doesn't beat us after we call the 6K.

Edit: The only hand that makes sense for the Armenian to have folded if he has a big hand is AT, so AA and TT are unlikely for BB, he'd raise with KK, more support for him having AKss. I'd still just call and c/f the river, though.

[MLG]

betgo,
why do you think he is angle-shooting as opposed to making a legitimate mistake?