An absolutly WORLD CLASS play in my opinion......your thoughts please

[Speel Posher]

i cant believe this thread is still going. anybody who claims that folding this specific hand on this dry of a board with the action that ensued is just plain nuts. folding sets on coordinated flops is the only way this is possible.

he played his pair to hit a set, and when the perfect flop comes he folds? not right


folding this hand in the long run is losing a lot of value. I dont know how many times i have seen some stupid instance in a live tv poker tournament where a guy flops trips and then folds it because of a read.

if you make a play like this prepare to get run over

[skin city]

I sent mike matusow a copy of this thread and here is his response. this is actually what i figured he would say. which is bad news for me because I AM a lot further than i thought from being a pro...........check it



----------------- Original Message -----------------
From: Travis
Date: Jul 30, 2007 1:24 AM


mike, this is from my forum on 2+2.com i posted it about 2 weeks ago and its blowin' up! like 200 replies. but still no answer as to "why" this hand played out like it did. please help! this situation has me actually questioning my own poker ability. mostly because, if these are plays made by professionals, like yourself, than i am ALOT farther back than i thought!

INSERT ORIGINAL THREAD POST HERE.....

MIKES RESPONSE:
easy opinion, ive folded sets before many times when my read was my set was counterfitted. top players when playing at the top of their game can pick up on it,, thats my opinion..
Mike

thanks again mike

[Gonso]

You were pretty much convinced this was a world class play when you started the thread, weren't you?

It's also possible that this particular guy likes making oddball folds and calls just so he can amaze fellow players when they work once in a blue moon. There's a particular player in our casino that tends to do that - he'll call a big river bet hoping to catch a bluff with 33, seemingly just to show off the "astounding read" that works one in ten times.

Still, from what little you described world class doesn't seem credible. It's a small-buy in, he's limping pairs to open, he's showing his uber tight folds... I don't see how you're so wrapped up on the idea this guy is a superstar, he made a few bad moves in that hand alone.

As far as Matusow goes, I've seen him make some good laydowns, but I don't think I've ever seen him fold a set in anything remotely resembling a situation like this.

All I'm saying is, given the situation as described, folding a set was a horrible play. The fact that this particular time it was the correct play isn't relevant.

[skin city]

[ QUOTE ]
You were pretty much convinced this was a world class play when you started the thread, weren't you?

It's also possible that this particlar guy likes making oddball folds and calls just so he can amaze fellow players when they work once in a blue moon. There's a particular player in our casino that tends to do that - he'll call a big river bet hoping to catch a bluff with 33, seemingly just to show it off.

Still, from what little you described world class doesn't seem credible. It's a small-buy in, he's limping pairs to open, he's showing uber tight folds... I don't see how you're so wrapped up on the idea this guy is a superstar. Everything you wrote seems to suggest the opposite.



[/ QUOTE ]
not at all bro, im not saying hes a superstar. i just know this is a play i had NEVER seen happen before. thats why i asked for your opinions. in regards to mike matusow's reply, he carries a litle more weight than the average poster on here, so i thought id throw that up so you guys could see what the opinion of a (arguably) "world class" player was.....

trust me im not happy with mike's response! i wish he would have said like you guys that the guy is an idiot and he would never make that play. on the contrary, he said "top pros can make that play all the time when they are at the top of their game"......oh crap!

[El_Hombre_Grande]

I don't watch much TV poker, but I don't think I've ever seen this laydown in this situation, so I don't think its anywhere near commonplace. When I watch the top pros play, I see guys that are almost always making plays that are completely within the range of appropriate hand range analysis combined with attention to where they stand in the tourney, chipstacks, etc., so a hand like this would stand out. Really stand out.

Not to mention top pros don't play in nor do they televise low buy in donkaments to begin with. And in my mind, that is a big part of the analysis.

[Flip-Flop]

You can`t know for sure if there are laydowns like this happening often because people usually don`t show them.
This guy however, wanted to check the accuracy of his read and offered to show his hand if Andy shows.
Think about what he is risking here.
He risks to look like a total moron if Andy shows some crap and he risks looking like the tightest nit on the planet which might invite people to bluff him more often all though that can be a double-edged sword.
And yet the mo fo showed his set.
This is crazy stuff.
I`ve never seen a hand like this, I cant explain it and the Mike`s post does not help me much.
Pros make reads and Pros fold sets. Based on what? Voodoo? 6th senses? Gimme a break, I`m not buying that shiat.

There were few good posts in this thread that tried to give some logical explanation about the move but still.. Andy didn`t put him all-in or anything, there is nothing unusual with his betting, can be anything, there is no way in hell you can put him on a set only by his bets.
And then you have tells.
This laydown looks like something Phil Hellmuth would do after the guy`s pupils expand or some shiat like that but even if Andy gave away several high confidence tells that still does not put him on a set.
He can feel confident about several hands on that flop.
He could have played Ax and flop 2 pair, why not.. also the K on the turn would make him VERY confident if he played AK etc..

So..the only solution is:
Skin city, you gonna hit Vegas casinos and find our hero, make him an 2+2 account and make him explain his shiat.
I`m serious.[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[El_Hombre_Grande]

I'd bet my left nut that its not happening much in $50 midnight donkaments.

I was referring to TV poker where we can see the hole cards, in response to Matasow's remark.

I see pros dump sets often. Like when an obvious draw comes home, and it looks like they are beat, Especially in a multiplayer hand with a big bet and a call on a made board its a pretty easy dump in many instances.

This hand is heads up with no draws, in a midnight donkament.

Very different.

[Gonso]

Folding a set in and of itself isn't that big a deal under the right circumstances, even on the flop in some cases. The issue was folding a set the way this hand played out.

I don't watch poker on TV much, but the last set over set I recall seeing televised was Ted Forrest on HSP. IIRC he flopped a set of deuces and wound up facing an all-in. Went in to the tank for a bit, and was not able to get away from the hand. The action was heavier than it was in the OPs hand as well.

[Mike Gallo]

I read this post today at work and I chuckled to myself.

I remember the first time I posted a set over set hand that I lost. It happened at a limit game. I lost the absolute max. I posted the hand and I got a reply similiar to the from Kurn Son of Mogh.

If you flop a set and lose and didn't lose a lot of money in the process, you did not play the hand correctly.

FWIW I could not see myself folding under the circumstances given.

[Memphis21]

I think its a good play, obviously since he was right. If your up against a tight, and it seems like andy is extremely tight, player. Than you know hell only raise from the bb with AK or a a pretty medium to big pair. So, you can beat AK for top two pair (which still has 4 outs) or lose to trip 8s, Ks, and As. So, he can beat 1 out of the 4 hands he could be up against. Not that hard of a laydown. Ive folded a flopped set maybe 10 times my whole life (when there wasnt an obvious straight or flush out there) and I was right all 10 times. But for the most part, your better off just losing with a set, unless you know for sure.