2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?

[Hyperrrprank]

I think a peel is fine on the flop. The 2 outs to trips are squeaky clean, and while the BDFD is a weak one, the 9 doesn't need to be good very often to add the very small amount of value you need.

I think you do need to be on the ball if and when the flush comes in, any mistakes at that stage erase your value in call.

[Lanzalot]

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FWIW, I did fold the turn. But I'll admit I had trouble estimating my number of outs under the pressure of live action; after thinking about it some more, I really only needed about 3 or 4 to continue (I think?), I'm kinda surprised no one thinks I might have enough here.

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I think you may. "May," I stress. Your calculation for 3 outs no doubt ran something like this: 46/3 or 43:3 or 14.3-1. Getting 12.5-1 can you make up 2 big bets and show a 1/6 of a BB profit? is the question. Dunno. Like MtnDrew said, can you really bet out if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] hits or expect one of the others to bet a worse [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for you? If you discount your outs to 3.5 you need to 12-1 from the pot to carry on profitably, which you are getting. Can you really expect to accurately gauge in the heat of battle whether you have 3 or 3.5 discounted outs? If you can, you play better than me (but then alot of people do).

Bottom line: I think calling the turn shows a very slight profit over time and I would consider doing it if it helped me to not look like a folder.

[*TT*]

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gobb, you know what i mean. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] we don't have anything close to 22:1 here.

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please google implied odds, the hero is on the come - if he hits he will make up the missing bets +++. Hero can easily make 2BB on the turn and river if he hits on the following street. Pots too large, folding is a mistake. Peel and fold liberally on the following street without a set. The 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] only gives the hero a redraw as a backup plan in the event the set fails or the turn checks through, too many players to actually rely on a backdoor club draw as a winner.

[BadBigBabar]

cool thanks i'll look em up