AA vs TAG facing river shove

[Bodhidharma]

Villain is 15/10 after a few hundred hands. He is either bluffing or has a monster, but am I ahead here enough to call?

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $25.09
BB: $28.98
Hero (UTG): $28.86
MP: $7.44
CO: $106.15
BTN: $47.55

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, MP folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.35) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.50</font>, CO calls $2.50, BTN folds

Turn: ($8.35) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $5.50</font>, Hero calls $5.50

River: ($19.35) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets all-in for $97.15</font>

Hero ?

[JS Inc]

Sick spot. Need more info for this one has he overbet shoved b4? How does he view you? Definitely bet the turn next time it makes hand much easier to fold if he crai on turn. But because you showed weakness he could be stealing if your image is donkish to him. But in a vacuum against a 15/10 I fold.

[emKay]

Def bet the turn (value, protection, just so many reasons) and def fold river.

[Jouster777]

The push is only a PSB and the action makes AK very confident here. I call getting 2:1.

If we assume villain has AK, 55, 66, or 22 (range may be wider but this is good enuf)...Then there are 12 combos of AK vs 7 combos of boats/quads. You look like you cbet and gave up and now villain has 2-pair with top kicker and "knows" you don't have a boat so he wants to fold your possible AK. We need to discount AK by 75% before this is a fold. I guess we can throw KK in there but very unlikely

[cb4mvp]

I think you gotta pitch it. Smells alot like a set to me, especially with that smallish turn bet. Strange river to shove, as he might think that killed alot of his action, but I think that this is a fold without reads.

[Warteen]

I'm calling here. You pretty much have to if you're going to check your AA on the turn. Why would you do that? When opponent bets the turn, you should be check-raising at least. Push on the river can be a whiffed flush draw, a king that just got real confident, or even a mid pocket pair that believes you won't call with just a king. The only reasonable holding that beats you here is a boat (55, 66) or like, A2 (in which case, villain might have to raise the flop to protect against the flush draw - not to mention most of the aces and deuces are spoken for). I get it in here and for me it's not that close.

[tms]

As played I call. But please bet the turn and river.

[+EV]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 15/10 after a few hundred hands. He is either bluffing or has a monster, but am I ahead here enough to call?

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $25.09
BB: $28.98
Hero (UTG): $28.86
MP: $7.44
CO: $106.15
BTN: $47.55

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.00</font>, MP folds, CO calls $1.00, BTN calls $1.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.35) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $2.50</font>, CO calls $2.50, BTN folds

Turn: ($8.35) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $5.50</font>, Hero calls $5.50

River: ($19.35) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets all-in for $97.15</font>

Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think there is any way this is a bluff and if would have to be about 80% of the time for you to call so fold. You are behind about 90% of the time here.

+EV

[monkover]

where do you get those numbers from?

[relativity_x]

He'd actually have to be bluffing 22% of the time for this to be a fold.