Value Maximization and Psychology

[BarryLyndon]

Tonight, a very interesting hand came up to illustrate a major problem I have in terms of poker psychology that I really can't stand:

I had been playing for an hour, NL50, with a real donkey to my right. He's been playing super goofy. And, I've been struggling at the table in general, just getting sucky, sucky hands.

This hand against him didn't put me on tilt or anything, but it's important for later in the discussion:

DonkVillain, CO ($72.50)
Hero, Button ($49.50)

Folds to DonkVillain who limps, Hero raises to $2.25 with QQ, folds, Donkvillain calls.

Flop: A 2 8r
DonkVill checks, Hero checks

Turn: 6
DonkVill bets 3.25, Hero calls.

River: 6
DonkVill bets 6.50, Hero calls.

DonkVill shows J6o.

Anyway, about an hour goes by of a lot of frustrating hands and the following comes up.

DonkVill, SB ($82.75)
Hero, BB ($50)

DonkVill raises to 1.50, Hero with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] raises to 5, Donk Vill calls

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Donk. Vill checks, Hero bets 5, Donk. Vill calls

Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero bets 14, Donk. Vill calls

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Donk Vill. bets 16.75, Hero calls.

If I push, it's $11 more. Seems like an easy push, right? I mean, I have KK, he could have QQ, he could have AJo, hell KJ, he could have some totally retarted bluff (not that likely, but still); but I'm definitely calling, so I should maximize value here, right? Seems kinduv obvious. But, that really tough hour breathed this inherent pessism into me and I said "[censored], he has a 2, he's weird, so I might as well save the 11 because if I push and he calls, I'm beat and it would suck."

Somebody explain this to me. Normally, I push, but I made this really weak play that was based on emotion and just totally messed up. And I tend to miss value on rivers like this from time to time.

Barry

[_TKO_]

"And, I've been struggling at the table in general, just getting sucky, sucky hands."

We all do a lot of strange things when struggling at a particular table. I hate getting up when there's easy money to be had, but often times, we can be our own worst enemy.

I think the mistake here was not leaving after an hour of struggling and running poorly.

Sorry, it's not to underestimate your ability to control your own tilt, but you are coming up with words like "struggle" and "frustrating". Judging by your response to my other post, you might be victim to playing too long when out of the zone.

[J.Siv]

You went with your gut.. Nothing wrong with that.. Very possible he could of had a 2 the way he seems to be playing.. Soo, did he have the 2??

[BarryLyndon]

TKO,

Yeah, I may have been too loose in my language when I said "struggling." I was super card dead and there were a lot of raises coming from players who didn't fold to 3-bets and seemed really unbluffable (unless I wanted to try double barrelling, which felt completely unecessary at this table). If there was ever any frustration, is that I wasn't getting playable cards against a table full of live fish.

Don't you think that after a while of playing 6-max at your level, that even with frustration, your decisions/logic take over pretty quickly in a key hand? Maybe, maybe not, which is why the river here was interesting. I do think I need a break, which is why I have been playing some easy SNGs more this week and trying to relax a little.

River maximization, I think, is the most psychological aspect of poker. Preflop play, after a while, becomes fairly reflexive against tables where standard play predominates. Also, after you understand texture analysis for a while, you know when to c-bet / when not to enough that you aren't spewing a buy-in in under 25 minutes from c-betting alone. The turn, I feel, is easily more logic / hand reading than anything else. But the river is where things get intensely psychological - because you have to deal with knowing what your oppponent's threshold is for calling off $$ / leading / raising / bluff raising / etc. when hand ranges are now whittled down to a fairly small amount.

A lot of players hate going to the river, but if you are going to play small-ball, which I tend to do more than most, going to the river is essential. Which means that emotional proclivities against value maximization is KEY to making more $$.

And that's why I'm pissed that I didn't push this river. If villain let me, I would have put my money in with glee on the flop or the turn, but now getting essentially 10:1 on the river, I simply call. His range more than suits 10:1 - QQ, AJ alone make up for 13% of his hands IN SPADES (I'd say they are more like 60% of his hands). On the flop, that's clear, on the turn, it's probably more clear, but on the river, things become murky.

In big pots, I make my river decisions more on emotion than on what's going on at the table. And, J.Sliv, you're new, so here is a lesson you should learn: 1. it didn't matter what he had, I was getting about 10:1 to put in the additional $11; 2. That he has a 2 here is unlikely because he called a 3-bet...very different from a limp call; 3. what he had in this hand is irrelevant; 4. The only thing that matters is that I missed out on expectation.

