NL 100: AKo Squeeze

[Cody1982]

I disagree. I think in this situation you can flat call the 3 bet and take the flop. AA-JJ are def in the CO and buttons range. If you shove you would want the CO or button to have QQ JJ P10 AQ even if they have one of those you are only ahead of AQ because AK is still a upaired hand.

[Berge20]

The reason I'm shoving is to try and get the CO to fold JJ/QQ here by using by the 4-bet and the fact that someone is still to act behind him.

Ideally they would both fold b/c it is unlikey that I'm ahead of both of their hands, if either. Just using the power of betting to move them off their holdings and if I'm called, there is a sizable amount of money in the pot to offset the times I'm faced with KK (compared to a ~flip)

[Albert Moulton]

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AA-JJ are def in the CO and buttons range. If you shove you would want the CO or button to have QQ JJ P10 AQ even if they have one of those you are only ahead of AQ because AK is still a upaired hand.

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The BTN is unlikely to just cold call a reraise with AA-KK. He probably has a mid-pair or small pair and is optimistically calling for "set value" despite not really having good implied odds to do so. He might have a suited aces, like AKs or AQs with which he is calling in position. I don't think he can call an all-in from the original raiser, especially if the CO folds.

CO probably has a reraising range somewhere between KK-AA (super tight), QQ-AA,AK (tight), and TT-AA,AK,AQs (semi-loose). Vs these ranges, TT-JJ,AQs and probably even AK all fold. Even QQ might fold. If QQ-AA call, AKo still has 30% equity. Even against KK-AA, AKo has 18% equity. But putting them all in puts a lot of pressure on CO, maximizing your fold equity, and if he folds, then BTN probably folds as well. And if CO calls, BTN still probably folds, and hero sees all five cards without further betting OOP when he's up agains QQ-KK. He's only really in trouble if CO actually has AA, which is less likely than QQ-KK/AK.

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I disagree. I think in this situation you can flat call the 3 bet and take the flop.

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In general, I think that flat calling a reraise out of position with a hand like AK is a leak. Raising or folding is better. You will miss your top pair 2/3s of the time, and even when you hit you will then have to play OOP on every street which makes it hard to win the most when ahead, and lose the least when behind.

[AlexB182]

Push or fold,though I really don't know how much I like shoving here...

[Cody1982]

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I disagree. I think in this situation you can flat call the 3 bet and take the flop.

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In general, I think that flat calling a reraise out of position with a hand like AK is a leak. Raising or folding is better. You will miss your top pair 2/3s of the time, and even when you hit you will then have to play OOP on every street which makes it hard to win the most when ahead, and lose the least when behind.

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Huh,
that makes a lot of since. What about a fold here ?

[CalledDownLight]

I get looked up by all kinds of stuff in this spot from unknowns. I really don't think their ranges are AA/KK. Vs. some nits, definitely, but unknowns, no.

[Albert Moulton]

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I disagree. I think in this situation you can flat call the 3 bet and take the flop.

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In general, I think that flat calling a reraise out of position with a hand like AK is a leak. Raising or folding is better. You will miss your top pair 2/3s of the time, and even when you hit you will then have to play OOP on every street which makes it hard to win the most when ahead, and lose the least when behind.

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Huh,
that makes a lot of since. What about a fold here ?

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At the start of the hand, these were the effective stacks (hero covers):

CO ($69.90)
Button ($41.30)


So, after the CO's reraise to $13, he only has ~$57 left with $30 in the pot, not counting blinds or rake. A push of about $57 more is exerting maximum pressure to win $30 when everybody folds. When they don't fold, the pot odds will be ~$57:$87 (with one caller, since we'd expect button to fold if CO calls) or about 1.5:1.

Against QQ-AA, which we assume will call, then hero's AKo has 30% equity.

Vs other hands, we'll assume CO and BTN fold to the all-in.

What percentage of the time does CO need to fold (assuming BTN will fold too)?

-$13.8 = EV when Opponent Calls w/QQ-AA = (-$57)*.7 + ($87)*.3

Required Fold Equity [FE] vs villains total range required to Break even...
+$13.8 = = $30 * FE

FE = 46%

If CO folds everything except QQ-AA, and if BTN folds every time, then he needs to have a preflop reraising range twice as large as QQ-AA and fold those other hands in order for a push here to break even. With 18 combinations of QQ-AA, if he reraises and then folds with AK(9),JJ(6), and either TT(6) or AQs(4) then this is +EV.

If you think CO calls with AK, then the EV vs his calls goes up some, and the required fold equity goes down some.

Since the OP said something like, "no reads," then he's just estimating villain to have a reraising range of
JJ-AA, AK, and either TT and/or AQs. It's a little optimistic, but reasonable.

Besides, even if hero ends up losing the 3/4s of a buy-in to a big pair, he'll look crazier than he is and end up getting more action later in the session from CO and probably the others, too (hopefully when the stacks are deeper).

If CO had a full stack, then I'd probably fold OOP to the reraise unless I had a read on CO as reraising light and I wanted to try to resteal with either another reraise or maybe a stop & go on any flop whether I hit it or not.