($27) KQ flops OESD and two overs

[sence25]

I'm also in the cb flop camp, as I think this is the best play by far.
Everything I wrote in this thread is regarding how the hand has been played, obviously after we bet the flop.

Now, after we bet and get raised, you might make a point for just calling because we don't get a fold for a shove often enough.
Let's figure out what he would be raising and fold to a shove.
Random pairs like 66? Some rag T? J9? Prolly that's about it.
He also could just raise for bluff reasons, putting us on overs.

Obviously he isn't often folding if he hit a "good" toppair, like with QJ, KJ, AJ.
JT is also a possibility and never folding to a push.
Also he could hold a set, 33 & TT seem somehow likely, I doubt anyone just flats JJ against a button raise.
Sets will never fold, even if we hit our straight outs, which makes an argument for just an oddscall.

The problem with the hand is that if we just call and he's on a random J, we don't give him the chance to fold(our line looks very strong, raise pf, 3 bet AI flop - he might fold a ragged J or a T, tho I doubt he has a T often here).
And he has to have a J or something less strong pretty often here, just because sets and twopairs are much less likely.

It just feels like if we call, we have to keep the pot small when we hit our six overcard-outs, because we just called because we thought those overs are no good very often.
Now if they are good we don't get much more value because a J won't want to play for stacks(unless he just made 2p) and a weaker hand than a J might even c/f if we hit on the turn.

So of our undiscounted outs 10/14 are overs to the board, and might kill our action, that's why I advocated a shove, thinking we get about ~45% eq against a random J(which is his most likely holding), making this an ok play with already this many chips in the pot.
Obviously for a valid hand analysis we would have to calculate our equity against his range and also count in the cases he raise/folds.
But I don't have time for this right now.

Well, I talked to finnisher a bit about this hand, and he did some math stuff(always good to know scandinavians).
We came to the conclusion that shoving~calling > folding, while shoving is prolly causing huge variance.


Also, OP, pls check behind in the future, allowing me to learn more for my uni tests.

[donkeykong2]

why is check behind flop the best play by far? i dont think you re gonna get raised a lot here and we fold out all the pp and maybe a ten. if villain was very aggressive we could shove over him if he raises a lot, a nit folds a lot here, so id bet here every time.

[TruFloridaGator]

Still not sure what is best, but checking allows us to take the lead vs hands we're behind & still bet the turn vs like Ax & smaller pairs to fold them out.

[Jaqrabbit]

I fully expect he'll fire again on a blank turn, where it's possible we'll have to fold. So, I don't hate folding to the flop c/r. And I agree we've probably got some FE here, especially if he thought our pf raise was a steal attempt and is c/r-ing our c-bet light to resteal.

So can we assume you're in favor of the shove here AMT?

Edit: Also, re: checking behind. When we bet to fold out PPs and tens, we've got the wrong goal. We want to hit our draw and have pockets and tens pay us off. If we miss and they check the turn, we can bet there to fold out weak hands or check and keep chasing.

Re: sence about shoving: Looks like the main difference here is you put a lot more weight on the possibility of a weak J than I do here. If we assume a weak J is a big part of his range here, I think the shove is probably good here, I just have a hard time seeing it after the c/r from a pretty tight player.

[Luisgallo]

I tend not to raise KQ that early, even from the button.
I usually just call.

Post flop: I don't like betting here, any pair can easily check raise you while a free card is gold.

As played: I would flat call his reraise and play in position the rest of the hand.

[AMT]

not necessarily, i just found that those two arguments didnt seem to work well together. I actually like checking behind on the flop vs aggro opponents, but the reality of it is as played its unlikely that theres a huge difference EV wise between shoving and calling the flop.

The more FE you think you have on the flop, the more you should look into jamming it, and with these stats (Jaqrabbit, these are tight L2 stats? Yikes, I don't want to tell you how tight I am in L2 then, ive never heard of a winning reg like that at this level) I think there is a valid argument for FE and him being on a wideish range, at least including all weak made hands and sometimes air and worse draws.

[sence25]

[ QUOTE ]

Re: sence about shoving: Looks like the main difference here is you put a lot more weight on the possibility of a weak J than I do here. If we assume a weak J is a big part of his range here, I think the shove is probably good here, I just have a hard time seeing it after the c/r from a pretty tight player.

[/ QUOTE ]
yea, basically what AMT said, 24 VPIP is pretty damn loose for me..

[TruFloridaGator]

I'm looking at the 2.1 over a significant sample. You could of checked how often he c/r the flop & it was probably like 1-2 times.

[donkeykong2]

[ QUOTE ]


Edit: Also, re: checking behind. When we bet to fold out PPs and tens, we've got the wrong goal. We want to hit our draw and have pockets and tens pay us off. If we miss and they check the turn, we can bet there to fold out weak hands or check and keep chasing.



[/ QUOTE ]

a lot of these hands will not pay us off anyway (any underpair) and those that are likely to do so (pair and ace if it hits) will pay more if you have bet the flop. against passive players this is a very easy bet as you re almost never worse than 50/50 here and often you are 50/50 and he will lay his hand down.

[Jaqrabbit]

Yeah, I'm not that great at reading PT stats, so I might be a wee bit confused on how tight that is. Also, wasn't considering the level of the tournament there.