Dr Bob NFL

[kdog]

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3 Star Selection
***OVER (37 1/2) - TAMPA BAY (-3.5) 28 Arizona 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
Tampa Bay’s offense has been better than their scoring average of 18.4 points indicates, as the Bucs have averaged 5.8 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Some miscues down in the red-zone have led to the lower than expected scoring, but those events are not likely to continue to happen and Tampa should move the ball well against an Arizona defense that is 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defense). Tampa has injuries to the offensive line and to their running back unit, but they’ve run the ball at a decent level since top linemen Luke Petitgout went on the IR before week 5, and running back Earnest Graham is doing a good job running the ball (Tampa has run for 260 yards at 5.2 ypr the last two weeks). Arizona’s offense is also better than their season average of 0.3 yppl better than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl) now that Kurt Warner is the starting quarterback. Matt Leinart was horrible early in the season before getting injured (just 5.4 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while Warner has averaged 7.4 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. Warner was also considerably better than Leinart last season, so there is no doubt that Arizona is a better offensive team now than they were earlier in the season. Warner was knocked out early in his first start against Carolina in week 6, but the Cardinals averaged a solid 5.0 yppl in Warner’s first full game at quarterback against a very good Washington defense that would allow just 4.3 yppl at home to an average team. I rate Arizona’s attack at 1.1 yppl better than average with Warner at the helm and the Cardinals’ offense has an advantage over a solid Buccaneers defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl against teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team). Both offensive units have a clear advantage in this game and the Over looks like a very good play given that the total is a few points lower than an average NFL total. The Over even looks like a value if Tampa Bay continues to have trouble scoring in the redzone. Tampa Bay’s games have averaged 35.2 total points against teams that combine to average 40.2 total points per game, which is 5.0 below average). Arizona’s games average 43.4 total points against a schedule that combines to average only 37.4 total points, which is 6.0 points more than average. The average points scored in an NFL game this year is 42.0 with the median total points at 40 ½ points. Even just using compensated points would yield a fair total of 41 ½ points (40.5 median -5.0 + 6.0 = 41.5) and that doesn’t even take into account that Arizona is now a better offensive team with Warner at quarterback. The total is simply way to low and my math model is a solid 87-55-3 picking the Over when the difference is 6 points or more and the total is less than 48 points, including 8-3 this season. I’ll go OVER 38 points or less in a 3-Star Best Bet and the OVER is a 2-Star Best Bet from 38 ½ points to 41 points.
My math model also favors Tampa Bay by 6 ½ points and the Buccaneers apply to a solid 61- 21-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator while Jon Gruden is 24-11-2 ATS in his coaching career as a favorite or pick following a loss. That trend lost last week because of 3 random Jeff Garcia interceptions (he had thrown zero picks in the first 7 games and averages only 0.7 per game in his career). Tampa Bay out-gained Jacksonville 385 yards at 6.0 yppl to 221 yards at 3.7 yppl and would have won easily if not for the -3 in turnover margin. Unfortunately, Arizona applies to a solid 71-30-1 ATS situation and I’ll just lean with Tampa Bay in this game based on the math model forecast.
3 Star Selection
***Houston 23 OAKLAND (-3.0) 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
Oakland is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite (1-7 straight up), including 0-3 ATS this season, and the only game this season that the Raiders have won and covered was against winless Miami. Houston was -5 in turnovers last week in San Diego, giving them no chance to cover, but that loss sets up the Texans in a very strong 50-12-1 ATS subset of a 90-33-1 ATS road underdog bounce back situation. Houston is also a better team than Oakland, even with Sage Rosenfels starting at quarterback for the injured Matt Schaub. Rosenfels has averaged 7.3 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback) and his 6.9 yppp average on 227 career pass plays is much better than average (6.1 yppp is average in recent years). Houston doesn’t have much of a ground attack (just 3.3 ypr) but they have still been 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively this season and I rate them at 0.2 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at the helm. The Raiders defense has been 0.3 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team, so Houston should move the ball well in this game. Oakland’s offense has sputtered in recent weeks (just 4.0 yppl and 11 points per game in their last 3 games) and has been 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season, which is just as bad as a Houston defense that also 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl). Houston has an overall advantage from the line of scrimmage, but Rosenfels is a bit interception prone and the Raiders have a 2.8 points advantage in projected turnovers. Even with that advantage my math model only favors Oakland by 2 ½ points in this game, so the line is fair. The situation strongly favors Houston and I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-1.15 odds or better) and for 2- Stars at +3 (-1.20 or worse) down to +1 point.
2 Star Selection
**INDIANAPOLIS 27 New England (-5.5) 24
01:15 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
If anyone can stop the Patriots it is an undefeated Colts team that is certainly not intimidated by Tom Brady and company, who they’ve beaten 3 consecutive teams. What New England has done so far this season is unprecedented, as winning and covering the spread in each of their first 8 games has never been done before, but I still insist that the pointspreads have been inflated in recent weeks. Lost in the glare of New England’s fantastic start has been the great play of the Colts, who are as good as ever offensively and rate as the second best defensive team in the NFL after compensating for level of opponent. The Colts’ offense is 0.8 yards per play better than average this season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and they have an advantage over a good Patriots’ defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average. The Colts’ defense has yielded just 4.5 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team, but they are at a disadvantage in this game against a Patriots’ attack that has averaged 6.6 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average team. New England just gained 6.4 yppl against Washington, the league’s best defensive team, so the question I asked myself is if the level of the opposing defense has any bearing on the Patriots’ offensive production. I calculated a regression equation for New England’s offense as a function of the level of the opposing defense and site and it turns out that the level of the opponent’s defense has less influence on the Patriots’ offense than normal. My math makes this game a pick, but the math would favor New England by 2 points if I adjust for the fact that the Patriots are influenced less than normal by good defensive teams. I