Shorting the Chiefs at 9.5 wins

[CarlSpackler]

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It is a big loss, for sure. But Roaf did miss six games last year so he wasn't exactly around all season.

But the Chiefs had arguably one of the best lines in the NFL last year, an and they'll still be one of the top even without Roaf.

They signed Kyle Turley in the off season, he's expected to fill Roaf's position. They also have Jordan Black (5th round pick in 2003 out of Notre Dame), and Kevin Sampson (7th round pick out of Syracuse in 2004)

... man i can't wait for football. just starting my season research and starting to talk it is making me [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I thought Turley was slated to start at RT for Welbourn who retired too (at least that's what I read somewhere).

They did just trade for Michael Bennett which is a good move for depth.

Anyone know what the chances are of Roaf, unretiring? I've heard that the Chiefs are trying to talk him out of it, and it's not uncommon for aging veterans to "retire" so they skip training camp, and then come back right before the season starts.

I agree with you that their defense will be much improved. What concerns me the most about KC besides Roaf is the loss of Saunders, who is arguably the best OC in the nfl. Is KC keeping the same basic offense, or are they going in a totally new direction?

As of right now with what I know, that line looks pretty accurate to me.

[arardor]

You are missing the sleeper which is Kyle Svetek or something. He dominated the Euro NFL league and is widely regarded as one of hte top players from that league. Turley is there but his weight is an issue. He is planning to play at 285 - 290 which isn't prototypical.

Sampson was going to start last year until a foot injury on the right side. He has been in that spot since the beginning of camp and everyone else is fighting on the other end.

I would not count out Svetek at the moment but Turley if he can put on "good" weight is a factor.

So you have 3 pro bowlers in the middle with a straight forward runner. Shields, Weigman, Waters. They are going to chip more with TE's and RB's on the left side but Herm Edwards has already said he is going to run the ball 500+ times this year.

Sleep on this defense if you want to. Tamba Hali is going to start over Hicks, Jared Allen is going to be a premier pass rusher. Defensive tackle is a concern. LB's are going to be a strength. Mitchell and Johnson are possibly going to make noise. Mitchell is a sleeper for a pro bowl. CB's is now a strentgh for this team. Chiefs started the season with McCleon starting the first 3 or 4 games and Warfield had no training camp. Safties can hit and do their job. Don't be shocked if the Chiefs have a top 10 defense simply because the offense keeps the ball longer.

10 or 11 wins is assured.

[trapsetter]

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You are missing the sleeper which is Kyle Svetek or something. He dominated the Euro NFL league and is widely regarded as one of hte top players from that league. Turley is there but his weight is an issue. He is planning to play at 285 - 290 which isn't prototypical.

Sampson was going to start last year until a foot injury on the right side. He has been in that spot since the beginning of camp and everyone else is fighting on the other end.

I would not count out Svetek at the moment but Turley if he can put on "good" weight is a factor.

So you have 3 pro bowlers in the middle with a straight forward runner. Shields, Weigman, Waters. They are going to chip more with TE's and RB's on the left side but Herm Edwards has already said he is going to run the ball 500+ times this year.

Sleep on this defense if you want to. Tamba Hali is going to start over Hicks, Jared Allen is going to be a premier pass rusher. Defensive tackle is a concern. LB's are going to be a strength. Mitchell and Johnson are possibly going to make noise. Mitchell is a sleeper for a pro bowl. CB's is now a strentgh for this team. Chiefs started the season with McCleon starting the first 3 or 4 games and Warfield had no training camp. Safties can hit and do their job. Don't be shocked if the Chiefs have a top 10 defense simply because the offense keeps the ball longer.

10 or 11 wins is assured.

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You sound quite informed. What are your views on the Jets and Giants' total win prospects for this year?

[freerollin]

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I think this line is well set. I have the Chiefs winning 10 or 11 games this season.

You overlook a couple big positives. First is a very strong improvement in the KC defense, specifically in the secondary with the addition of Ty Law. He fills a major gap - the Chiefs had one corner who was probably the single weakest corner in the NFL last year, solely responsible for almost all big plays they gave up last year.

Second is the sit down of Priest Holmes (placed on the PUP list) which means not only is Larry the man but he'll be the man without having to worry about splitting carries at all. His stats in the second half of the year were absolutely phenominal and there's little reason to think he won't put in the same level of performance.

