Jameser <3 's porn

[Haupt_234]

UTG+2 is 13/9/3.09/605
MP is 23/12/5.33/75

What is your flop play and why?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero ????

Haupt_234

[Oracle]

He likes his hand a lot. Donking into a PF capper = I fold unless I have a good read. We can't even be sure we have live cards here.

[Grease]

I fold, but if there were one spade on the board, I might call, but folding is probably the best option, since he is undeterred by your PF cap.

[Six]

I probably fold, but how about a raise?

AK: 9
AQ: 12
AA: 6
KK: 6
QQ: 3
JJ: 6
1010: 6

Basically dead against 9, 6+ outs against 12, 3 outs against 18, tie with 9. If we knew we've got 6 outs it's an easy call, we could even call with 3 but wouldn't want to face a bet on the turn. A raise here (assuming MP calls) is 8:1 but probably shuts down the action from almost anything that beats us and gives a chance to check through with position.

I dunno, it's interesting.

-Tim

[Greenthumb]

i hate to fold with the size of this pot, but i hate to just call even more, so i would raise by proccess of elimination without any logical math or game theory and probably lose a lot of money being a [censored] on further streets. but thats just me.

[Chipspin]

MP seems overly aggro to me. Still tho, AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AQ look probable.

Lay it down.

[RyanCMU]

I fold

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically dead against 9, 6+ outs against 12, 3 outs against 18, tie with 9. If we knew we've got 6 outs it's an easy call, we could even call with 3 but wouldn't want to face a bet on the turn. A raise here (assuming MP calls) is 8:1 but probably shuts down the action from almost anything that beats us and gives a chance to check through with position.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the problems you have to consider when counting outs is that you have the potential to hit an ace or king and still be behind, losing more bets. Reverse implied odds factor in greatly here.

Haupt_234

[five4suited]

I raise the flop. IMO MP's ludicrous aggression factor means we could easily be facing middle pair, we want UTG to fold, and the pot is already large. If UTG 3-bets or cold calls we're unhappy (fold to 3-bet, most likely fold turn UI), but if he folds we've isolated aggro guy. Now for the turn...

there is a decent chance we're reverse dominated. if mp just calls our flop raise and C/R the turn, I fold UI. if I improve on the turn, I'd bet, call a C/R and make a crying call on the river, or bet the turn/bet the river.

[Haupt_234]

[ QUOTE ]

I raise the flop. IMO MP's ludicrous aggression factor means we could easily be facing middle pair, we want UTG to fold, and the pot is already large. If UTG 3-bets or cold calls we're unhappy (fold to 3-bet, most likely fold turn UI), but if he folds we've isolated aggro guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that UTG is 13/9/3.09/605 and raised preflop, then called 2 cold back to him when it was capped. His call isn't saying "Well, im already in the pot for 2 bets so why not toss in 2 more", but rather, "I have a premium hand that is worth putting in 4 bets PF".

Another problem is that the strength of his hand is pretty vague. MP1's hand strength is pretty clear since he 3bet a raiser, and hero's is even more defined since he coldcapped. But MP1 mearly raised preflop and then called a cap. We know he is strong, but just not how strong.

Also, I think my position relative to the other 2 villans sucks. It may, in fact, be the worst case scenario position-wise since I am pinned between a LAG and a tight, overly aggressive player. If MP1 had any sort of hand, he would likely c/r the flop given the preflop action and his aggression factor. This was the main factor that crossed my mind when considering what my action should be...

Haupt_234