*** Official August - October Chatter Thread ***

[hedgie43]

A couple of funny quotes from the first part:

"The best you can do betting sports is 52%."

"People who invested in the stock market 40 years ago have quadrupled their money. People who have been betting sports for 40 or 50 years have, at best, broken even."

[MyTurn2Raise]

WTF....64%....where the hell is that documented?

LOL @ ESPN reporters oblivious to the role that gambling plays in making sports so damn popular

also, I thought DrBob lost last year???

kicker having a cold is clearly worth 0.77X + 1.8Y points, where X is number of expected FG opportunities from less than 37.5 yards and Y is number of expected FG opportunities from 37.5 and greater


ty for the links dankhank...now I don't have to DVR the sucker

[MyTurn2Raise]

also, DrBob is a piece of evidence I use to support that NCAAF markets are not efficient

[iggymcfly]

Does anyone think that Dr. Bob's picks might move the lines even further this week? I'm actually kind of excited about the idea of fading a 4 point move on another crappy 4-star pick.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF....64%....where the hell is that documented?

also, I thought DrBob lost last year???


[/ QUOTE ]

It's not. He's running ~53% last 5 years, everything I've seen from his pre-audited numbers shows around 57% total -- which is obviously amazing, don't get me wrong.

And yes, he had an awful bowl season, and what I saw/heard he finished down again as well.

Regardless, as I tried to show in the other thread, DrBob's results are more than 2 std deviations below normal if he runs at 57% for the 1500 bets the WSJ listed, as he said.

However, it is within 3 std devs. So
1) bad luck, or
2)not keeping up with rules changes, or
3) ???????
Profit.

[Jim T]

[ QUOTE ]
Bodog Prop I like:

Al Gore to announce he is running by November 1st. No -600. $300 to win $50

There is very little chance he is running. Reasons for no:

1) Even with the peace prize, his national approval ratings remain low.
2) Campaigns are about money and he has none.
3) The logics of setting up a campaign staff are nearly insurmountable.
4) He would have trouble getting on some ballots
5) His close friends are putting down any speculation. If he were to run I would think he would at least use his friends to float the idea
6) There is no detection of behind the scenes moves of setting up a presidential run
7) His movie and the lies in it would come under much more fierce attack if he were to run
8) He is too fat to be a president

Reasons for yes:
1) He personally has not denied it
2) He could use it as a platform to push his global warming agenda even if he knows he has no chance of winning.

I place the chances of him running at 5% or less. So, -600 has nice value. It is not a freebee though (not like the saw4 bet to clear $18m).

[/ QUOTE ]

This weekend after he won the Nobel, I was able to get an average of -253 for Clinton on Matchbook to win the Dem nomination. It's still a steal at the current -395 IMHO, except for having to tie up your money for so long.

[B00T]

Jeremy Schaap put me on total tilt

[NajdorfDefense]

haven't seen it yet, have to go home to watch it

[kaboshedx]

love the actual story they did -

shaky camera + calculators + spreadsheets = GREAT TV.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
love the actual story they did -

shaky camera + calculators + spreadsheets = GREAT TV.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to mention the unverified record---great reporting