Why You ALWAYS Raise Your Low Lock on the River

[AlanBostick]

Villain's early-street aggression made me sure he started with a pair, and so I was sure my crappy low was good, even though he had wheel cards on third and fourth street.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($3/$6), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.67 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in
Seat 6: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (1.33 SB)

Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (1.67 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (3.67 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

River - (5.67 BB)

Seat 5: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___bets___folds
Hero: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises

Total pot: (6.67 BB)

Results:
Total pot $46 | Rake $2

[Phat Mack]

Could this have been an RB (wRong Button)?

[2461Badugi]

So you believe he folded kings up?

[Alchemist]

I think it's completely reasonable for Villain to have started with two babies and put Hero on a low draw as well. He could still feel he's still ahead on 5th after catching the K kicker (as well as having a better low draw) and the bet on 6th is reasonable.

Chances are he missed his low draw on the River and bet hoping Hero missed his as well. Villain probably thinks his Kings + no low are no good since he can't beat two pair or better but I think if you're going to bet here, you may as well pay off a river raise.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's completely reasonable for Villain to have started with two babies and put Hero on a low draw as well. He could still feel he's still ahead on 5th after catching the K kicker (as well as having a better low draw) and the bet on 6th is reasonable.

Chances are he missed his low draw on the River and bet hoping Hero missed his as well. Villain probably thinks his Kings + no low are no good since he can't beat two pair or better but I think if you're going to bet here, you may as well pay off a river raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is an accurate analysis, but hero looks to have a low hand, so this is a terrible fold for villain.

[dboy23]

well you dont really have a low lock but nh.

[iggymcfly]

This play's going to work for you about 1 time in 1000. Seriously, you could play your whole life and not get a fold in this spot again. I think the chances that villian made a better low and scooped you are way better than the odds that he missed his low, missed two pair, missed trips, missed anything else he might have been drawing at, bet the river with naked kings (trying to get you to fold god knows what), and then would fold to a raise. In fact, it sounds so unlikely writing it out that I think 1000 to 1 might have been generous.

[AlanBostick]

Technically I didn't; but my read was that he wouldn't have been betting without a pair, so (if I trusted my read) my low was unbeatable.

[Andy B]

If the rake is not maxed out, this probably isn't worth it. Otherwise, there's no reason not to. Nice coup.