Choosing lines

Jim T · #1 10-13-2007, 02:35 AM

If you have a choice of lines in an NFL game, let's say:

Miami -2.5 +105
vs
Miami -3 +120

Which line do you choose? I'd say take the -2.5, but I'm not sure how big a difference in payout not pushing a 3 point win should be worth.

How much is a half point worth for a non-key number, like getting off a 5?

If this was NCAA instead of NFL, what effect would that make on your calculations?

umaga · #2 10-13-2007, 03:18 AM

According to King Yao, getting off the 3 is about 23 "cents". Obviously, will vary depending on specific data/time period/etc. Ganchrow cranked out some NCAAFB numbers on push percentage here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-footba...requencies.html

rjp · #3 10-13-2007, 10:53 AM

In the NFL you want -2.5 +105.

Assume Miami has a 57% probability of winning:

The EV of Miami -2.5 +105 is roughly 4% (see here)

The EV of Miami -3 +120 is roughly 0.4% (see here)