.50/1 Home Game AK

[Jeff76]

Villain in this hand is super loose, playing most hands and raising 75% of the hands he does play (let's give him 60/40).

I have 3bet him a couple of times in position- once he layed down and once he called and moved in on the flop.

Blinds $0.50/$1

Stack Sizes:
Villain $122
Hero $160

Cards:
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Pre-Flop:
Folded to Villain raises from CO to $4.
Button folds
SB Folds.
Hero raises to $16.
Villain calls

Flop ($32.50)
Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero bets $30.
Villain raises to $105 and is all in.
Hero ????

Reads: this is the second time he has done this to me, and I'm pretty sure he plays a set (and probably even two pair) slower. He probably has a pair, but could have a flush or straight draw. He got up and walked away from the table- I didn't think he wanted a call.

[Johnes Benjamin]

Against a complete maniac you want to play more pot control. You shouldn't be 3betting preflop knowing he is capable of pushing flop and if folding is a big possibility for you, otherwise you're just handing him money when the flop doesn't hit you.
I'd just call and then you can wait to hit and still get paid off. Either that or wait for a hand you know you are committing almost any flop with to get heavily involved like this.
Definitely don't bet into him like this on flop, he will come to you, just be patient.

[jhill3535]

The hands you have to be worried about are KQ, KJ, AJ, and AQ

If that is his range then your equity is:

Board: Qs Jc 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.695% 26.13% 00.57% 9312 202.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 73.305% 72.74% 00.57% 25924 202.00 { AQs-AJs, KJs+, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }

If he has a hand like TT-77, 66-22, then your equity is:

Board: Qs Jc 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.100% 38.10% 00.00% 18105 0.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 61.900% 61.90% 00.00% 29415 0.00 { TT-77, 55-22 }

There is $167.50 in the pot and it is $75 to call, so you need about 31% equity to make the call breakeven.

You are right, it is very close. If he has TT-88, then a fold is a mistake. If he has one of your out counterfitted, then a call is slightly bad.

If we merge the two ranges, and maybe throw in some hands like JT and QT, we are:

Board: Qs Jc 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.714% 32.53% 00.19% 34776 202.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 67.286% 67.10% 00.19% 71740 202.00 { TT-77, 55-22, AQs-AJs, KJs+, QTs, JTs, AQo-AJo, KJo+, QTo, JTo }

So as you probably guessed. It looks like it doesn't matter what you do. Call and fold both look break even to me.

[threads13]

I thought you played .0005/.001 at your home game? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Well this just sucks, you may have as many as 10 outs. You may only have 4, call it 7 on balance. You are getting ~2.2:1 on a call. You need about 2.8:1 to break even if you figure you have 7 outs on average. If you figure he is more likely to play some pair like this then I think you have to let it go.

What about calling preflop?

Edit: I took out a stupid sentence.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought you played .0005/.001 at your home game?

[/ QUOTE ]HAHA. This wasn't my home game- it was someone else's, but I think it's going to be a regular thing.

So that being said, it looks like this is pretty close to 0ev, so are there meta game implications of calling/folding here, since I'll be playing with this same group of people a lot?

I'd like to hear some ideas about the entire line of the hand, starting with PF. I know villain can fold to a 3bet (he's loose, but he respects my raises) and I'm definitely ahead of his range. However, building a big pot OOP kind of sucks. OTOH, he doesn't tend to pay off when he's behind, so if I flop an A or K, I'm probably not getting much. This was my reasoning for 3betting- I figured he'd either fold pf (which he'd done a few times) or fold on the flop if he whiffed, which he will usually do.

Another factor is that basically I'm the only person at the table who has 3bet (I did it with A3 from the button, K8 as a squeeze that worked brilliantly, and AK from the big blind that ended up going to showdown and winning a $120 pot) or check/raised a flop (which got two players to fold- I had TPWK in a limped pot). My image is probably fairly TAG- I haven't played many hands, but I've been very aggressive with the hands I've had.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I thought you played .0005/.001 at your home game?

