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#51
10-29-2007, 01:46 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] GT starting Dwyer at RB is a 1.5 point favorite? Really? [/ QUOTE ] No, now it's 2.5-3 points. Crazy. Just got 2 units on VT +2.5 +102 [/ QUOTE ] It should be the other way around, and possibly a bigger spread. Wow. BC kills at GT, and they had Choice for a little bit. VT gags at the end and BC gets lucky with onside kick and scrambling around TDs, but VT is definitely on the same level as BC. With no Choice, this makes no sense. 
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#52
10-29-2007, 02:03 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
Here's the problem with taking VA Tech, they have shown no ability to throw the ball, which is where GA Techs defensive weakness lies. In addition GA Tech is better rested, at home, and not coming off a devastating loss with a team full of head cases and crappy QBs.
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#53
10-29-2007, 02:08 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
First time posting any kind of anaylsis behind picks, i'm fully expecting to be ridiculed and faded but please if you must at least be gentle... anyway here goes: Temple +7.5 @ Ohio 1u Temple is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games and heads to Ohio with favourable match ups; Temples horrible ground attack faces an equally abysmal rush defence (temple being 104th in rush O, Ohio 109th rush def). Both teams field middle of the range passing offences and temple fields a slightly better pass defence. I'm expecting neither team to be able to establish the run leading to lots of 3rd and longs leading to punts meaning a low scoring affair where a TD advantage should be enough for Temple. Navy +3 vs ND 2u Navy has travelled well recently being 8-3 SU on the road and 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. ND in contrast has been horrible ATS at home going 2-8. Navy also has the number 1 rush offence in the nation and i don't see how the week off will have improved ND's defence enough to be able to stop it. Navy's defence may be horrid but so is ND's offence i see this game as closer to PK or even Navy-3 then Navy +3.5 which is why its a 2u play and the only one for the week at that. (Will almost definatley be adding the ML but waiting closer to kick-off in the hope of better odds) Other plays that i'm considering (especially if i get line shifts in my favour) are: Arizona st +7 @ Oregon Washington U @ Stanford +3 UTEP -7 @ Rice Maryland +2.5 @ North Carolina Flame away =) Dom [/ QUOTE ] Love the Temple pick, they have won 3 consecutive SU as underdogs and are coming off of a bye week. I was lucky enough to get them at +9. I would beware of Maryland, they have the look of a beaten team. UNC is improving, they played very sloppy against Wake last week, however they have been pretty good at home (2-2 with win over Miami, narrow losses to South Carolina and Virginia)
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#54
10-29-2007, 02:19 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
KU -16.5
News came out this morning that Nebraska QB Keller and LB Brandenburgh are out for the year. NU played @ Texas tough last Saturday, easily their best performance in weeks and still gave up nearly 300 yds rushing to Charles from UT. UT itself is an overrated team and NU is very poor right now.
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#55
10-29-2007, 02:54 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
No one like BC by a touchdown vs FSU?
And I dont like the rutgers play at all, especially on the road after such a home loss. BS -6.5 Uconn -2.5 ps. 1u on Utah State +21
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#56
10-29-2007, 05:06 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Here's the problem with taking VA Tech, they have shown no ability to throw the ball, which is where GA Techs defensive weakness lies. In addition GA Tech is better rested, at home, and not coming off a devastating loss with a team full of head cases and crappy QBs. [/ QUOTE ] ???? BOTH VT's QBs have >60% completion rates, and have thrown more TDs than INTs. Compare with GT's Bennett at barely over 50%, and an awful 2 TDs all year vs 3 INTs. GT relies far more on their rushing game, and not only Choice but 2nd stringer Grant are gone. That's almost 150 yards/game. Dwyer might look good for his season numbers, but that almost all came against mighty Samford. He's only had 10 carries for 25 yards the last 4 games. I just don't see GT having much success offensively, and that sure will tend to help VT's offense. Special teams favors VT as well.
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#57
10-29-2007, 05:16 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Here's the problem with taking VA Tech, they have shown no ability to throw the ball, which is where GA Techs defensive weakness lies. In addition GA Tech is better rested, at home, and not coming off a devastating loss with a team full of head cases and crappy QBs. [/ QUOTE ] Bingo. Georgia Tech's rush defense is one of the best in the country and their secondary is the big weakness on the defensive side of the ball. Matt Ryan lit them up, but Virginia Tech doesn't an accurate enough QB to burn them. Also, you can't just look at Dwyer's two worst games and evaluate him that way. The game before that, he ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards against Virginia and he's a young back that's continually improving. He's no Tashard Choice, but the dropoff's a lot less than you're making it out to be. Also, Rashaun Grant is playing against Virginia Tech, he missed some practices, but he's expected to be ready to go by game day. The way I'd cap this game is overall talent: +0.5 for Georgia Tech, home advantage on a Thursday night: +3.5, Choice injury: -1.5, matchups: +3, letdown for VT after losing last week +1.5. That would leave Georgia Tech as a 7 point favorite. I think you can bring that down a little bit, since it will be a low-scoring game, but I still think GT should be getting at least 4 points here and probably 5. All these people who are saying "the wrong team's getting the points" haven't followed ACC football closely at all this year.
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#58
10-29-2007, 06:01 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
GaT -2 sounds right to me.
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#59
10-29-2007, 06:24 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
S. Carolina +4.5 1 Unit Purdue +7 1 Unit Navy +3.5 1 Unit Michigan -4.5 1 Unit Stanford +3 1 Unit Missouri -4 1 Unit Boston College -6.5 2 Units UL Lafayette +30 1 Unit [/ QUOTE ] Missouri -3.5, Stanford +3.5, Michigan -4 all at Bookmaker.
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#60
10-29-2007, 07:19 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
LSU -7 -109
Even the oddsmakers are under Saban's spell. DJ Hall can't beat LSU alone. Tennessee's non-effort in the 2nd half of Bama's last game is affecting this line more than Bama's previous several games against FSU, Houston, and Ole Miss. I kind of doubt LSU will leave Hall wide open on 12 yard hitch routes every play. They tend not to concede that kind of stuff like Tennessee did. I realize the HFA will be about 5-6 points. Still... Wake -1.5 I feel like Wake is similar to the other teams Virginia has squeaked by at home, but a little better/more confident.
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