Set Mining question

[Hitsurume]

Hopefully someone can help me with this, but say your in a 6max game and you pot raise preflop then get 3 betted, how big of a stack would your opponent be for it to be ok to call a 3bet? Also depending on how big the 3bet is?

I'm looking for an answer in terms of BB, Potted preflop would be 3.5bb, standard 3bet would be 12bb etc.

[gedanken]

what are the chances you'll hit a set for the best hand? s

what are the chances that if you call, and hit the set, your opponent bets or calls all-in? a

what was the effective stack size before dealing the hand? e

what does it cost to call the bet? c

if c < sae, it's a call. I suppose you could get trickier factoring in the dead money.

there's a rule of thumb that says you can always call 5% of effective stack, maybe as much as 10%, but many people think this is optimistic, and suggest that "4% always" and "sometimes as much as 8%" is more reasonable.

[gregorio]

YOu will hit a set 11.8% of time, so about 8.5:1 against. So you have to be able to win 8.5x the bet you call every time you hit a set for calling PF to be +EV. So if you knew you were guaranteed their stack if you called, stack size remaining after you call would have to be >8.5x size of bet you call. Since you won't get their stack everytime, people suggest remaining stacks should be 11-13x the size of the bet you call. So if you bet 3.5BB, 3-bet to 12BB, you are calling 8.5BB, so reamining stacks need to be somewhere around 95-110BB.

YOu can take this into consideration when sizing your 3-bets, PF, also. SO when someone min 3-bets with KK or AA to try to get more value, they are giving people odds to call with smaller pairs to play for set value, which is just setting themselves up to be stacked if someone hits a set.

[Hitsurume]

When you say min 3bet, are you saying the 12xbb where you call 8.5bb, or are you saying from 3.5x bb to 7bb?

Or basically if everyone's stack is 100bb, and you have to call 12bb preflop to set mine, i'm not getting the odds to set mine?

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
if c < sae, it's a call.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's not right. You need to consider the possibility that you hit a set and lose. Against someone who started with an overpair, that happens about 20% of the time a card of your rank comes, about 8% from hitting set under set on the flop, about 8% from your opponent spiking 2 outs, and about 4% from flushes and straights.

Your formula suggests that when you do get the money all-in, you win 100% of a stack. You actually average more like 60% of a stack (80% win - 20% loss) if someone with a higher pair will push blindly, so the effective stack size needs to be significantly larger than what you calculated. It's even worse than that, as a good player with TT, or KK on an ace-high flop is unlikely to stack off unless he hit a higher set, which means your conditional probability of winning is lower.

In reality, it gets harder to stack people as the stacks get deeper. When the stacks are several times the pot, it will be hard to stack someone who has QQ when an ace comes on the flop. A good LAG will often bluff you off of your pair, but will rarely pay off a set. Because of situations like this, some players won't pay off enough to justify your call regardless of the stack depths. You either need to find some value when your pair does not improve on the flop, or you will find very limited profit from calling for set value. The tendency to make -EV calls for set value is a common leak for winning NL players.

[Perk76]

[ QUOTE ]
YOu will hit a set 11.8% of time, so about 8.5:1 against. So you have to be able to win 8.5x the bet you call every time you hit a set for calling PF to be +EV. So if you knew you were guaranteed their stack if you called, stack size remaining after you call would have to be >8.5x size of bet you call. Since you won't get their stack everytime, people suggest remaining stacks should be 11-13x the size of the bet you call. So if you bet 3.5BB, 3-bet to 12BB, you are calling 8.5BB, so reamining stacks need to be somewhere around 95-110BB.

YOu can take this into consideration when sizing your 3-bets, PF, also. SO when someone min 3-bets with KK or AA to try to get more value, they are giving people odds to call with smaller pairs to play for set value, which is just setting themselves up to be stacked if someone hits a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Follow the advice of 11.5 - 13 or so for set mining and you are spot on.

If you want to get into the nitty gritty of why, search the micro forum uNL as there was discussion about this with numbers etc.

[lucky_mf]

You might also consider the likelihood that your pocket pair is the best hand. In today's game where so many players 3-bet AK, AQs, and even weaker higher card hands, your pocket eights might well be the best hand after the flop. If you can win some of the times that you call with a pocket pair, without hitting a set you can call more frequently as you don't need to rely on implied odds for profitability. Indeed, if you are being 3-bet by a player that 3-bets light, you often will not have implied odds even with deep stacks because most of the time he doesn't have a hand he is willing to get it all in with post flop.

Lucky

[Hitsurume]

Ok let me know if i'm thinking wrong here:

So if a TAGish player 3bets me preflop and his range would probably be JJ+ AK/AQ, I have the odds to call that 3bet to set mine; if he has the high pp, I can probably stack him off if I hit my low set to his overcard PP, while I can possibly also stack off someone hitting TPTK with AK/AQ while I hit my set.

Now if I'm being 3bet lighter, where ranges include other pp's, KQ/J10 etc, then my implied odds go down because they wouldn't be willing to stack off unless they hit monsters. In this case, would 4betting help against a light 3better or am I just spewing off money in the long run?

Thanks for the information so far, I'm just wondering how to play my low pp's in a 3bet situation as it has been happening often in my games lately.

[gedanken]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if c < sae, it's a call.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's not right. You need to consider the possibility that you hit a set and lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, intended as a gross simplification to get OP on the path to solving this for himself. However, I have to defend myself by noting that my "s" factor was for hitting a set FOR THE BEST HAND, so it needs to be discounted by underset and suckout situations...

"e" should be changed to how much you expect to get in, which is obviously LIMITED by effective stacks, but could be (much) less, particularly if stacks are deep, or opponent can make laydowns or otherwise not pay off.

My formula is probably wrong in other ways, as well. For example, how much do we lose when our set gets beat? (Pzhon's 60% factor addresses this, I think. Pzhons advice is, in my opinion, much better than mine, so for maximal value, stop reading me and reread his post)

Lucky_mf is correct that a medium PP is often the best hand after the flop, even after a 3bet pre, and can frequently win with a cbet or hold up through showdown if the action dries up. The problem is they get tricky to play once overcards fall, so for a beginner, it's often best to avoid those situations by playing mostly no-set-no-bet. If you're doing that, make sure you've got the implied odds to call for the set alone.

[gedanken]

[ QUOTE ]
So if a TAGish player 3bets me preflop and his range would probably be JJ+ AK/AQ, I have the odds to call that 3bet to set mine

[/ QUOTE ]

You're still not factoring in effective stack sizes or the cost to call. If it's a minraise, and stacks are deep, you might have odds to call IF this opponent will pay off with a worse hand. If it's a pot-sized reraise and either of you has limited money behind, you might not, (regardless of the player).