Monotone flop deep in the 3R

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
I might check/call or c/f here, but I think c/shoving and bet/calling are all better than simply shoving here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Skier--

Why?

--Nate

[HamJam]

shouldnt an "unimaginative boring HOH tag"'s hand range be pretty narrow? pretty much AQ, AJ, and 66-JJ, maybe KQs, hes against an utg raiser w 15bbs.

also i dont think hes likely to make a play here, whats wrong with 200 000 fold to a shove?

[Nate.]

HamJam--

My read is that he's playing ABC modern tournament poker, combined with some probability of being somewhat less imaginative and more scared than your typical HOH disciple.

A world-class tournament player I know is fond of noting that "a dead guy could move in on that flop," and he might say that about this flop too. Villain is maybe a little conservative, not comatose.

The problem with bet/fold is that we will fold the best hand far too often.

--Nate

[skier_5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I might check/call or c/f here, but I think c/shoving and bet/calling are all better than simply shoving here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Skier--

Why?

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

Your equity when called is so much worse when you just open shove. You fold out all of his weaker hands and are simply called by hands that dominate you. Sure you eliminate some of the hands you are flipping with, but when you get called you are usually in pretty bad shape. You are essentially bluffing and are better off shoving Adx here imo since you will be in better shape when called. Check shoving puts you in the same spot, but you pick up way more chips when he doesn't have a hand.

edit: I guess we aren't really folding better hands, so we're not bluffing, but we are setting ourselves up to get it in with the worst of it.

edit 2: I guess sometimes villian makes a hero call when we shove by putting us on the draw, but I don't think it happens very often.

[Nate.]

Skier --

I think the problem with that reasoning is that the hands we beat are so weak that he can't call anything with them. Our equity when we CRAI and are called is not much different than when we shove and are called.

Inducing a bluff is a consideration here and probably one I hadn't considered enough, but I'm pretty sure that folding out more of his near-flipping hands outweighs it.

--Nate

[skier_5]

[ QUOTE ]
Skier --

I think the problem with that reasoning is that the hands we beat are so weak that he can't call anything with them. Our equity when we CRAI and are called is not much different than when we shove and are called.

Inducing a bluff is a consideration here and probably one I hadn't considered enough, but I'm pretty sure that folding out more of his near-flipping hands outweighs it.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize our equitys are similar when we are called, but when he folds to our c/r we gain more than if we open shove. Actually I rethought this, he likely will be commited with semibluffs if we check shove, so our equity is better.

I can't argue either way on the folding out flips, etc, but I'm pretty sure that c/c here creates the best mix of inducing bluffs and retaining the value our hand does have.

I mean, i think that bet/calling is a pretty bad option, but I think it is better than open shoving since we will get it in with semibluffs as well.

[Nate.]

"I mean, i think that bet/calling is a pretty bad option, but I think it is better than open shoving since we will get it in with semibluffs as well."

Skier --

So so so many of these semibluffs have better than 2/5 equity against us, and therefore we prefer that they fold. Factor in tournament considerations and the issue becomes even starker.

--Nate

[skier_5]

[ QUOTE ]
"I mean, i think that bet/calling is a pretty bad option, but I think it is better than open shoving since we will get it in with semibluffs as well."

Skier --

So so so many of these semibluffs have better than 2/5 equity against us, and therefore we prefer that they fold. Factor in tournament considerations and the issue becomes even starker.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

Yah, I agree with that. I'm just saying that getting it in with Ad3s, or red nines is much better than QcKd or for that matter KcQc or something.

To be honest I'm not really well versed anymore in how the tournament situation and the relative stack sizes matter here, but I think this comes down to a range and how often he holds certain types of hands and calling percentages, etc.

[Nate.]

Skier --

9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has 11 outs against us. Factor in tournament risk-aversion and I think we prefer to fold it out than commit a 2x-pot stack with it.

--Nate

[NYTyler]

what does HOH stand for? Sorry, still trying to get used to the lingo.