A tough variance problem (at least for me)

[TNixon]

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I read your example. It was a confused mess, and the method does not work.

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Wow. On the drive home, I realized what a true maroon I was being here.

std. deviation is a measure of the variation of individual results around the mean, but for my comparison to work, I would have had to be able to compare against the variation of *accumulated* results around the "accumulated" mean, or average expectation.

There's probably a way to do that, but my brain hurts, and it's definitely not as simple as I was trying to make it.

Which is exactly what pzhon was saying here:

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Having a downswing of a particular size is very different from losing that amount in a fixed number of hands.

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He just said it far too simply for me to actually understand.

You can all stop laughing now. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ah well. I told you all I was over my head here, and the easiest way to gain understanding is through massive bouts of stupidity, right?

...

RIGHT?

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]