Super extra-de-dooper thin value betting ($50 NLHUSNG)

[TNixon]

Full Tilt Poker, $50 + $2.50 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 30/60 Blinds, 2 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): 2,000
BB: 1,000

Pre-Flop: (90) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">Hero raises to 150</font>, BB calls 90

Flop: (300) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (300) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [ 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (300) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [ K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero ???


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The way this game had played up to this point, I was fairly sure he didn't have a pair (this villain probably would have bet the river even with a pair of 2s, and yes, there are plenty of people that dumb).

He was also something of a blufftard, which led me to believe there was a fair chance he just had an ace he wanted to showdown.

He is also a calling station (I swear blufftard+callstation is the most common combination of attributes in most of the villains I play, and it's a WEIRD combination, I really don't understand it at all) and will call 100% with any pair, and there is at least some chance that he might have checked down something really weak, like 33 or A2. He is enough of a calling station that I'm probably 75-80% sure that if he *does* have an ace, he's going to call as much as 100 or 150. But since he is a blufftard, there's also some chance he will raise, which will destroy my read, and I'll almost certainly have to fold.

Is it ever worth a super-thin value bet on the end here? Or is that just hopeless/stupid/crazy talk, given that my read of what he has and what he'll do has to be almost perfect?

BTW, I might have missed a bet on the flop here, but this seemed like exactly the sort of flop he's could very easily hit hard enough to checkraise on. It wasn't til his second check that I thought he was probably either just trying to showdown an ace, or had given up on the hand entirely. In this case, there's not really any good reason to bet the turn is there? He *could* be drawing to more than just his pair 6 outs (or 3 outs, if he's really got an ace), and I think probably would have bet any sort of halfway decent draw on the turn. If I did miss a bet somewhere before the river, please feel free to comment on my ultra-weakness throughout the entire hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]