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#11
10-21-2007, 02:15 AM
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Re: PLO tourney hand
[ QUOTE ]
Very impressive. Im going to take an example from Holdem. There is a raise in ep. a mp person calls. hero gets 44 on button and calls. Flop comes Kdtc4d. players 1 and 2 get allin. It is early in a tourney, should hero risk his tourney life for the possibility of being a chip leader early on? I would not fold a set in holdem if winning the pot would substantially increase the likelihood of me making money in the tourney. In our omaha hand, hero is not calling with just a flush draw or with non nut straight draws. Hero is calling with a hand that is fairly live with the knowledge that winning with good to marginal coinflips early in a tournament is one way of improving chances that he goes deeper in the tourney. [/ QUOTE ] A better analogy from Holdem would be if hero has KsQs on a JsTs5h board early in a tournament and there is a bet and a raise to him, but I understand your point. I understand the importance of having a big stack in a tourney because all the big prize money is at the final table, but in general you don't want to make -EV decisions to get there. Hero will still have a decent stack if he loses, but it might be a -EV situation (as the simulations showed). There are many things to consider when calling off a lot of chips with a marginal hand. Is his competition very weak? Can he wait until a better situation to get his money in very good (remember, he is at the beginning of the tourney)? What does he know about his opponents... what is the chance they have a set here? The answers to these questions may tip his decision from a marginal call to a fold. I don't think this is an insta-call. As I already stated, I would probably call here. But if it was a very poor table and it was very early in a tourney I might fold. 
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#12
10-21-2007, 06:50 AM
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Re: PLO tourney hand
without doing any math this seems like a really nice spot to gamble - you are only risking 25% of your chips, and by showing this hand down you may well get action on your bigger hands when the game gets deeper
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#13
10-21-2007, 09:56 AM
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Re: PLO tourney hand
you have so many outs this should be a clear call. I haven't read through all that maths but if it says you should fold, it is probably flawed.
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#14
10-21-2007, 06:03 PM
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Re: PLO tourney hand
[ QUOTE ]
you have so many outs this should be a clear call. I haven't read through all that maths but if it says you should fold, it is probably flawed. [/ QUOTE ] It is an easy gamble if you know the BB is going to call. It is a marginal (possibly -EV) gamble if you know the BB is going to push, which is a very real possibility. Remember you get one more card and only have 13 solid outs. If you just call the 1181 then the BB pushes, you have to call.
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#15
10-21-2007, 06:12 PM
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Re: PLO tourney hand
[ QUOTE ]
without doing any math this seems like a really nice spot to gamble - you are only risking 25% of your chips, and by showing this hand down you may well get action on your bigger hands when the game gets deeper [/ QUOTE ] It isn't just 25% of your chips if the BB pushes. If the BB pushes you will have put in 2557/6256 ~ 40% of your chips. As for getting action later, tourney tables break up so fast that this isn't really an important issue.
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