live WSOP satellite: AKo facing a spastic re-raise

Slim Pickens · #1 07-10-2007, 02:53 PM

live $175 WSOP satellite: The payout is $1500 in buy-in chips and $120 cash to the winner, nothing for second. Deals are common but these players are likely to hate me for "raising too much" by the end, so I'm thinking it'll have to be winner-take-all. I am much better than any of the remaining players.

Reads: Button is a spastic woman whose husband bought her in. I remembered a phone conversation she had while in line behind me that involved shoving K4o into J9s and losing. She makes a lot of too-big raises, once laying down a 10 BB open-raise to my 30 BB push. Every time I've seen her show down a hand, it's been decent. She got her stack by AK>KK and JJ>AA AIPF. SB has been fairly tight.

On the hand in question, Button thought for about 10 seconds before pushing. SB called immediately after looking at his cards.

blinds: 100/200, 5 players
Hero (t3300)
CO (t700)
Button (t4000)
SB (t1200)
BB (t800)

Dealt to Hero: AKo

Preflop: Hero raises to t600, CO folds, Button raises all-in t4000, SB calls all-in t1200, BB folds, Hero ???

If I call there will be t3800 in the main pot and t4100 in the side pot.

TheSug · #2 07-10-2007, 03:13 PM

You only really want to see her turn over A/x and SB may have some of your outs if she flips up a pair.

If you are that much better than the rest of the table then play skill > possibly flipping against a pair.

Fold and own the table IMO.

darinvg · #3 07-10-2007, 03:25 PM

I know nothing about satellite strategy but it seems like this is a great spot to get them in since we are actually playing for 1st.
Also, your read the she sucks and they think you raise too much makes me want to call.

cban · #4 07-10-2007, 03:59 PM

Yes with your read, I'd be thinking worse A. Call and ship it. You are CL. Since you are playing for first, and blinds are getting up there, I think its a trivial call.

edit: i misread , didnt see the other call in there. I still call it though. Since i wouldnt fold to the womans push and still think i can win at least a side pot. Or make a huge stack. If blinds go 200/400 next level, I call without too much thought. She could easily have AQ. I just cant convince myself folding is a good idea.

durron597 · #5 07-10-2007, 04:01 PM

i would call for sure in a WSOP satellite and fold online (50/30/20)

cban · #6 07-10-2007, 04:11 PM

yea, looking at the stacks, you have a VERY good opportunity to put yourself in the drivers seat by calling here. you shouldnt pass it up.

AMT · #7 07-10-2007, 04:13 PM

I think I'd call in this winner take all structure.

Especially because we see/hear that she is capable of shoving wide enough from previous hands. too big an edge for the winner take all structure IMO

fluorescenthippo · #8 07-10-2007, 04:15 PM

id call in a winner take all. if there is a chance you will be chopping is closer.

Gramps · #9 07-10-2007, 04:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
live $175 WSOP satellite: The payout is $1500 in buy-in chips and $120 cash to the winner, nothing for second

[/ QUOTE ]

Imagine the pwnability that exists when you win this hand (or at least beat spastic lady) and the blinds go up to 200/400 in the winner-take-all-SNG-where-people-still-call-way-too-tight-and-do-stoopid-[censored]-like-complete-fold-their-SB-with-5 BB, etc. Besides, spastic ladies are prone to have dominated hands in their range here, I doubt you're much worse than 50/50 against her with a nice overlay, and hard to think SB is ahead of your range (50/50ish or tad less?).

The "random donkish play out of blue" factor is higher the lower you go in buy-in in these live satellites, not that they're playing wide here, but certainly wide enough to make the call.

Slim Pickens · #10 07-10-2007, 07:53 PM

FWIW I would have instantly called if SB hadn't called so quickly. I put him on {JJ+,AK} when he does that, so I'm about a 60/40 underdog to his range and maybe a 55/45 favorite over Button. There's no doubt I'm ahead of Button's range. I probably win the main pot 1/3 of the time at best. The thing is I'm almost positive I can pwn almost everyone no matter what the outcome of the hand if I fold. The table is really bad and I see taking a neutral EV gamble as a waste of future +EV gambles. As it stands, this one looks to be slightly +EV, so it makes it a tough decision.