One big negative you don't mention is the surprise retirement this week of Willie Roaf. He leaves a big hole in the Chiefs line that they certainly will not be able to fill with anyone comprable, despite his physical ailments.

The Chiefs are likely going to be a superbowl contender in the AFC this year, in my opinion. If they can address the Roaf retirement, easily one of the four strongest teams in tbe AFC and from there its only who performs best in the playoffs.

I also think the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule this year. Always tough given that the AFC West is one of the tougher divisions in all of football, but I also don't see that many challenging opponents either.

I see 9-7 as the lowest KC will go this year, even with a very disappointing season. I expect something more like 11-5 or 10-6, with probable losses @Denver, @Pittsburgh, Seattle at home a possiblity (but the Chiefs are a well known powerhouse at home), maybe dropping a game either @Oakland or @San Diego (or possibly both), and possibly a loss at home vs Jacksonville to end the season (especially if they've already got the West wrapped up, which will be a possiblity). If they lose all of those games that's 10-6. If they only drop one on the road between Oakland and Diego, if they beat Seattle at home, that's 11-4 walking in to the last week of the season which is probably good enough to win the West with the parity there, so they may drop Jacksonville at home by resting starters. Hard to look that far in advance obviously.

Which games do you see them dropping to go 8-8?

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FWIW Hank Goldberg was saying basically the same things this week about KC. He said he was seriously thinking about layig money on them to win it all, mostly b/c they were getting like 17-1. If the revamped D can make an impact they are hyped for, i think 10 wins is a lock

And yeah, football is back my friends, finally [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Hank Goldberg is terrible. I've made money going the other way of what he says.

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hey i never said the hammer was any good, i was just saying that he was saying almost the same things verbatum that our good moderator was about the chiefs. i'm just wondering if i want any chiefs on my fantasy team this year b/c i know i'm not getting LJ as i will be tossing him out early in our auction draft to cripple someone's BR

[rawl316]

I believe the chiefs signed Ty Law just recently. Their starting DB's are top notch, with Law and Surtain.

[Thremp]

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i'm just wondering if i want any chiefs on my fantasy team this year b/c i know i'm not getting LJ as i will be tossing him out early in our auction draft to give someone 2000+ yards and 20+ TDs

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[trapsetter]

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I believe the chiefs signed Ty Law just recently. Their starting DB's are top notch, with Law and Surtain.

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I am conceding that the Chiefs will be somewhat better defensively this year. Law is a big help (if he stays healthy), and Herm is a defensive-minded coach.

I just don't believe this improvement on defense will offset the hit the offense takes this year, I think the schedule is super-tough, and I think Edwards/Solari is a major downgrade from Vermeil/Saunders. I also think the retirement of Roaf is huge.

I see 7-9 for this team, maybe even 6-10. I can't see them posting a winning record. Chiefs fans don't realize how bad an in-game coach Herm is. He'll blow the play-caling in the 4th quarter 2 minute drill a couple of times and cost the team wins singlehandedly. He did it to the Jets every year.

[natedogg]

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I think its ok. Here's my take:

5 games where they certainly would be a prohibitive favorite: SF, AZ, Oak, Clev, Oak.


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If they lay more than 4 at Oakland you should take Oak. I would be shocked if they are considered prohibitive favorites in Oak.


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3 games where they would be a small to medium favorite: StLou, Mia, Balt

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There is no way they should be a favorite in Miami, given what we know now. It's hard to to know how things will shake out by November but at this point Miami has to be the favorite.

Both Baltimore and KC are teams with a lot of question marks. A first-year coach in KC is something to watch out for. Sometimes it works out well but often it takes the team a year to gel under the new coach's scheme. Baltimore has a new QB who also happens to be paired up with his old receiver that he made all his numbers with. Baltimore may come together or fall apart it's just too hard to say.

Losing Willie Roaf is pretty huge. Everyone underestimates the impact of good 0-linemen. They change everything for a team. And a bad line changes everything for the worse. They definitely underperformed in the rungame while Roaf was injured.

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4 other games where they are at worst small underdogs: Cincy, San Diego, San Diego, Jacksonville (I'm discounting

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Agreed. These lines will not break 3 either way I think.


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4 games where they are decided underdogs: Denver, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Denver (not taking into account how they usually roll Denver).

