Strange hand vs CTS

[r3vbr]

best play for turn is check-call
maybe even bet very small, so he can raise, and you can push (would be better)

The way you played I think it's close and against an uncreative player this is a fold but against cts you gotta call here because of all the flush-draw combos that he could have checked the flop with, plus JT is a big part of his range and you ahve that CRUSHED. To those that think this is a fold vs. cts watch his cardrunners vids, he def. doesnt like to fold if he thinks he has equity, and will push in these sposts with lots of stuff that JJ is ahead. Also dont forget you still have 6 outs against the 7.

[jfish]

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hate turnbet vs someone as good as cole is.

and he is really really good.

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[bottomset]

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and to do a calculation, giving CTS a range of QQ+, 77, 78,79, AK-ATcc, KQ-KTcc and QJs our equity is 25%. We need 36% equity to call. So id fold.

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I tweaked with this a little bit, I dropped the QQ+ combos in half, just kept the ones with a spade in them, not sure if this is true but I think he'd be a little more likely to check one that has a spade since a turn spade can really help trampbopoline's range(in this hand if he was against a non-spade AA on a 6s turn he'd have 38.6%equity, just 18.1% vs AAwith a spade, when the turn doesn't come a spade it doesn't matter, but it can be a pretty big swing in equity)

also added all the JT just to see what was needed for a call, that would change the equity to 36.9 which is a close call, not sure if he would play JT that way(and it might mean QJo is in there too, which would swing it back to a fold), but it looks like he needs a hand like JTo in his range for this to be a call

[nirzhar_k]

call

[Nick Rivers]

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wtf does this even mean. there is very clearly an answer. the answer is call or fold. they can't both be worse than the other. and folding isn't a losing proposition, it's a 0EV proposition.

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In the long run, folding is a losing proposition. Why don't you play 1000 hands and fold every single time you have the chance. I'd wager you'd be below your starting point. Folding at this point in the hand nets you zero EV from here on out, but, in the more general sense, folding is a losing proposition, and when you allow yourself to get put in spots like this, folding sucks.

To answer Shizzle's question, I'm just saying that a call here is probably pretty close to zero EV. It's impossible to calculate it exactly, of course, unless you knew the villain's range of hands precisely. Given what's plausible the way this hand went down, you could be ahead or behind, and it's impossible to know which. You will probably lose more often than you win, but the pot equity brings your net EV from a call somewhere back close to 0 ev. Just my opinion. I think fretting over this decision isn't really worth a lot. You could run hypothetical scenarios over and over and still get no closer to the truth. Could he have aces? Yes. Could he have JTc? Yes. Could he have 77? Yes. How about 67s? Yes. 45c? It's conceivable. AKc, AQs, QQ, KK, TTT, stone cold bluff, you name it. The range here is huge. Also, do you figure he has put you on a hand. What do you think he thinks you have? It's CTS, so he probably thinks you have JJ. It is times like these where you have to rely on your poker intuition, because a precise calculation of how your hand compares to his is virtually impossible. He knows that if you don't have a straight, this is a very tough call, so that really widens his ability to make a powerful move here. At the same time, he knows you know he knows this, so he could move in with a straight just the same.

I think wondering about what to do here is not the way to analyze this hand because the EV from this decision against the range of possible hands the villain has is pretty miniscule positive or negative. The way to analyze it is to learn how to not get put in this spot again. That's where the real gain in EV lies. This is why I'm saying you might as well flip a coin, because it doesn't matter that much and I don't see how there is really a clear and obvious choice between call or fold. Anyone who disagrees with that premise, that there is no clear choice, will obviously disagree with the rest of my analysis, and that's fine.

[Animus]

If I folded he'd show me 96s, and if I called he'd show me 87. Id fold. Doesn't really need to be said but wtf are you doing on the turn? are you bluffing? are you trying to get value? do you have any [censored] idea yourself?

[btmagnetw]

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In the long run, folding is a losing proposition. Why don't you play 1000 hands and fold every single time you have the chance. I'd wager you'd be below your starting point.

[/ QUOTE ]this is because posting the blinds is -ev, not because folding is -ev. are you a troll?

[NMcNasty]

My first thought at looking at this hand was "wow you have an overpair a ton of outs and he could easily have clubs here so call" but you've really got to fold. I think he's got a 7 almost always. The only hands it really makes sense to check this flop are suited connector hands with a 7, 77, and nothing. He might check a flop like this with an overpair to be super-tricky every once in a while, but then what's he doing on the turn with a shove? It would be turning his hand into a bluff.

High clubs are possible but its just a bad board to bluff, and I think he's smart enough not to. EP raise, midposition reraise, and then when poster just calls a mid-pair is going to be a huge part of his range, probably the majority of his range. So overbet shoving that turn is just running into sets or a straights that are autocalling you pretty frequently. He would have to be insane enough to be counting on you to fold overpairs almost always here for any semi-bluff to be profitable.

[Nick Rivers]

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this is because posting the blinds is -ev, not because folding is -ev. are you a troll?

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You just have to try and see the bigger picture.

[AAismyfriend]

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i think most of the time he has a hand like TJcc or a straight here, likely one that includes a 7... your hand is very possibly a set given the utg open and calling of a reraise. that board crushed that range and cole should know this... so while it's possible and makes a lot of sense that he would have a draw here, it would have to be a pretty big draw. and if he does have a made hand, pushing is pretty much the only size bet that makes sense on the turn given your range. i think it's close but i can definitely find a fold here.

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i agree with vanessa completely here.

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