can also make an adjustment based on the fact that New England’s scoring margin of 25.5 points per game is 6.8 points better than their statistics would project. The Colts’ 17.4 points average margin of victory is 3.1 points better than their stats would project, so I can certainly justify a line of New England by 5 ½ if each team continues to out-play their stats as they have so far this season (that’s my adjusted math model at New England by 2 points plus 6.8 minus 3.1 equals 5.7 points). But, there is no way I can justify a line higher than 5 ½ points and I think 2 ½ or 3 points is a fair line in this game. With the line at least fair, we can play the Colts based on a number of high percentage situations. Indy applies to a 47-12-1 ATS scheduling situation that plays on good teams at home after playing 2 or more games on the road. The colts also apply to a 67-24-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation while New England applies to a negative 23-74-3 ATS situation as well as a few other negative situations. I’ll resist making the Colts a 3-Star as they probably should be based on the strong situations, but I’ll take Indianapolis in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more and for 3-Stars if the line gets up to +7 points.
2 Star Selection
**PHILADELPHIA 21 Dallas (-3.5) 17
05:15 PM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
The Cowboys are the 3rd best team in the NFL so far, rating at 1.1 yards per play better than average on offense and 0.7 yppl better than average on defense in 4 games since impact LB Greg Ellis joined that unit. Philadelphia, meanwhile, is just 3-4 straight up and the Eagles have been a major disappointment so far. Philadelphia has been pretty offensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and a bit better than average on defense (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The Eagles certainly have proven that they can be better offensively and the defense is getting healthy again after struggling for a few weeks without star CB Lito Sheppard (he’s played just 3 games) and star S Brian Dawkins, who has played just 2 games but will be back this week. My math model favors Dallas by just 1 ½ points in this game and the Eagles apply to a 73-26-2 ATS home underdog momentum situation. I certainly don’t mind taking points with an Eagles squad that is 36-20-2 ATS as an underdog in coach Andy Reid’s 9 seasons. I’ll take Philadelphia in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points (-1.20 odds or better) or more.
Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (-4.0) 21 Carolina 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
Carolina’s offense has really struggled without starting quarterback Jake Delhomme, as backups David Carr and Vinny Testaverde have combined to lead the offense to just 4.5 yards per play in 4 games against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team. David Carr will start this game and he’s been particularly bad this year (4.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB), but he’s likely to play better than he’s been playing and I rate the attack at 0.5 yppl worse than average with Carr at the controls. Don’t expect much production from that unit in this game against a stout Titans’ defense that has yielded just 4.9 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. The only problem with the Titans is an offense that has been 0.7 yppl worse than average with Vince Young under center. Young has had a horrible season throwing the football (5.2 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) and Tennessee’s rushing attack has been only average this season (4.3 ypr against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr). Carolina has been slightly better than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl), so Tennessee is likely to produce around their average number of points in this game (they average 20.7 points per game). The Titans defense has given up 14 points or less in 5 of their 7 games with the only two teams scoring more than 14 points being good offensive teams (Indy and Houston) – something which Carolina certainly is not. My math model favors Tennessee by 7 ½ points and the Titans apply to a solid 158-92-9 ATS statistical profile indicator. Carolina is 22-7-2 ATS as an underdog in recent years, which basically cancels out the angle favoring Tennessee. The value is still on the side of Tennessee and I’ll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at -4 points or less and I’d certainly take the Titans in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less. Strong Opinion
Strong Opinion
MINNESOTA 21 San Diego (-7.0) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 04-Nov-07
San Diego didn’t look so good early in the season but the Chargers have won and covered in 3 straight games heading into this affair with the Vikings. The line on this game suggests that the Chargers are back to being the Chargers after struggling early in the season, but that may not necessarily be the case. San Diego has played better the last 3 games, but it’s pretty easy to look good when you’re +10 in turnover margin in a 3 game span, as the Chargers have been in their last 3 games (+5 TO last week against Houston). San Diego is clearly a good team, but being favored by 7 points on the road against a decent Vikings team is a bit of a stretch. Minnesota is only 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback and the Vikings are 0.1 yppl better than average on defense. San Diego is 0.4 yppl better than average on offense for the season and just average defensively (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team). My math model favors San Diego by only 1 ½ points, so there certainly appears to be an overreaction to the Chargers’ recent success. Now, it certainly is possible that San Diego will continue to play at the level they’ve played the last 3 games (without the benefit of +10 in turnover margin, of course), but the math would only favor San Diego by 7 points if I only used their last 3 games – so the current line is assuming the very best from the Chargers. There is no valid reason to throw out San Diego’s first 4 games of the season, so the true line is probably closer to 4 points or so. Even if the line should be 7 points the Vikings are still worth a look given that they apply to a solid 158-92-9 ATS statistical profile indicator while San Diego applies to a negative 35-61-1 ATS letdown situation. The only game Minnesota has lost by more than 7 points this season was a respectable 10 point loss on the road at Dallas, so they can certainly hang within 7 points at home today. I’ll respect San Diego’s recent success enough to keep me from playing Minnesota, but I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

[Murphinator]

Thank god, I have NE and Dallas. I feel a lot better now that he's on the other side.

[Jazzy3113]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank god, I have NE and Dallas. I feel a lot better now that he's on the other side.

[/ QUOTE ]

[alwardc4]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank god, I have NE and Dallas. I feel a lot better now that he's on the other side.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I love being on the other side of someone who is ten times better at sports gambling than me.

[livin_a_lie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Thank god, I have NE and Dallas. I feel a lot better now that he's on the other side.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I love being on the other side of someone who is ten times better at sports gambling than me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You drank that koolaid didnt you?