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I only agree with Pitt here. Otherwise they should be close dogs or even a favorite at home vs. Denver.

Overall, I would definitely not be the over 9.5. It may not be a good bet to go with the under but it is certainly a bad bet to expect ten wins from any team in the AFC West, with a new coach, and a missing hall-of-famer guard, and interdivision road games at Miami, Pitt, St. Louis.

Thank god football is back.

natedogg

[arardor]

I am a Chiefs fan. I know my team in and out.

I can however just give a rough view of the two.

I don't like the Jets at all. They have named Pennington their starter. He had a weak arm prior to getting hurt so it can't be much better now. Martin is a year older and they lost their rush end Abrahams. New coach with a young team. Don't expect much here.

Giants are in a weird spot. I have not heard them doing much in the off season to improve while Dallas added TO and Washington got one of the best O coordinators in football. Clinton Portis is going to touch the ball a lot more based on Saunders work with Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. Brunell is servicable enough to move the ball around to the receivers and the good tight end Washington has. His name escapes me. Number 45. The eagles will be competitive but I don't know how much they have left even with McNabb back. That said I can't see the Giants winning more than 10. No clue what their win line is at.

With that said they could start off hot. Barber is awesome and Manning will have another year under his belt. Best DE tandem in the league. Linebackers were hurt late last year too which had a big effect in the end. All things to consider but I haven't looked at their schedule. I believe they won the division so it should be tough.

No expert on any of this stuff. Just watch the chiefs closely.

[trapsetter]

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I am a Chiefs fan. I know my team in and out.

I can however just give a rough view of the two.

I don't like the Jets at all. They have named Pennington their starter. He had a weak arm prior to getting hurt so it can't be much better now. Martin is a year older and they lost their rush end Abrahams. New coach with a young team. Don't expect much here.

Giants are in a weird spot. I have not heard them doing much in the off season to improve while Dallas added TO and Washington got one of the best O coordinators in football. Clinton Portis is going to touch the ball a lot more based on Saunders work with Priest Holmes and Larry Johnson. Brunell is servicable enough to move the ball around to the receivers and the good tight end Washington has. His name escapes me. Number 45. The eagles will be competitive but I don't know how much they have left even with McNabb back. That said I can't see the Giants winning more than 10. No clue what their win line is at.

With that said they could start off hot. Barber is awesome and Manning will have another year under his belt. Best DE tandem in the league. Linebackers were hurt late last year too which had a big effect in the end. All things to consider but I haven't looked at their schedule. I believe they won the division so it should be tough.

No expert on any of this stuff. Just watch the chiefs closely.

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Gotcha. I tend to agree everything you wrote about the Jets and Giants... the one area I would call you out on is saying the Giants didn't do much in the offseason to improve. On the offensive side of the ball, they didn't really add anyone, but they didn't lose anyone either. Defensively, however, they bulked up in a big way. The big signing was LaVarr Arrington, which rounds out their linebacking corps nicely and gives them what is easily the best pass rush in the NFL. Their secondary was a major weak point all year last year. They added a lot of depth in the offseason, signing Sam Madison, Will Demps, RW McQuarters, and a couple of other fill-in guys.

Last year their offense was ranked 5th in the NFL. Eli is a year older, they return everyone, and Sinorice Moss (rookie WR from Miami) should be a good slot guy and will help on special teams. It is not unreasonable at all to expect a decline for Barber, but I can't see him just falling off a cliff. He had a career year last year and keeps himself in tremendous shape. I think he may decline a bit, but I don't think it is going to be a huge dropoff. He'll probably get fewer touches as they look to use Brandon Jacobs in more than just short yardage situations.

The Giants' season comes down to Eli. If he steps it up and brings his game up a notch or two, this team can go all the way in my opinion. If he looks like he did late last year (poor mechanics, bad reads, low completion rate), the giants will win 8 or 9 games and will fall into the bubble category.

There is just too much talent on this team though on both sides of the ball to expect fewer than 8 wins. Barring a massive onslaught of injuries, I just can't see that happening, despite the tough schedule and tough division.

Gun to my head I say 11 wins, a repeat of last year. I think Eli takes it up a notch, and the defense plays much better than last year, but the much tougher schedule offsets those improvements.

I like going long at 8.5 wins (trading 50/52 on tradesports right now).