Barry

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think that after a while of playing 6-max at your level, that even with frustration, your decisions/logic take over pretty quickly in a key hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just the possibility of frustration is enough incentive to leave the table. The problem is that your logic tends to begin to flaw when things haven't been going your way. I think we all suffer from the subconscious belief that results will regress to the mean (ie things have to even out over time). It takes a certain amount of strength to force yourself to act otherwise, to reset your understanding of the mean at the start of every hand. But frustration, anger, and other negative emotions cut into that strength; that is, more of your reasoning is tied up in controlling your emotion. The longer you suffer this effect, the less you can actually apply reasoning to the hand without it being processed through your emotion first.

It's like an overheating engine: it's not safe to drive with one, and it's not hard to cool it down, but you can't cool it down by driving.

[PokerG]

[ QUOTE ]


Folds to DonkVillain who limps, Hero raises to $2.25 with QQ, folds, Donkvillain calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why didn't you bet on the flop. You can't know where you're at by checking. If you bet he folds. If he calls he checks on the turn. You bet again, he folds. You're representing an Ace. QQ is close enough.


[ QUOTE ]
Seems like an easy push, right? I mean, I have KK, he could have QQ, he could have AJo, hell KJ, he could have some totally retarted bluff (not that likely, but still);

[/ QUOTE ]

A standard raise in the SB could also be any Axs, say A5 or Ax diamonds. Flops a straight draw and backdoor nut flush draw and hits the straight on the turn, and the flush on the river. Seems consistant with his betting.

Psychologically, forget the past hour and play the hand you're in now. That's all that matters.

[Flip-Flop]

There is nothing unusual in your thinking really.
Pretty standard.
Just like when you lose confidence after a bad run for a longer period of time or like when you feel like genius after a long good run and it looks like you can`t do wrong.
I can`t think of any "cure" for this other then experience.

Anyway, I disagree with your river play analysis.
I think it`s the easiest street to play and by the time you get there most of the work should be done and you just need to wrap it up... meaning that you should already have a move in mind according to what type of card hits.. a scare card or a blank. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[PokeReader]

Look, for the last hand I really couldn't say whether the play was as much as a missed value bet as you're reading it as now. You played with him for the night, (longer?), and would have a better idea whether the idea of him calling the raise and cbet with a 2, or back dooring flush, or slowplaying a straight after the turn is believable. What it sounds like though that after you had made a reasoned decision and decided to push suddenly doubts appeared about the two. I would think that this possibility, doubting a decision that you had basically already made, is something we always have to fight to play our best and most fearless. You did seem to be playing a little passively with the guy though, I don't have a issue with not cbetting the flop with the ace if there is a reason with a particular player, but was more surprised about the check on the turn. However, only you can really assess whether this makes sense, knowing what you learned from the session. I would try to refuse to allow yourself to second guess any decisions in some sessions, and see whether you feel you are playing better or worse. It may give you a better feeling for when you are honestly rethinking, or just worrying about a decision. I find it useful if I am thinking too much, or let money influence decision making. Hope that helps at all.

[justaPlayer]

Not a thing wrong with just calling the river there. There is no extensive mathematical analysis necessary in cases like these. You can't restrict his range. Period. You have a lot of equity against all possible enumerated hands. You're in the pot with a chimp who could have any 2 cards. Just call it and hope you win.

A lot of the responses seemed to assume that opponent was playing according to some set of logical guidelines, which does not have to be the case at all. I think you missed an opportunity to exploit him much earlier in the hand. Fish will call larger raises than would make sense to us, because they are whimsical and rooted in emotion. That's what makes them weak. I raise back to at least $7.50, maybe even $10 preflop. Then no matter what he does he loses money, ruling out aces. I play out STRONG at the flop. He'll call very weak there and again lose money. I think the mechanical mistake you made this hand was giving too much cognitive credit to your opponent and playing the hand in a standard sort of way, when he is in fact a weak player and could have been repeatedly exploited. Waiting for the river to do so is "wrong." As played, all you can really do is call the river.

If you're losing value at a lot of other rivers, well, stop. Don't do it any more. If you know what your problem is, it's really easy to fix it.

What really hurt you this hand and this session, it sounds like, was the defeatest psychological state you allowed yourself to fall into. I've gone through this, and may again, though I don't think so. Here again, the solution is very simple. You stop playing when you cease to have an advantage. There is no better definition in poker of "not having an advantage" than repeatedly being dealt hands with absolutely no showdown value. J4 is a personal favorite. I like to get it about three times in a row, then graduate to Q3. Quit and go do something you enjoy. Come back with a fresh mind for the game. Frustration in poker = busto.