NFL Week 15 Overlays

[rjp]

YTD: 76-66-3 (-0.13 units; ROI: -0.09%)

Seattle Seahawks -455

The point spread is a good median value for this game, but the Seahawks money line is slightly undervalued.

[rjp]

Atlanta Falcons +4 (-105)

All week the big question for Atlanta was the status of RBs Dunn and Norwood. Based on published reports, both Dunn and Norwood are likely to play for the Falcons tonight.

Both teams “must win” this game tonight. Atlanta to have any shot at making the playoffs, and Dallas to have a better chance to win the NFC East. Dallas still has a decent chance at making the playoffs if they lose, while Atlanta would be looking at an even bigger hill to climb.

With all that said, both teams will be motivated to win this game. Dallas is the better team, and they are likely to win this game. The Falcons, however, are likely to cover the point spread.

[Dementia]

Rj, whats your source on the RB's likely playing? This is straight from the falcons
homepage.
RB Warrick Dunn Calf Missed Missed Took Part QUESTIONABLE

RB Jerious Norwood Knee Missed Took Part Took Part QUESTIONABLE
CB Jason Webster Groin Took Part Took Part Took Part QUESTIONABLE
CB DeAngelo Hall Knee Missed Missed Took Part PROBABLE
DT Grady Jackson Knee Missed Missed Took Part PROBABLE
LB Keith Brooking Knee Missed Off Report OFF REPORT
LB Edgerton Hartwell Knee Missed Off Report OFF REPORT
WR Ashley Lelie Thigh Missed Off Report OFF REPORT
C Todd McClure Back Missed Off Report OFF REPORT
T Todd Weiner Knee Missed Off Report OFF REPORT

[rjp]

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sp.../1215dunn.html

[rjp]

Let me put it this way: for as big of a game this is, and their practice status, if they both don't play I'd be about as shocked as I was when the 49ers beat Seattle.

[rjp]

New Orleans Saints -462

The point spread is a good median value for this game, but the money line is slightly undervalued.

Arizona Cardinals +131

This is probably the best value of the week. Since the change to Cutler, Denver has struggled. They showed some signs of life last week in San Diego, but now they’ve got little chance at making the playoffs. Arizona is playing fairly well, and they should be favored to win this game.

Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 (-108)

Thanks to the emergance of Garcia, the Eagles are back in the chase for a playoff spot. This is a “must win” game for both teams, and recent play suggests these teams are fairly even on a neutral field. The Giants are at home, however, so they should be favored to win. The Giants will likely be without their starting center, so although they’re likely to win this game they are not likely to cover the point spread.

[rjp]

Carolina Panthers +140

Delhomme is officially inactive today, but Carolina will have their CBs Gamble and Lucas back this week. This game will again come down to the running game, something Carolina got away from too early last week. Parker rushed for 200+ yards last week against Cleveland, but collectivly the Steelers have performed poorly on the road, having won just one game in Cleveland. This is a “must win” situation for both teams, and both teams have high character players. Over the long term I expect each team to win ~50% of the time, so a positive expectation is had with either team at this price.

[Msgr. Martinez]

You forgot to mention that the books are the ones who had the overlay on these picks.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
You forgot to mention that the books are the ones who had the overlay on these picks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sharps everywhere got rocked this week.

Holla!

[rjp]

It happens.