Boat vs nit - fold?

[BDub1]

This, for me is instacall. What, 66 and QQ beat you, the 3rd fricking nuts, and you are contemplating laying this down? You really think that he puts you on the 64? C'mon, he thinks you either made a flush or have a high pair, and he has the nut flush or air. Call his mofo a$$ and shout SHIP IT!

[Kirkrrr]

[ QUOTE ]
This, for me is instacall. What, 66 and QQ beat you , the 3rd fricking nuts, and you are contemplating laying this down? You really think that he puts you on the 64? C'mon, he thinks you either made a flush or have a high pair, and he has the nut flush or air. Call his mofo a$$ and shout SHIP IT!

[/ QUOTE ]

Look again. Then again [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[btmagnetw]

AhQh is more likely than 66. so he raises PF with 66, flops the nut full house, and slightly OVERbets the pot? then when you raise, and he is 100% sure he has the best hand, he smooth calls the raise and check calls the turn?

AhQh.. raises pf. misses the flop but gets a heart draw, bets big to take it down. you raise, he puts you on a 4 or an overpair or something. calls, and check calls when he pairs his queen on the turn. makes his flush and wants you to make a crying calls with trips after the flush comes.

QQ.. why does he check call the turn? you raised the flop and followed through on the turn, why no raise? he has the nut full house and any trips/other FH aren't going anywhere.

[Renton]

to say AhQh is a more feasible hand would be one thing.

to say that AhQh is a more likely hand would be a lie.

[VENGEANCE]

I like a fold vs this typical player

[AAismyfriend]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Wow... really nasty spot. I don't think he's ever bluffing and I don't see him playing a flush this way on a paired board unless he's a complete retard, and stats indicate otherwise... I'd really, really hate calling there a lot.

To one of the other posters, no one in their right mind overbet bluffs hoping to get their opponents will lay down monsters, it's cost-prohibitive so I think you can safely toss the if-he-thinks-you-may-lay-down-a-boat-he-should-be-bluffing line out the window because 17/12's (or most rational opponents) are simply never doing that. To put another way, when was the last time you put your opponent on 2nd nuts and decided to make him lay it down?

Kirk

[/ QUOTE ]

So...fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

In a vacuum, probably. Since we're not in a vacuum, use recent history/past history/the way he's playing now/bet timing to see if you can gain any other clues. If none of those help, I think folding would be best.

Incidentally, if you have been attacking him a lot or are up on him this session this would make it a much, much easier fold.

Kirk

[/ QUOTE ]

Kirk, I agree with everything you've said in this thread. OP looks like he could easily have a flush/FH yet the nit shoves anyways. A nitty player never tries to bluff people off big hands in a spot like this, so he has the goods here like always. This is not a snap call by any means IMO, and although I could never bring myself to fold here, it is probably the right play.

[microbet]

If AhQh is his worst possible holding it's a fold.

If you think he could have a worse flush, then it's probably a call.

It would be a heck of a time for him to bluff, seems more likely that blind vs blind and all he might think he can shove a worse flush for value.

17/12 and all though it doesn't seem much like a flush draw gets there or a less than nut flush pushes river.

[aislephive]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Should post this in BBV?

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess that means that I should call, so what do you put him on? I would like some analysis. No instacall or move down [censored].

I don't think he would EVER play a flushdraw like this.
I DO think he thinks I have a flushdraw.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he thinks you would even consider folding a boat here, let alone a flush, this is a great spot to bluff. He can also put you on a flush and value shove a strong flush. He could have missed a draw and made a desperate bluff attempt, etc. It's blind on blind here as well which widens ranges considerably. You shouldn't even consider folding this, besides 17/12 is nitty but it's not like he is some ultranit, you even said he is aggressive / good. Just get the money in here and don't think twice about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, but you are just way way off in everything you're writing.

Missed draw? What draw missed?

17/12 not ultranitty?

A 17/12 floating two streets OOP and overbet-shoving when all draws hit because he thinks he might get me to fold a full house AND/OR get me to call an overbet on a paired board with a lower flush than his presumed nut flush?

Blinds vs blind so he could have a wide range calling my flop RR and pot bet on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're really naive. Not a lot of draws missed, but people are very capable of turning made hands into bluffs. Something like 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is possible, hell even a medium pair like 77/88 realizing that on the river there is almost no way they have the best hand isn't as ridiculous as you may think. A lot of good HSNL players turn different made hands into a bluff.

I'm saying there are different hands people can show up with here that bluff. Not to mention flushes make up a lot his range IMO.

17/12 is a measure of how loose or tight somebody is preflop, it doesn't mean a lot postflop. There are some extremely aggressive players with a vpip in the teens who use their tight image to make a lot of bluffs. A lot of LAG players are actually nittier postflop than guys who play tight.

I don't even think a bluff is very likely, I never said it was. I'm saying that it is a possibility that shouldn't be ignored, and besides that you can't be sure that he won't value shove worse.

I also never said his range was wide, I said his range is naturally wider in a blind battle because people are more aggressive in blind battles and can do some pretty wild [censored].

I'm probably a little naive myself, I just don't make ridiculous folds like this without a good reason to. We're afraid of two hands of which there are extremely few possible combinations of, it's a blind battle, we have a laggy image, and we have the top of our range. Villain is tight preflop, but you described him as a "good and aggressive nit." That seems to me like he is solid but not some supernit who nutpeddles.

Also, I would expect him to go for a river c/r with QQ. Any hand that calls the river shove is betting the river when checked to anyways, at least by checking he can induce a bluff and almost get us to committ with a good made hand that could very well fold to an overbet shove.

[MezmerizePLZ]

omg really sick hand...

[whorasaurus]

wow. I think you need to call. Villain's range here is just too wide to lay this down. The fact that its blind v. blind really makes this hand nuts.

The only hand I really fear from villain is QQ here. But I just dont see the nut house open shoving this river. It looks like he has the nut flush, or 77+ that he turned into a bluff. Sick sick sick. You're hand is too strong. Call.