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#1
09-18-2007, 09:35 PM
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(50 NL) - Draw + pair on the turn, bet sizing
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
Not many hands on villain 27 @ 14/14/? I should have been something like 22/17/3 for him UTG ($88.80) MP ($66.90) Hero ($50) Button ($53.25) SB ($106.45) BB ($50) Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>. Flop: ($4.75) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $3.55</font>, Hero calls $3.55. Turn: ($11.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $6</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font> 1) Called on the flop with the intention to bet if there was weakness on the turn. For all I know he could have high cards etc. I also have many cards that I like on the turn 7, any spade, 5,6 I thought about raising the flop but only hands that beat me call, I might be able to fold out an 8 but I think overpairs stay. There are not many hands with an 8 that he could have 87s and maybe A8s 2) Pick up a draw but the flush card makes it less clean outs. I don't mind picking up the 34BB right there 3:1 odds to call are probably too good though so I guess raising more would be a good idea but I wanted at least 1/2 pot left to bet on the river. Shove the turn? 
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#3
09-18-2007, 10:03 PM
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Re: (50 NL) - Draw + pair on the turn, bet sizing
Raise more on turn, since I really think that a 1/2 pot bet is going to fold him out if we get to the river.
Right now villain is calling 12 to win 35.85, so he is getting almost 3-1 on his money to call. Basically this only folds out a 2nd barrel attempt here IMO.
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#4
09-18-2007, 10:57 PM
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Re: (50 NL) - Draw + pair on the turn, bet sizing
Do you think this guy will fold 99? If you think 99 folds, I guess it's ok to bump it up to like 25.
I really don't mind just calling the turn though. I'm not sure there's a ton of FE in this unless he has air, in which case calling is fine anyways.
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#5
09-18-2007, 11:24 PM
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Re: (50 NL) - Draw + pair on the turn, bet sizing
I see UTG with a possible set here that he wouldn't give up, I also see possible overpairs, an open-straight on the turn leaves you being a big underdog. I think a call here would've been a much better move, rather then letting your opponent stack off against you with his sets/overpairs, and with his level of tightness he is very likely indeed to have you beat. Calling on the other hand is a good move, you are getting (including the stacks as well as pot) good IO to stack him off if you hit your straight and fold to his strong hand if you are behind.
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