[/ QUOTE ]HAHA. This wasn't my home game- it was someone else's, but I think it's going to be a regular thing.

So that being said, it looks like this is pretty close to 0ev, so are there meta game implications of calling/folding here, since I'll be playing with this same group of people a lot?

I'd like to hear some ideas about the entire line of the hand, starting with PF. I know villain can fold to a 3bet (he's loose, but he respects my raises) and I'm definitely ahead of his range. However, building a big pot OOP kind of sucks. OTOH, he doesn't tend to pay off when he's behind, so if I flop an A or K, I'm probably not getting much. This was my reasoning for 3betting- I figured he'd either fold pf (which he'd done a few times) or fold on the flop if he whiffed, which he will usually do.

Another factor is that basically I'm the only person at the table who has 3bet (I did it with A3 from the button, K8 as a squeeze that worked brilliantly, and AK from the big blind that ended up going to showdown and winning a $120 pot) or check/raised a flop (which got two players to fold- I had TPWK in a limped pot). My image is probably fairly TAG- I haven't played many hands, but I've been very aggressive with the hands I've had.

[/ QUOTE ]

In regards to the 3-bet. I would think that against this guy it wouldn't work as well unless he has an proclivity for folding to your 3-bet. I think most of the time you are going win up playing a big pot OOP against a player who is unlikely to fold. Since the stacks are deep, I think you can demote the importance of value-raising and try to just get yourself in a favorable situation. I think big pots OOP against a loose player with big cards isn't very favorable.

[Jeff76]

Any thoughts on the meta game of calling/folding?

I took a looong time to decide, and I said that I was drawing if I called. When I said that, villain said "oh, then I want you to call" and seemed genuinely relieved that I didn't have a made hand. It was pretty clear he only had one pair, and I think he'd have re-raised my PF 3bet with a big ace, so I had a pretty good feeling most of my outs were clean. I wasn't sure of the exact math at that point, so I figured it was moderate ev or break even to call, but there might be some meta value in defending here (as in, if I show down ace high people will be less likely to bluff me in the future).

I think in the end, a fold is probably best, but it was a razor thin decision.

On a side note- I am enjoying the aspect of playing in a regular game where I can think in between games how to exploit the tendencies of the other players. This will be the first time I've ever gotten involved in a regular home game playing for meaningful money, and it was a ton of fun.

[threads13]

It depends on how you are playing these guys. If you are going to call then people will see you are willing to gamble and may give you more action. If you fold people may try to push back at you. Are these guys good enough to make either adjustment? What is the general weakness of these guys? I think those two questions are key to knowing whether or not you should make a call or fold based purely on metagame.

As it is, I still think you should fold. I don't think you have enough outs to call on average.

[Landlord79]

[ QUOTE ]
It depends on how you are playing these guys. If you are going to call then people will see you are willing to gamble and may give you more action. If you fold people may try to push back at you. Are these guys good enough to make either adjustment? What is the general weakness of these guys? I think those two questions are key to knowing whether or not you should make a call or fold based purely on metagame.

As it is, I still think you should fold. I don't think you have enough outs to call on average.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT, these are all good points.
The key is that the villain will bluff at you at the wrong time and you will bust him. Practice pot control until that time. AK OOP is bad in cash games, though the lack of a rake helps some. Preflop, just practice pot control and smooth-call, see what his standard CB is and try to build a line on that.

Just hit a big hand and ck-raise or donk bet into him big and wait for him to blow up!

[jhill3535]

IMO: You don't want the other players thinking that you are willing to call them down with A-high, if they are any good they are going to start value betting you to death in situations you would prefer that they check and keep the pot smaller.

However, I am inclined to call here, but I would say something like, I know I am behind, but what the hell, lets gamboooooool (knowing that it isn't a huge gamble really, but they might not see it that way). I want the other players to think that I am willing to gamble it up with them, but not that I am just a calling station.